Phil’s Shadow Signals Six‑Week Winter as Hundreds of Animals Offer Split Forecasts
Updated (9 articles)
Phil’s Shadow Triggers Traditional Six‑Week Winter Call At Gobbler’s Knob on Feb. 2, Punxsutawney Phil emerged, saw his shadow and announced six more weeks of winter, a result echoed by handlers and the crowd of tens of thousands despite single‑digit Fahrenheit temperatures that forced organizers to limit his outdoor time and direct spectators to take selfies from a stage [1][3][8].
Dozens of Regional Animals Issue Competing Predictions Staten Island Chuck, Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee, a Havanese named Gidget and several others also forecast a prolonged winter, while Colorado’s Flatiron Freddy, opossums and other mascots predicted early spring; tally counts vary, with WBNS and King5 reporting 32 winter versus 31 spring forecasts, AP noting an early 25‑22 split, and a later AP tally of 15‑13, illustrating a near‑even national outlook [1][2][3][4].
Michael Venos Anticipates About One Hundred Animal Prognostications Groundhog‑day tracker Michael Venos expects roughly 100 animal forecasts across the U.S., Canada and beyond this season, highlighting the tradition’s growth beyond Phil and noting the quirky inclusion of Flatiron Freddy, a taxidermied marmot presented as a “groundhog mascot” in Boulder [1][2].
Historical Record Shows Low Predictive Accuracy Phil has seen his shadow 110 times and missed it 21 times since 1887, yet NOAA analyses rate his accuracy between 30 % and 40 % over the past two decades, with the BBC citing a 35 % success rate and AP reporting roughly 40 %—all well below random chance [5][6][8][9].
Buckeye Chuck’s Early‑Spring Call Contrasts Phil’s Winter Forecast In Marion, Ohio, Buckeye Chuck emerged without a shadow, signaling an early spring, while Phil’s winter prediction dominates national media; the National Weather Service meanwhile projects colder‑than‑average conditions in the Eastern U.S. and warmer weather in the West, underscoring a mixed seasonal outlook [7][6].
Sources
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1.
WBNS: Punxsutawney Phil and a Dozen‑Plus Animals Forecast Winter on Groundhog Day: Details Phil’s shadow, safety‑limited appearance, and a roster of over 30 animal forecasters producing a near‑even split .
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2.
King5: Punxsutawney Phil and a Dozen Other Animals Forecast 2026 Winter Weather: Highlights Phil’s prediction, dozens of regional animal forecasts, and emphasizes Flatiron Freddy’s unique status .
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3.
AP: Punxsutawney Phil Forecasts Six More Weeks of Wintry Weather: Reports Phil’s shadow, crowd reaction, Staten Island Chuck’s matching call, and a 25‑22 winter‑spring tally .
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AP: Punxsutawney Phil Sees Shadow, Forecasts Six More Weeks of Winter: Notes Phil’s prediction, 15‑13 early tally, and NOAA’s 40 % accuracy figure .
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BBC: Groundhog Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil’s Forecast and Its Track Record: Provides background on the ceremony and cites NOAA’s 35 % accuracy rate .
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CNN: Punxsutawney Phil Predicts Six More Weeks of Winter Amid Mixed Seasonal Outlook: Combines Phil’s forecast with NOAA’s 35 % accuracy, last year’s missed call, and NWS mixed February outlook .
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WBNS: Buckeye Chuck Predicts Early Spring While Phil Calls for More Winter: Covers Buckeye Chuck’s no‑shadow early‑spring prediction and Phil’s winter call .
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WBNS: Phil’s Shadow Marks Six‑Week Winter Forecast on Groundhog Day 2026: Details Phil’s shadow, historical shadow count (110 sightings), and NOAA’s 30‑35 % accuracy range .
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King5: Punxsutawney Phil Predicts Six More Weeks of Winter on Groundhog Day 2026: Reiterates Phil’s shadow, crowd size, historical record, and NOAA’s low accuracy assessment .
Videos (1)
Timeline
1887 – Punxsutawney holds its first Groundhog Day ceremony, establishing a yearly tradition where Phil emerges from Gobbler’s Knob to forecast the season, a practice rooted in German folklore and later popularized by the 1993 film “Groundhog Day” [7][5].
1993 – The release of the movie “Groundhog Day” boosts national interest in the Punxsutawney celebration, turning the modest local event into a widely televised cultural phenomenon [4][7].
2024 – Phil records a rare “no‑shadow” outcome, signaling an early spring; it becomes only the most recent of 21 non‑shadow sightings since 1887 [7].
2025 – Phil again sees his shadow, yet February temperatures stay near normal and March becomes the sixth‑warmest on record for the United States, highlighting the gap between the folklore prediction and actual climate trends [2].
2025 – The winter season splits dramatically: the Eastern U.S. endures bitter cold and historic ice storms, while the West experiences record‑warm conditions at nearly 150 sites, illustrating regional climate extremes [2].
2025 – NOAA analysis shows Phil’s forecasts are correct about 35 % of the time over the past two decades, indicating his predictions are no better than chance [1][2].
Feb 2, 2026 – At dawn, Phil emerges from his stump, sees his shadow and announces “six more weeks of winter,” the most common outcome in his record [7][9].
Feb 2, 2026 – Tens of thousands gather at Gobbler’s Knob in single‑digit Fahrenheit weather, reacting with cheers, boos and bundled selfies as organizers limit Phil’s outdoor time for safety [3][4][6].
Feb 2, 2026 – Staten Island Chuck, General Beauregard Lee, Gidget the Havanese and other regional animals also forecast a prolonged winter, while Flatiron Freddy and several opossums predict early spring, creating a near‑even national tally of 32 winter versus 31 spring calls [6][8].
Feb 2, 2026 – Michael Venos projects that about one hundred animal forecasts will be recorded across North America this season, reflecting the growing popularity of the tradition beyond Phil [6][8].
Feb 2, 2026 – NOAA reiterates Phil’s overall accuracy at roughly 35 % over the past twenty years, underscoring the limited scientific value of the shadow‑based forecast [1].
Feb 2, 2026 – AccuWeather long‑range expert Paul Pastelok warns, “clouds and ‘microflakes’ moving into Punxsutawney” will keep temperatures below average across the eastern United States for the coming week [4].
Feb 2, 2026 – The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts mixed February conditions: colder‑than‑average temperatures in the East, above‑average warmth in the West and Southern Plains, and roughly equal chances elsewhere [2].
Feb 2, 2026 – Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck emerges at the Marion County Fairgrounds, sees no shadow and predicts an early spring, marking his 47th annual forecast and contrasting Phil’s winter call [5].
Feb 2, 2026 – Climate analyses reveal that for about 75 % of the United States, winter temperatures are rising faster than any other season, making extreme cold events like this year’s East‑coast freeze the exception rather than the rule [2].
External resources (11 links)
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqZnhsUakIU (cited 2 times)
- https://www.noaa.gov/heritage/stories/grading-groundhogs (cited 4 times)
- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/groundhog-day-forecasts-and-climate-history (cited 3 times)
- https://blogs.loc.gov/folklife/2022/02/groundhog-day-ancient-origins-of-a-modern-celebration/ (cited 1 times)
- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2025 (cited 1 times)
- http://www.stormfax.com/ghogday.htm (cited 2 times)
- https://countdowntogroundhogday.com/predictions/2026_predictions (cited 2 times)
- https://www.groundhog.org/groundhog-day/history-past-predictions/ (cited 2 times)
- http://countdowntogroundhogday.com (cited 1 times)
- https://countdowntogroundhogday.com/ (cited 1 times)
- https://wmrn.iheart.com/content/2026-01-09-buckeye-chuck-prepares-for-47th-annual-forecast-in-marion-ohio/ (cited 1 times)