November Export Growth Reverses October Decline Exports rose 5.9% year‑on‑year to $330.3 billion in November 2025, ending a 1.1% contraction in October and marking the strongest monthly increase since early 2024[1][2]. The rebound helped lift total exports to $330.3 billion while imports rose to $218.6 billion, narrowing the trade gap[1]. Analysts view the surge as a direct response to the tariff reductions enacted under the recent trade truce[2].

U.S. Shipments Plunge Amid Ongoing Trade Truce Shipments to the United States fell about 29% year‑on‑year, marking the eighth straight month of double‑digit declines[1][2]. The sharp drop reflects weakening U.S. demand as the truce curtails tariff pressures but does not revive American import appetite[1]. Meanwhile, overall imports grew modestly 1.9% to $218.6 billion, underscoring a still‑constrained domestic market[1].

Eleven‑Month Surplus Tops One Trillion Dollars The January‑November trade surplus reached roughly $1.08 trillion, surpassing the $992 billion recorded for all of 2024 and setting a new annual high[1][2]. This represents an 8.7% increase over the previous year’s surplus, highlighting the impact of export rebounds despite weaker U.S. sales[2]. The record surplus underscores China’s continued ability to generate large trade inflows even as factory activity contracts[1].

Trade Truce and Manufacturing Outlook Remain Mixed year‑long truce negotiated in late October 2025 in South Korea saw the United States lower tariffs while China pledged to halt export controls on rare‑earth minerals[1][2]. Official factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month, prompting economists to caution that external demand recovery remains tentative[1]. Forecasts anticipate around 5% annual GDP growth in 2026, with the Central Economic Work Conference expected to set policy priorities for stability and progress[1]. The Politburo, under Xi Jinping, discussed balancing growth targets with the need to maintain the trade surplus momentum[1].

Analysts Forecast Export Share Gains by 2030 Morgan Stanley projects that China will increase its share of global exports by 2030 as advanced‑manufacturing sectors expand, despite current factory contraction[2]. The firm attributes potential gains to the tariff‑reduction environment and diversification of export markets toward Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America[2]. This outlook suggests that the November rebound could be an early indicator of a longer‑term shift in China’s export composition and competitiveness[2].