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Oscars 2026 Predictions Highlight Record‑Breaking Nominations and Potential First‑Time Winners

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  • TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release.
    TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release.
    Image: Newsweek
    TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Source Full size
  • TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release.
    TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release.
    Image: Newsweek
    TEYANA TAYLOR as Perfidia in “One Battle After Another.” A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Source Full size

Dominant Contenders and Record Nominations: Paul Thomas Anderson’s war drama One Battle After Another is projected to sweep Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director, positioning Anderson for his inaugural Oscar win after decades of critical acclaim [1]. Ryan Coogler’s vampire thriller Sinners leads the field with 16 nominations, surpassing the previous record of 14 and targeting Original Screenplay, Score, the new Achievement in Casting, and possibly Best Cinematography for Autumn Durald Arkapaw [1]. The sheer volume of nods underscores a shift toward genre‑heavy, high‑concept filmmaking within the Academy’s current voting bloc [1].

Potential Historic Acting Wins: Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme could make him the youngest Best Actor winner since Adrien Brody in 2003, marking his third nomination and a possible milestone for the 30‑year‑old [1]. Jessie Buckley is identified as a strong Best Actress contender for her role as a grieving mother in Hamnet, with analysts noting the Academy’s recent appetite for Shakespeare‑related narratives [1]. Stellan Skarsgård, despite competition from Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another, is favored for Best Supporting Actor for his wistful turn in Sentimental Value [1].

Genre Films Poised for Category Success: Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters is expected to secure an Oscar in a musical category, driven by the viral popularity of its song “Golden” [1]. Composer Ludwig Göransson’s blues‑infused score for Sinners receives particular praise for enhancing the film’s horror atmosphere, bolstering its chances in the Original Score race [1]. Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s cinematography on Sinners could break gender barriers by delivering the Academy’s first female win in Best Cinematography [1].

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Timeline

Jan 4, 2026 – Critics’ Choice Awards honor One Battle After Another with Best Picture and Best Director, Timothée Chalamet wins Best Actor for Marty Supreme, and Sinners captures Original Screenplay and the inaugural Casting award, signaling early Oscar momentum[8].

Jan 7, 2026 – Actor Awards nominations reveal One Battle After Another leading with a “record seven” acting nods, while Sinners and Marty Supreme also secure major acting nominations; Kate Hudson’s surprise Lead Actress nod adds unpredictability to the race[5].

Jan 7, 2026 – Industry analysts note the Oscar nomination window closes Jan 16 and the final voting deadline is Mar 5, framing the upcoming awards calendar as a “tight race” for contenders[4].

Jan 22, 2026 – The Academy announces the 98th Oscar nominations: Sinners tops the field with a “record 16 nominations,” breaking the previous 14‑nomination record held by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land; One Battle After Another follows with 13; a new Casting Directors category boosts totals; Warner Bros. Discovery earns 33 nominations, which CEO David Zaslav calls a “golden moment” for the studio[1†,2†,6†,7†,9†,10†,12†].

Jan 22, 2026 – Cinemark and Regal unveil “Oscar Movie Week” (Mar 9‑15) and Regal’s Best Picture Showcase (Mar 6‑15), offering a $40 festival pass and $7.99 tickets per title, to bring nominated films to theaters ahead of the ceremony[9†,11†].

Mar 1, 2026 – The Actor Awards stream on Netflix, providing a high‑profile platform for the year’s top acting talent just weeks before the Oscars[5].

Mar 6‑15, 2026 – Regal screens all ten Best Picture nominees daily, pricing each showing at $7.99 and running an “And the Award Goes To” series that spotlights each contender, further building audience engagement[11].

Mar 9‑15, 2026 – Cinemark’s Oscar Movie Week runs across its venues, featuring every nominated film and short, with a $40 pass granting unlimited access and a 50 % popcorn discount, creating a festival‑like countdown to the awards[9†,11†].

Mar 15, 2026 – The 98th Academy Awards take place at the Dolby Theatre, beginning at 7 p.m. ET, hosted by Conan O’Brien, broadcast live on ABC and Hulu; the ceremony marks the first year with an Achievement in Casting category and celebrates Sinners’ historic 16 nominations[10†,12†].

2029 – YouTube’s exclusive streaming deal for the Oscars is slated to commence, expanding the ceremony’s digital distribution beyond the current ABC/Hulu partnership[10].

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