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Ukraine Opens Export Centres as Russia Claims Border Village Capture Amid Starlink Block

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Russian Ministry of Defence Announces Capture of Sydorivka Without Verifiable Evidence The Russian MoD reported that the 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade seized the village of Sydorivka in Sumy Oblast on February 8, 2026, presenting the operation as part of a broader “border‑village” offensive [1]. Independent analysts at ISW found no satellite imagery or open‑source confirmation of the village’s occupation [1]. The claim aligns with a pattern of small‑scale raids used to project a narrative of a collapsing front despite the absence of sustained territorial gains [1].

SpaceX’s Starlink Deactivation Triggers Russian Frontline Communication Complaints On February 5, SpaceX disabled unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine, cutting off a significant portion of civilian‑run satellite internet [1]. Russian milbloggers quickly attributed the loss to “extremely unfortunate” communication shortages for frontline units, suggesting the block hampers radio and satellite links [1]. The incident underscores the reliance of both sides on commercial satellite services for battlefield coordination.

Shahed Drones Modified With Rear‑Facing R‑60 Missiles Indicate Defensive Shift Ukrainian forces reported downing a Shahed drone equipped with R‑60 air‑to‑air missiles mounted rearward, a configuration that enables the UAV to defend itself against interceptors rather than strike aircraft [1]. This modification reflects a tactical evolution toward self‑protection for loitering munitions [1]. Analysts note the change may reduce the drones’ offensive payload capacity while enhancing survivability.

Ukraine Declares Defence Industry Export‑Ready, Launches Ten Export Centres President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the opening of ten export centres across Northern and Baltic Europe, signaling that Ukraine’s defence sector can now supply foreign customers [1]. Joint drone production lines have been established in Germany (mid‑2025) and the United Kingdom, marking a significant step toward self‑sufficiency and integration with NATO partners [1]. The move aims to monetize domestic arms production and strengthen allied supply chains.

Ukrainian Strikes Damage Kapustin Yar Launch Complex Facilities The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that January attacks hit a technical facility, an assembly building, and a logistics warehouse at the Kapustin Yar launch complex, which supports intermediate‑range ballistic missiles [1]. Damage to these structures is expected to disrupt Russia’s missile production and testing schedule [1]. The strike demonstrates Ukraine’s capability to target high‑value strategic assets deep within Russian territory.

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Timeline

Spring–Summer 2025 – Russia conducts a partial battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) campaign that strikes Ukrainian logistics and supply routes behind the front, degrading lines of communication and creating conditions for ground infiltration in the Pokrovsk sector [2].

Mid‑2025 – Ukraine opens ten export centres across Northern and Baltic Europe and launches joint drone‑production lines in Germany and the United Kingdom, signalling growing defence‑industry self‑sufficiency [3].

31 July – 26 Nov 2025 – Russian forces advance an average of 0.12 km per day toward Pokrovsk, covering only 66 % of the town after 118 days of occupation, indicating a low‑tempo, protracted offensive [5].

15 Aug – 20 Nov 2025 – Across the front, Russian troops gain an average of 9.3 km² per day, with the eastern Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia axes showing the highest activity, while Ukrainian counter‑attacks halt further Russian moves north of the Donetska Railway in Pokrovsk [5].

Oct 2025 – Fog and rain limit Ukrainian UAV flights, allowing 30‑40 Russian infiltrators per event to breach the “wall of drones,” while muddy roads hamper Ukrainian armored logistics and increase vulnerability to drone strikes [2].

Oct 2025 – Russia reports 25,000 casualties in the Pokrovsk offensive after committing 170,000‑220,000 troops and losing five divisions’ worth of tanks and armored vehicles during the 21‑month push from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk [2].

27 Nov 2025 – President Vladimir Putin, speaking in Bishkek, claims Russia has seized Kupyansk, captured 70 % of Pokrovsk and encircled Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, while rejecting the U.S. 28‑point peace plan and demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from all unoccupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson [4].

27 Nov 2025 – Ukrainian prosecutors document the execution of five Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces in Hulyaipole, adding to war‑crime allegations amid the contested Pokrovsk offensive [4].

28 Nov 2025 – President Volodymyr Zelensky announces the resignation of Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, describing it as a “reset” and forming a new negotiating team that includes the MFA, NSDC and intelligence services [4].

28 Nov 2025 – Ukrainian officials confirm a separate execution of a POW in Hnativka near Pokrovsk, further illustrating Russian war‑crime claims in the region [4].

Late Nov 2025 – Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko meets Putin at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, reaffirming Belarus’s alliance with Russia and offering to host Ukraine‑Russia talks [5].

Dec 2025 – Despite Putin’s claim that Pokrovsk has fallen, Ukrainian commanders report holding the northern sector up to the railway line, raising flags and using live drone feeds to coordinate defense; a Latvian deputy commander warns that a Ukrainian loss would endanger neighboring European states [1].

Jan 2026 – Ukrainian forces strike Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch complex, damaging a technical facility, an assembly building and a logistics warehouse that support intermediate‑range ballistic‑missile production [3].

5 Feb 2026 – SpaceX disables unregistered Starlink terminals in Russia, prompting Russian milbloggers to blame the block for frontline communication shortages and label it “extremely unfortunate” [3].

8 Feb 2026 – The Russian Ministry of Defence announces the seizure of Sydorivka in Sumy Oblast, a claim unverified by open‑source evidence, as part of a cognitive‑warfare narrative featuring tiny border raids intended to suggest a collapsing front [3].

Early Feb 2026 – Shahed drones equipped with rear‑facing R‑60 air‑to‑air missiles are observed being shot down, indicating a shift toward defensive capabilities for the drones rather than offensive strikes on aircraft [3].

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