Meloni’s 71% Approval Persists as Italy Prepares March Referendum Amid Franco‑Italian Tension
Updated (2 articles)
Strong Personal Trust Despite National Pessimism Seventy‑one percent of Italians say they trust Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni even though the same share believes the country is heading in the wrong direction, revealing a paradox in public sentiment [1]. YouTrend data show her party, Fratelli d’Italia, at 29.7 % voting intention, outpacing the 26 % achieved in the 2022 legislative election and the 28.8 % in the 2024 European vote [1]. These figures suggest growing momentum for Meloni’s right‑wing coalition despite broader domestic pessimism.
European Confidence Rankings Favor Meloni The 2026 Eurobarometer places Meloni at 45 % confidence among Europeans, ahead of Germany’s Friedrich Merz (33 %) and France’s Emmanuel Macron (15 %) [1]. The survey underscores her relative popularity across the EU, contrasting with the declining fortunes of traditional centrist leaders. Analysts cite this as a factor reinforcing Italy’s perceived political stability.
Judicial Reform Referendum Set for Late March Italy will hold a two‑day referendum on 22‑23 March to decide on sweeping reforms of the magistracy [1]. The vote is viewed as a critical test of Meloni’s authority, with opponents warning it could destabilize the judiciary while supporters argue it will increase efficiency. The timing aligns with her party’s rising poll numbers, adding strategic weight to the upcoming ballot.
Deranque Killing Triggers Diplomatic Row French far‑right activist Quentin Deranque was killed in Lyon on 19 February, prompting Meloni to label the incident “a wound for all Europe” on X [2]. President Emmanuel Macron, concluding a state visit to India, rebuked her publicly, demanding she cease commenting on French affairs [2]. Palazzo Chigi described Meloni’s statement as an expression of solidarity with the French people, while Italian officials expressed “stupeur” at Macron’s criticism, highlighting rising tension between the two governments [2].
Sources
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1.
Le Monde: Meloni’s High Approval Defies Italy’s Pessimism as Europe Wobbles: article emphasizes 71 % personal trust, 29.7 % party poll, Eurobarometer lead, upcoming March referendum, and Meloni’s comment on French politics, framing Italy as stable amid EU instability.
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Le Monde: Death of French Far‑Right Activist Sparks Diplomatic Row Between France and Italy: article focuses on Deranque’s killing, Meloni’s X tribute, Macron’s rebuke from India, internal Italian security crackdown, and the diplomatic tension it created.
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Timeline
Late 2025 – Italy closes the left‑wing social centre Askatasuna in Turin as part of a broader security crackdown on far‑left groups, underscoring the Meloni government’s hard‑line stance [2].
Jan 2026 – The 2026 Eurobarometer records 45 % confidence in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, outpacing Germany’s Friedrich Merz (33 %) and France’s Emmanuel Macron (15 %), highlighting her relative popularity across Europe [1].
Jan 2026 – YouTrend poll shows Fratelli d’Italia at 29.7 % voting intention, surpassing the 26 % achieved in the 2022 legislative election and the 28.8 % in the 2024 European vote, indicating growing momentum for Meloni’s party [1].
Mid‑Feb 2026 – French far‑right activist Quentin Deranque is killed in Lyon, prompting Italian neo‑fascist circles to invoke the 1970s “années de plomb” and rally around his death [2].
19 Feb 2026 – While concluding a state visit to India, President Emmanuel Macron rebukes Meloni on X, telling her to stop “commenting on what happens elsewhere,” directly referencing her remarks on Deranque’s killing [2].
20 Feb 2026 – Meloni posts on X that Deranque’s death is a “wound for all Europe,” expressing solidarity with the French people and framing the incident as a continental tragedy [2].
20‑21 Feb 2026 – Staff at Palazzo Chigi react with stunned silence to Macron’s rebuke, describing Meloni’s statement as “proximity to the French people struck by this terrible affair” while denying any political interference [2].
20‑21 Feb 2026 – Meloni publicly intervenes in French politics after Deranque’s death, signaling her willingness to influence the tense political climate in neighboring France [1].
22‑23 Mar 2026 – Italy holds a two‑day judicial‑reform referendum on proposed changes to the magistracy, a key political test that could affect Meloni’s domestic standing [1].
2026 (ongoing) – Italy remains politically stable while France experiences governmental fragility and Germany faces rising far‑right pressure, positioning Meloni’s Italy as a rare case of solid support amid broader European instability [1].