2020 – The COVID‑19 pandemic triggers the deepest U.S. recession since 2008, establishing a baseline that makes the 2025 slowdown appear starkly slower than the post‑pandemic rebound, as analysts note the Q4 2025 growth is the weakest since that year [3].

Oct 2022 – The personal saving rate falls to a low of 3.6%, the lowest level recorded since October 2022, highlighting households’ limited buffers before the 2025‑26 slowdown [3].

Mar 2024 – Core PCE inflation climbs to a 3% annual rate, the highest since March 2024, foreshadowing the price pressures that later push the Fed to pause rate cuts [3].

Q3 2025 (July‑September) – GDP expands 4.3% annualized, the fastest in two years, driven by a 3.5% surge in consumer spending, a 7.4% rebound in exports, and defense outlays; economists describe a K‑shaped recovery where wealthy households and tech investment (≈14% of GDP) fuel growth while broader consumer confidence stays grim [2][5][11].

Dec 2025 (early) – An AP‑NORC poll finds only 31% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy and 66% label the national economy as “poor,” prompting Trump to launch a national tour aimed at boosting confidence ahead of the 2026 midterms [8].

Dec 12 2025 – A second AP‑NORC survey shows 68% of respondents view the economy as poor, 87% notice higher grocery prices, inflation runs at 3% above the Fed’s 2% target, and roughly half of households cut non‑essential spending or dip into savings [12].

Dec 22‑23 2025 – AAA reports national gas prices dip below $3 per gallon, while analysts credit tariffs for sustaining a 4.3% Q3 growth and note that tech‑related data‑center and chip investments account for about 14% of the quarter’s GDP gain; household debt delinquency hovers just over 4% and voter approval of Trump’s economic stewardship remains low [7].

Sep 2025 – The PCE price index rises to 2.8% annualized and core PCE eases to 2.8%, consumer spending growth slows to 0.3% (flat in real terms), and economists anticipate a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut at the next policy meeting, while the University of Michigan survey shows a modest rise in consumer sentiment [6].

Jan 22 2026 – The Commerce Department revises Q3 GDP upward to 4.4% annualized, the strongest since 2023, with consumer spending contributing 70% of growth, a surge in exports, and a drop in imports; policy uncertainty from Trump’s import taxes and a K‑shaped recovery persist, and the labor market adds only about 28 000 jobs per month with unemployment at 4.4% [10].

Feb 3 2026 – New York Fed data reveal higher‑income and college‑educated households increase inflation‑adjusted spending faster than other groups (2.3% vs. 0.9% since 2023), while lower‑income and rural families face higher inflation; the findings underscore a pandemic‑era shift that deepens inequality, with Dallas Fed research showing the top 20% now capture 60% of earnings and 57% of consumption [9].

Feb 20 2026 – Advance estimates show Q4 2025 GDP grows only 1.4% annualized, a sharp drop from the prior 4.4% quarter; a six‑week federal shutdown cuts government outlays by nearly 17%, shaving roughly one growth point, while consumer spending rises 2.4% but the personal saving rate falls to 3.6% (second‑lowest since 2008), AI‑related equipment drives modest business investment, job creation falls below 200 000 for the year and unemployment edges to 4.3%, and the PCE price index accelerates, prompting the Fed to likely hold rates steady [13][1][3].

2026 (pending) – A Supreme Court case looms that could overturn many of President Trump’s import tariffs, potentially refunding importers and reshaping trade‑related price dynamics that have been a drag on inflation and consumer costs [5].

2026 (midterms) – Trump’s national tour continues through 2026, aiming to improve economic perceptions before the midterm elections, as poll data show persistent pessimism among voters [8].