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Hezbollah Resists Disarmament as Lebanon Advances Southern Phase Amid Rising Northern Strikes

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Southern Disarmament Phase Completed by Lebanese Armed Forces The Lebanese Armed Forces finished the first phase of disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River without active resistance from the group, and Israeli airstrikes in that area have sharply declined since January 2026, suggesting a temporary weakening of Hezbollah’s southern capabilities. [1]

Hezbollah Reconstitutes Arsenal and Leadership Israeli intelligence estimates Hezbollah has rebuilt at least one‑fifth of its pre‑war weapons stockpiles through domestic production and smuggling from Syria, appointed new commanders, and recruited fighters continuously since December 2024, while securing roughly $1 billion in Iranian funding for its social‑service network. [1]

Cognitive‑Warfare Campaign Delays Northern Disarmament Hezbollah has launched a coordinated information campaign threatening protests, spreading claims of division within the LAF, and portraying the disarmament effort as an existential threat to Lebanon’s Shia community, thereby pressuring officials to postpone actions north of the Litani. [1]

International Backing Seen as Crucial for State Supremacy The United States and European allies are urged to finance southern reconstruction, subsidize LAF salaries, provide intelligence and surveillance, and condition aid on anti‑corruption reforms to strengthen Lebanese state institutions and counter Hezbollah’s resurgence. [1]

Israeli Targeting Shifts to Central and Northern Lebanon With southern strikes decreasing, Israel plans to focus future airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in central and northern Lebanon, a move that could erode Hezbollah’s claim of protecting Lebanon and increase civilian discontent in those regions. [1]

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Timeline

2024 (Nov) – A U.S.-brokered ceasefire ends a year‑long Israel‑Hezbollah war, establishing a framework that obliges Lebanon to begin dismantling non‑state weapons south of the Litani River [3].

2025 (Sep) – The Lebanese government approves the disarmament proposal; the Lebanese Armed Forces start clearing tunnels, rocket sites and other Hezbollah infrastructure in the south, aiming to finish by the end of 2025 [3].

2025 (Nov 20) – Iran publicly denies that Saudi Arabia is mediating its stalled nuclear talks, a claim dismissed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as “a pure lie” [7].

2025 (Nov 25‑28) – Khamenei orders a crackdown on hijab violations after student protests, while U.S. officials reveal that Iran has funneled roughly $1 billion to Hezbollah through UAE‑based channels [7].

2025 (Nov 26) – Iraqi militias linked to Iran launch a drone strike on the Emirati‑operated Khor Mor gas field in Iraqi Kurdistan, sparking a fire and cutting regional electricity supply [7].

2025 (Nov 27) – Israeli officials hold a “special discussion” and warn that a lack of Hezbollah disarmament could trigger a broader Israeli operation along the Lebanese border [7].

2025 (Nov 28) – Israel sets a Dec 7 deadline for the Lebanese Armed Forces to show measurable progress in disarming Hezbollah, tying it to upcoming visits by Pope Leo XIV and U.S. Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus [7]; the LAF’s Southern Sector Commander claims 80 % of the disarmament plan is already completed [7].

2025 (Dec 1) – U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack warns Iraq that continued militia support for Hezbollah could invite Israeli strikes, while Israeli intelligence reports that Iran is supplying arms, drones and missiles to Hezbollah, the Houthis and other groups for a possible Israel‑Hezbollah conflict [6].

2025 (Dec 18) – Israeli jets strike Hezbollah training compounds and weapons sites across south and northeast Lebanon, a day before the second U.S.–brokered cease‑fire monitoring meeting, aiming to pressure disarmament [4].

2025 (Dec 18) – Lebanese army chief Gen. Rodolph Haikal meets French, U.S. and Saudi officials in Paris to discuss boosting Lebanese border forces; France’s Gen. Fabien Mandon pledges support, stating “our common objective is to maintain stability and lasting peace while respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty” [4].

2025 (Dec 18) – Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri tells parliament that Israel’s “fire belt” is a political message aimed at the Paris talks [4].

2025 (Dec 18) – The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reports 127 civilian deaths from Israeli strikes since September 2024, increasing U.S. diplomatic pressure on Lebanon to accelerate Hezbollah disarmament [4].

2025 (Dec 19) – The U.S., France and UNIFIL convene the second cease‑fire monitoring committee to review compliance with the 2024 agreement and assess progress on southern Lebanon’s disarmament [4].

2026 (Jan 8) – The Lebanese army announces it has taken over security in the Hezbollah‑dominated south, declaring the first phase “effective and tangible” while noting remaining hazards such as unexploded ordnance and tunnels [1].

2026 (Jan 8) – The Lebanese Armed Forces confirm completion of the first phase of southern deployment, having cleared tunnels and rocket sites since September, and schedule a presidential‑prime‑minister meeting to plan the next phase between the Litani and Awali rivers, including Sidon [3].

2026 (Jan 16) – The “Axis of Resistance” begins reorienting as Iran’s internal crisis deepens; Hezbollah remains central but embattled, the Houthis emerge as the strongest non‑state member with long‑range capabilities, and Iraqi militias are seen as potential fall‑backs for Tehran [2].

2026 (Feb 18) – Hezbollah resists full disarmament by launching a cognitive‑warfare campaign that threatens protests and frames the process as an existential threat to Shia communities, while Israeli intelligence estimates the group has rebuilt at least one‑fifth of its pre‑war arsenal and secured roughly $1 billion in Iranian funding [5].

2026 (Feb 18) – The Lebanese state makes limited progress disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani, with Israeli airstrikes dropping but occasional one‑off strikes persisting; Israel plans to shift future strikes to central and northern Lebanon where Hezbollah remains active [5].

2026 (Feb 18) – International partners are urged to fund southern reconstruction, subsidize LAF salaries and provide intelligence, conditioning aid on anti‑corruption reforms to strengthen state institutions over Hezbollah [5].

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