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Cuba Offers Dialogue While Rejecting U.S. Regime‑Change Push Amid New Oil Tariffs

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Cuban Officials Signal Willingness for Dialogue, Reject Regime‑Change Condition Deputy foreign minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told CNN Havana is ready for “meaningful” talks but will not discuss its constitutional system, mirroring what he sees as U.S. reluctance to discuss its own politics [1]. The statement follows months of heightened U.S. pressure and underscores Cuba’s insistence on sovereignty in any negotiation [1].

U.S. Administration Escalates Pressure with Regime‑Change Rhetoric and Oil Tariffs Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly said Washington “would love to see” regime change in Cuba, while President Donald Trump warned that Cuba is “ready to fall” and promised a “kind” future deal [1][3]. An executive order signed on Jan. 30 imposes tariffs on goods from any nation supplying oil to Havana, explicitly targeting Mexico’s PEMEX shipments [4]. The move aims to force Havana back to the negotiating table amid an energy crisis [1][3][4].

Mexico Becomes Cuba’s Main Oil Lifeline as Venezuelan Supplies End After the U.S. halted Venezuelan oil following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, PEMEX delivered nearly 20,000 barrels per day to Cuba from Jan.–Sept. 2025 [2][4]. Satellite‑tracking data shows shipments fell to roughly 7,000 barrels daily after Rubio’s September visit to Mexico City [2][4]. Sheinbaum maintains the pause is temporary and driven by contract terms, not U.S. pressure [4].

Humanitarian Aid Initiative Amid Looming Energy Shortage President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the dispatch of food and other humanitarian assistance to Cuba within days, framing it as a diplomatic solution to the island’s worsening fuel shortages [2]. Cuba blames U.S. sanctions for blackouts and describes the pressure as “equivalent to war” [1]. Sheinbaum warned that the U.S. tariff threat could trigger a humanitarian crisis if oil flows are further restricted [2].

Discrepancies Over Shipment Status and Deal Prospects CNN reports Trump offered a conditional deal to avoid a total oil embargo, potentially involving the return of seized property to exiles [1]. In contrast, the AP piece on Feb. 1 notes Trump merely announced that the U.S. is “starting to talk to Cuba” without detailing any concrete agreement [3]. Sheinbaum’s statements emphasize contractual obligations over political pressure, highlighting differing narratives about the future of oil shipments [4].

Sources

Timeline

Oct 1962 – The United States imposes a naval quarantine of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the last time Washington considers a blockade of the island, a precedent cited by officials as they weigh a new naval restriction in 2026 [3].

Jan 3, 2026 – U.S. forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, ending Venezuela’s subsidized oil flow to Cuba; the operation kills 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel who were protecting Maduro, underscoring Cuba’s direct involvement in the Venezuelan regime [1][11].

Jan 11, 2026 – President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that “there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba” and urges Havana to strike a deal “before it is too late,” linking the warning to the recent Maduro capture and a broader push for regime change [1][6][11].

Jan 12, 2026 – Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel writes on X, “No one dictates what we do,” rejecting Trump’s ultimatum and pledging to defend Cuba’s sovereignty against U.S. pressure [4].

Jan 27, 2026 – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announces a “temporary halt” to PEMEX oil shipments to Cuba, calling the pause a sovereign decision and noting that daily deliveries have fallen from about 20,000 to 7,000 barrels after U.S. diplomatic pressure [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – Speaking in Urbandale, Iowa, Trump tells reporters Cuba “will be failing pretty soon” and is “very close to failing,” warning that the island faces imminent economic collapse without specifying the mechanism [5].

Jan 29, 2026 – U.S. diplomats in Havana warn that “nothing is getting in” and “no more oil is coming,” while the White House mulls its first naval blockade of Cuba since 1962; Mexico refuses to send oil, calling the decision sovereign, and energy analyst Jorge Piñón warns that a full “oil valve” shutdown would trigger an unavoidable economic collapse [3].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump signs an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from any country that supplies oil to Cuba, explicitly targeting Mexico’s PEMEX shipments and aiming to intensify pressure on Havana amid its deepening fuel crisis [9].

Feb 1, 2026 – President Sheinbaum pledges to dispatch humanitarian food aid to Cuba within days, responding to the island’s growing needs while emphasizing that Mexico seeks a diplomatic, humanitarian solution to the oil‑supply dispute [7].

Feb 1, 2026 – Aboard Air Force One, Trump announces the United States “is starting to talk to Cuba,” predicts the Cuban regime “is ready to fall,” and says “Cuba would be free again,” while the administration continues to cut Cuban oil supplies and threaten tariffs on supporting nations [8].

Feb 5, 2026 – Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío tells CNN that Cuba is “open to meaningful dialogue” but will not discuss its constitutional system, rejecting U.S. calls for regime change; Secretary of State Marco Rubio replies that Washington “would love to see” regime change, while Trump offers a conditional deal to avoid a total oil embargo [2].

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