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Kremlin Amplifies False Victory Claims as ISW Documents Limited Gains and Ukrainian Counter‑Operations

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Kremlin’s Victory Narrative Contradicted by Independent Data Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy announced that Russian forces seized roughly 900 km² and captured 42 settlements in 2026, yet ISW could verify only 19 settlements and 572 km² since the year began, leaving a discrepancy of 23 settlements and 328 km² [1]. ISW also recorded modest Russian advances of just 99 km² in eastern Zaporizhia during 2026, underscoring the limited offensive momentum [1]. The gap between official statements and on‑the‑ground assessments highlights a systematic inflation of battlefield successes by Kremlin officials [1].

Ukrainian Countermeasures Disrupt Russian Plots and Advance Frontlines Ukrainian and Moldovan security services detained ten suspects involved in a plot offering up to $100,000 to assassinate Ukrainian journalists, officials, a strategic‑industry head, and foreign‑legion personnel, aiming to provoke outrage [1]. The same ISW report notes Ukrainian forces recently pushed west of Zaliznychne near Hulyaipole and advanced in Novopavlivka, indicating active counter‑offensives despite Russian claims [1]. These developments demonstrate coordinated Ukrainian resistance on both intelligence and battlefield fronts [1].

Domestic Repression Targets Critics and Former Separatists Russian authorities opened an administrative case against former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” seeking a fine of 30,000‑50,000 rubles; the case was filed by Major General Apti Alaudinov after Gubarev criticized Alaudinov’s performance in Kursk and denounced DNR head Denis Pushilin for profiteering [1]. This action reflects a broader Kremlin effort to silence dissent within occupied territories and among former allies [1]. The legal pressure complements other reported crackdowns on critics of the war effort [1].

United Russia Mobilizes Media Ahead of 2026 Duma Election The Presidential Administration instructed media outlets to publish stories emphasizing United Russia’s social programs and military support as the party’s polling slipped about 10 percentage points nationally and up to 15 points in St Petersburg [1]. The campaign seeks to offset public discontent over rising food and utility prices that threaten the party’s popularity [1]. State‑directed messaging aims to reshape voter perception before the upcoming Duma elections [1].

Leaked Telegram Reveals Senior Officers Sanctioning POW Torture Radio Svoboda’s Skhemi project released Telegram messages from Major General Roman Demurchiev discussing routine torture and killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war, accompanied by December 2024 infrared drone footage of executions near Makiivka [1]. The disclosures align with ISW’s long‑standing assessment that Russian command structures condone war crimes [1]. The evidence underscores systemic violations of international humanitarian law within Russian military operations [1].

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Timeline

Feb 24, 2022 – Putin orders a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine and, within hours, summons Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs to the Kremlin, underscoring the regime’s reliance on the ultra‑rich to fund the war effort[1].

2023 – Oleg Tinkov faces Kremlin pressure after criticizing the war; the state threatens to nationalise Tinkoff Bank, forces a sale to a Potanin‑linked buyer at a deep discount, and Tinkov loses roughly $9 billion and exits Russia[1].

2024 – Forbes records 140 Russian billionaires with a combined $580 billion in wealth, a near‑pre‑invasion peak, and 11 new billionaires appear as foreign firms exit, reshaping the oligarchic landscape[1].

Dec 2024 – Leaked Telegram messages from Major General Roman Demurchiev detail routine torture and killing of Ukrainian POWs, accompanied by infrared drone footage of executions near Makiivka, confirming ISW’s assessment of sanctioned war crimes[2].

2025 – Western sanctions close any viable path for oligarch defections, tethering their assets to the Kremlin and channeling wealth into the war economy[1].

2025 – Ukrainian former parliament chair Andriy Parubiy is assassinated, a killing later cited by Russian prosecutors as a precedent for a foiled 2026 plot to target Ukrainian officials[2].

Early 2026 – Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy claims Russian forces have seized about 900 km² and 42 settlements this year, but the Institute for the Study of War verifies only 19 settlements and 572 km², exposing a stark gap in the Kremlin’s victory narrative[2].

Feb 21, 2026 – Russian authorities open an administrative case against ex‑separatist leader Pavel Gubarev for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” seeking a fine of 30,000‑50,000 rubles; Gubarev says the case is filed by Major General Apti Alaudinov after he criticised Alaudinov’s performance in Kursk and denounced DNR head Denis Pushilin for profiteering[2].

Early 2026 – United Russia intensifies a media push ahead of the September 2026 Duma elections, directing outlets to spotlight the party’s social programs and military support as polls slip 10‑15 percentage points nationally and in St Petersburg[2].

Early 2026 – Ukrainian and Moldovan security services detain ten suspects in a scheme offering up to $100,000 to assassinate Ukrainian journalists, officials, a strategic‑industry head and foreign‑legion personnel, a plot designed to provoke outrage after the 2025 killing of Parubiy[2].

Early 2026 – ISW assesses Russian forces have captured only a few new settlements and 99 km² in eastern Zaporizhia, while Ukrainian troops advance west of Zaliznychne near Hulyaipole and push forward in Novopavlivka, indicating marginal Russian offensive momentum despite Kremlin claims[2].

Sep 2026 (planned) – Russia holds its parliamentary (Duma) elections, with United Russia seeking to shore up support through the intensified media campaign and social‑program messaging[2].

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