June 2022 – The U.S. Consumer Price Index spikes to a 9.1% year‑over‑year increase, marking the highest inflation rate since the early 1980s and setting the backdrop for later policy debates [3].

January 2025 – Inflation eases to 3% year‑over‑year, contradicting later claims that the Trump administration inherited “the worst inflation in history” [3].

October 2025 – A short‑term dip in the trade deficit creates a misleading 78% reduction figure that President Trump later posts on Truth Social, a number analysts warn is unsustainable [1].

Q1 2025 (Jan‑Mar) – Real GDP contracts, signaling the first quarterly slowdown of the year and foreshadowing a modest overall growth pace [4].

Q2 2025 (Apr‑Jun) – Real GDP rebounds with a 3.8% annualized gain, providing a brief surge amid mixed economic signals [4].

Q3 2025 (Jul‑Sep) – Real GDP expands further to a 4.4% annualized rate, the strongest quarterly performance since 2022 [4].

Full‑year 2025 – The economy grows by 2.2% annually, below the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024 and trailing every year of the Biden administration [1][6].

2025 (full year) – The United States posts a historic merchandise trade deficit of $1.241 trillion, a 2.1% rise from 2024, despite tariff hikes aimed at shrinking the gap [5].

Jan‑Nov 2025 – The trade deficit reaches $840 billion YTD, up 4% from the same period in 2024, reflecting persistent import pressures [4].

2025 – Tariff revenue jumps by roughly 200%, with the Treasury collecting $187 billion more than in 2024, underscoring the fiscal impact of the tariff regime [2].

2025 – A Harvard study finds tariffs add about 0.75 percentage point to inflation and that U.S. consumers bear roughly 43% of the tariff‑induced cost, challenging the administration’s narrative that foreign producers shoulder the burden [4].

2025 – Goldman Sachs estimates tariffs lifted inflation by 0.5 percentage point, with an additional 0.3 point projected for the first half of 2026 [2].

2025 – The S&P 500 climbs 17% for the year, yet foreign markets outpace the U.S., with South Korea up 71% and Japan up 26%, highlighting relative underperformance [4].

2025 – The U.S. trade gap with China narrows 32% to $202 billion, while the deficit with the European Union widens to $219 billion, shifting the primary source of the shortfall to Europe [5].

2025 – Import volumes from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico surge as firms re‑route supply chains away from China, reshaping global trade geography [5].

December 2025 – At a cabinet meeting, President Trump blames President Biden for an “affordability crisis,” claiming he inherited the worst inflation ever even though CPI had already fallen to 3% [3].

Early January 2026 – A pending Supreme Court case threatens to invalidate many of Trump’s emergency‑law tariffs, with a decision expected in the coming weeks that could trigger refunds for businesses [2].

Early January 2026 – Tariff consultants warn that pass‑through to consumers may rise in 2026, with businesses’ share of the tariff bill potentially dropping from about 80% to roughly 20% as costs shift downstream [2].

Early January 2026 – The White House pauses or rolls back tariffs on produce, furniture, cabinets, and pasta in response to growing affordability concerns for households [2].

February 20, 2026 – The Supreme Court strikes down a large portion of the Trump administration’s tariff regime, declaring many emergency‑law levies illegal [1][6].

February 20, 2026 – President Trump announces he will replace the voided measures with new tariffs under a different legal authority, signaling a continued protectionist push [1].

February 21, 2026 – Trump accuses Democrats of costing the economy two percentage points of growth, citing the October‑November 2025 budget shutdown as a major drag [6].

February 21, 2026 – The Commerce Department estimates the shutdown cut Q4 2025 growth by roughly one percentage point, tempering Trump’s two‑point claim [6].

February 21, 2026 – Trump touts his tariffs as an “economic miracle,” citing a cherry‑picked 1.4% core‑inflation figure while data show core inflation at 2.6% for the latter half of 2025 and overall inflation near 3% [4].

First half 2026 (forecast) – Goldman Sachs projects tariffs will add another 0.3 percentage point to inflation, extending the price‑pressure effect into mid‑year [2].

2026 (ongoing) – Analysts expect the share of tariff costs borne by businesses to fall to about 20%, with consumers shouldering the majority of the burden as firms increase price pass‑through [2].