Abu Dhabi Talks Show Constructive Dialogue but No Breakthrough, Security Guarantees Ready, Donbas Still Stalls
Updated (9 articles)
Constructive Yet Inconclusive Abu Dhabi Sessions Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the meetings of Ukrainian, Russian and U.S. envoys in Abu Dhabi as “constructive,” while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called them constructive but incomplete, noting that a new trilateral round will start on Feb 1 [1][2][3]. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff echoed the positive tone and scheduled the follow‑up session for Feb 1, but no major agreement emerged, especially on territorial matters [2][3]. German foreign minister Johann Wadephul warned that Moscow’s rigidity on the “decisive territorial issue” could derail further progress [1].
U.S. Security Guarantees Document Completed Zelenskyy announced that a bilateral security‑guarantees paper for Ukraine is “100 % ready,” awaiting a signing date that will require ratification by the U.S. Congress and Ukraine’s parliament [3][2][5]. The document is tied to a broader 20‑point U.S. plan that Zelensky says is about 90 % finished, linking security guarantees to a potential demilitarised economic zone in Donbas [8][9]. Trump’s team is coordinating the formal signing location and timing with Kyiv [5][9].
Donbas Territorial Issue Remains Core Obstacle Russia insists Ukraine must withdraw from the annexed eastern territories, invoking the “Anchorage formula” from the Putin‑Trump summit, while Kyiv refuses any concession on Donbas, calling the region’s status a non‑negotiable sticking point [1][2][4][6][8]. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov and other officials stressed that lasting peace hinges on resolving this territorial question, and German foreign minister warned that Moscow’s “stubborn insistence” could lengthen negotiations [1][7]. Both sides acknowledge the dispute accounts for roughly the final 10 % of the talks [4][8].
Intense Military Activity Persists During Negotiations Russia’s defense ministry reported downing 40 Ukrainian drones, including 34 over Krasnodar, while Ukrainian forces shot down or suppressed 110 of 138 drones, with 21 striking targets across 11 locations [1]. The same period saw Russia launch its largest overnight air attack, killing a civilian in Kyiv, wounding four, and cutting heat to nearly 6,000 apartments, prompting Ukrainian retaliation against a Krasnodar oil refinery [2][6]. Russia also conducted a five‑hour Baltic Sea bomber patrol, signaling a show of force amid the diplomatic push [7].
Trump’s Deadline Pressure and Sanctions Threats President Donald Trump set explicit deadlines for a peace agreement and warned of additional sanctions if Moscow does not move, while his envoys continued shuttle diplomacy with both sides [1][4][9]. Trump’s public pressure contrasted with the Kremlin’s cautious stance, as Peskov declined to endorse the optimism expressed by Witkoff [9]. The U.S. administration’s hardline timeline aims to accelerate a settlement before the February follow‑up round [2][3].
Sources
-
1.
AP: Kremlin Reports Constructive Progress in Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Amid Ongoing Conflict: Details Peskov’s constructive assessment, Zelensky’s view, Trump’s deadlines, German foreign minister’s warning, and ongoing drone warfare .
-
2.
CNN: Ukraine‑Russia‑US Trilateral Talks Advance Amid Ongoing Fighting: Highlights first joint meeting, Zelensky’s constructive remarks, Witkoff’s optimism, ready security‑guarantees document, 20‑point plan debate, and coinciding Russian air attack .
-
3.
AP: U.S. Security Guarantees for Ukraine Declared Ready, Zelenskyy Says: Announces 100 % ready security guarantees, describes trilateral format, notes Ukraine’s EU‑membership push, and outlines next round on Feb 1 .
-
4.
BBC: Ukraine‑Russia‑US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi: Limited Progress Amid High Stakes: Reports inaugural trilateral talks, Trump’s pressure, Zelensky’s Davos comments, Donbas deadlock, and Kyiv mayor’s warning of worsening attacks .
-
5.
Newsweek: Zelensky says it's too early to judge Abu Dhabi trilateral talks: Emphasizes early‑stage assessment, finalized security guarantees awaiting Trump’s sign‑off, closed‑format talks, Donbas obstacle, energy crisis, and purchase of IRIS‑T air‑defence systems .
-
6.
AP: Kremlin says territorial issue key obstacle to Ukraine peace as Abu Dhabi talks proceed: Focuses on Donbas priority, Putin’s discussion with Trump envoys, near‑ready peace proposals, and inclusion of trade ideas from Davos .
-
7.
CNN: US, Ukraine and Russia hold first trilateral talks on security issues in Abu Dhabi: Describes first security‑focused trilateral session, Russian participation, delegation leaders, substantive pre‑talk meeting, territorial focus, and Baltic bomber patrol .
-
8.
BBC: Russia, Ukraine and US to hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi: Announces upcoming talks, Kremlin’s “useful” but conditional stance, Zelensky’s step‑forward comment, delegation composition, Anchorage formula reference, and 20‑point U.S. plan .
-
9.
BBC: Zelensky says trilateral talks with US and Russia set for UAE after Davos meeting: Reports Zelensky’s UAE plan post‑Davos, Witkoff’s optimism, U.S. Donbas‑security‑guarantee framework, Trump‑aligned security guarantee deal, Peskov’s cautious continuation, and criticism of European political will .
Timeline
2014 – Russia annexes Crimea, establishing a territorial precedent that later becomes a core obstacle in peace talks, with Kyiv demanding full restoration of its borders and the West insisting the annexation be reversed [7].
Feb 2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, sparking a multi‑year war that leads to the first three‑way diplomatic meeting between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington only four years later [7].
Jan 2026 (Davos Forum) – Zelensky meets President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum, calls the encounter “really positive,” and secures a verbal U.S. security‑guarantee pledge that he says will be formalized later [3].
Jan 22, 2026 – Zelensky announces that trilateral negotiations will be held in the United Arab Emirates, stressing that the future status of the Donbas is the “major unresolved issue” and urging Russia to be ready to compromise [3].
Jan 22, 2026 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Moscow, meet President Vladimir Putin for more than three hours, and express optimism that the remaining “one issue” – territory – can be resolved [3][5].
Jan 22, 2026 – The U.S. peace plan ties a demilitarised, free‑economic zone in Donbas to a comprehensive security‑guarantee package for Kyiv, with working groups slated to address both military and economic dimensions [3].
Jan 23, 2026 – The first trilateral security talks open in Abu Dhabi in a closed format, bringing together Admiral Igor Kostyukov (Russia), Rustem Umerov (Ukraine) and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, marking the inaugural three‑way session since the 2022 invasion [5].
Jan 23, 2026 – Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov describes the Abu Dhabi talks as “substantive, constructive and very frank,” but reiterates that any durable peace hinges on resolving the territorial question, especially the Donbas [2][5].
Jan 23, 2026 – President Donald Trump publicly pressures both sides, calling a peace deal “stupid” not to reach, and dispatches envoys for intensive shuttle diplomacy ahead of the Abu Dhabi meeting [1].
Jan 23, 2026 – Zelensky tells the Ukrainian public that the security‑guarantees document is “100 % ready” and that a signing date will be coordinated with President Trump, pending ratification by the U.S. Congress and Ukraine’s parliament [6].
Jan 23, 2026 – Russia conducts a five‑hour long‑range bomber patrol over the Baltic Sea minutes after the Putin‑Witkoff meeting, signaling a show of force while diplomacy proceeds [5].
Jan 23, 2026 – Delegates reference the “Anchorage formula” from the Alaska summit, indicating that Russia’s pre‑condition for any settlement includes Ukrainian withdrawal from about 25 % of the Donetsk region it still controls [2].
Jan 25, 2026 – Zelensky, speaking in Vilnius, repeats that the U.S. security‑guarantees text is “100 % ready,” links EU accession by 2027 to Ukraine’s “economic security guarantee,” and notes that the next trilateral round will reconvene on Feb 1 in Abu Dhabi [8].
Jan 26, 2026 – Delegates hold the first joint Ukraine‑Russia‑US meeting; Zelensky posts on X that “a lot was discussed” and that talks focus on “possible parameters for ending the war,” while Witkoff calls the session “very constructive” and announces a follow‑up round beginning Feb 1 [4].
Jan 26, 2026 – Russia launches its largest overnight air strike on Kyiv during the talks, killing a civilian, wounding four and cutting heat to nearly 6,000 apartments; Ukraine retaliates by striking Russian targets, including a Krasnodar oil refinery [4].
Jan 26, 2026 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says the Abu Dhabi meetings are constructive but produce no breakthrough, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warns that Moscow’s “stubborn insistence on the decisive territorial issue” could stall the process [7].
Feb 1, 2026 (planned) – The next round of trilateral negotiations is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, aiming to continue work on military, economic and cease‑fire issues and to finalize the security‑guarantees signing [4][8].
External resources (3 links)
- https://www.facebook.com/zelenskyy.official/posts/pfbid0FriaxEahcM5N1PgCiYZz7NPMi1ep8sjsWkszi5ss5eetja5m4D77jkJjaoNDBNp9l?rdid=lelntBdiHFC6EtBB# (cited 1 times)
- https://x.com/SEPeaceMissions/status/2015152029622997116 (cited 1 times)
- https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2015062372386250962 (cited 1 times)