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Iran’s IRGC Begins Strait of Hormuz Drills Amid U.S. Diplomatic Talks

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Drills Launched on Feb 16 During U.S. Negotiations The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps started a new round of exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Feb 16, aligning with forthcoming U.S. diplomatic talks and a notable U.S. naval presence, indicating preparation for “potential security and military threats” [1].

Hormuz Handles 17‑20 Million Barrels Daily, Crucial to Global Oil The narrow waterway moves roughly 17–20 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids each day, accounting for close to one‑fifth of worldwide petroleum consumption [1].

Asian Markets Depend on Majority of Hormuz‑Transit Crude In 2022, about 82 % of the crude and condensate passing through the strait was destined for Asian markets, with China, India, Japan and South Korea together receiving roughly two‑thirds of those flows [1].

Past Closure Threats Remain Unexecuted, Risking Iran’s Own Exports Tehran has repeatedly threatened to shut the strait during heightened tensions, but never carried out a full closure because it would damage its own oil exports and likely trigger a broader international military response [1].

Alternative Pipelines Insufficient to Replace Hormuz Flow Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah provide limited overland routes, yet their throughput cannot match the daily volumes that rely on the strait, leaving global oil trade vulnerable [1].

Even Minor Disruptions Prompt Price Spikes and Inflation Small disturbances raise shipping insurance and freight rates, causing immediate oil‑price hikes; for India, where over 40 % of crude imports come via Hormuz, this translates into higher domestic fuel costs and broader inflationary pressure [1].

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Timeline

2022 – 82 % of the crude and condensate that transits the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, with China, India, Japan and South Korea together accounting for roughly two‑thirds of the flow, so any disruption threatens regional fuel supplies and global oil stability [2].

2024 – China purchases about 97 % of Iran’s oil exports, cementing its role as Tehran’s biggest customer and linking Asian demand tightly to Iranian production despite U.S. sanctions [1].

Prior to 2026 – Tehran repeatedly threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz during heightened tensions but never carries out a full closure, recognizing that such a move would cripple its own oil exports and likely provoke a broader international military response [2].

Jan 15, 2026 – The United States weighs a military strike on Iran as nationwide protests flare; President Trump says the administration “will watch developments before acting” and keeps options under consideration, while oil markets climb on fears of supply disruption and analysts note that any U.S. investment in Iran would remain limited without security guarantees [1].

Feb 16, 2026 – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches a fresh round of drills in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with a significant U.S. naval presence and scheduled diplomatic talks, signaling Tehran’s preparation for “potential security and military threats” and underscoring the chokepoint’s role in moving 17‑20 million barrels of oil daily—about 20 % of world consumption [2].

Late Feb 2026 (upcoming) – U.S. officials prepare for diplomatic talks with Iran following the IRGC drills, aiming to de‑escalate tensions and address security concerns in the Hormuz corridor, though no concrete agreement is yet set [2].

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