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Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year with Drone‑Driven Stalemate and Massive Casualties

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    Image: AP
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  • A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    Image: Newsweek
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months. Source Full size
  • None
    None
    Image: AP
    Source Full size
  • A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    Image: Newsweek
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months. Source Full size
  • None
    None
    Image: AP
    Source Full size

Drone Arsenal Supplies Majority of Ukrainian Strikes Zelensky told reporters on 24 Feb 2026 that unmanned aerial systems now execute about 80 percent of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian positions, most built domestically to keep front‑line units equipped, while the national defence industry surpassed $55 billion in output to sustain this production surge [1].

Front Lines Remain Attritional With Minimal Territorial Change Since the early‑2022 Russian advance, both sides have settled into grinding combat; Russia controls just under 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, having added only 1.55 percent of land from the end of 2022 to early Feb 2026, while Ukraine reclaimed roughly 56,900 sq km during its 2022 counter‑offensive [1][2].

Human and Military Casualties Surpass Two Million CSIS estimates Russian casualties exceed 1.2 million, including about 325,000 deaths, a loss triple the combined U.S. war toll since 1945, while Ukrainian losses range from 500,000‑600,000 personnel with up to 140,000 fatalities; together the conflict has killed, wounded or missing roughly two million soldiers [2][3][4].

Peace Negotiations Stalled Amid Maximalist Demands U.S.‑brokered talks in the UAE have produced only vague assurances; former President Trump’s promise of a 24‑hour end to the war faded, and Putin’s insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, abandonment of NATO aspirations, and Russian‑language status clashes with Zelenskyy’s demand for a cease‑fire along current lines, with a U.S.‑set June deadline looming [1][3].

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Timeline

Feb 24, 2022 – The Kremlin launches its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, announcing a ten‑day timetable to seize the country, a plan later shown to be disastrously optimistic. [2]

2023 – Sweden and Finland join NATO, doubling the alliance’s border with Russia and pushing Moscow to deepen its reliance on China. [2]

2024 – Activist Murat Mukashev receives a 10‑year sentence for a drug‑dealing case, initially refuses a defence‑ministry contract, and later enlists in the Russian army. [1]

Feb 2025 – President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold direct talks on ending the war; Russian obituary counts rise sharply in February following the meeting. [1]

June 11, 2025 – Murat Mukashev dies fighting in the Kharkiv region; friends say Trump’s promises to end the war influence his decision to sign up. [1]

Aug 2025 – Trump and Putin meet in Alaska, triggering a second surge in Russian obituaries and prompting the Kremlin to expand pay‑out incentives for volunteers. [1]

Oct–Nov 2025 – The United States unveils a 28‑point peace proposal; Russian obituaries average about 322 per day, roughly double 2024 levels. [1]

2025 (throughout) – Volunteers account for roughly one‑third of Russian battlefield deaths, up from 15 % in 2024, as the Kremlin relies on local‑government pay‑outs and student recruitment rather than a mass mobilization. [1]

2025 – National Security Council deputy chief Dmitry Medvedev reports roughly 336,000 new Russian recruits sign contracts, many unaware that contracts auto‑renew until the war ends. [1]

2025 – NATO estimates total Russian dead and wounded at about 1.1 million, with roughly 250,000 fatalities; the BBC independently verifies nearly 160,000 battlefield deaths. [1]

2025 – The IMF ranks Russia as the world’s ninth‑largest economy, up from eleventh pre‑war, even as war‑driven labour shortages push cucumber prices to double since December. [2]

2025 – European military aid to Ukraine rises 67 % and civilian casualties climb to 2,514 deaths and 12,142 injuries, a 31 % increase over 2024. [5]

Dec 2025 – In a Politico interview, Trump claims, “Russia has the upper hand… They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger… At some point, size will win.” [3]

Early 2026 – James Ford, Britain’s deputy ambassador to the OSCE, warns that Russian military losses now exceed sustainable recruitment; NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte adds Moscow loses about 1,000 troops a day in December. [3]

Jan 28, 2026 – CSIS estimates 1.2 million Russian casualties (275,000‑325,000 deaths) and a mere 12 % increase in occupied Ukrainian territory since 2022. [3]

Feb 21, 2026 – CSIS places Russian dead and injured at nearly 1.2 million, with 325,000 killed, while Ukrainian losses reach 500‑600 k; Kyiv’s defence ministry reports 35,000 Russian troops killed in December alone. [2]

Feb 22, 2026 – The invasion reaches the 1,418‑day milestone, matching the WWII timeline; trench warfare has cost roughly two million lives on both sides, and the U.S. sets a June deadline for a Trump‑mediated peace settlement. [6]

Feb 23, 2026 – The Institute for the Study of War calculates Russia’s territorial gains at under 1 % of Ukraine; civilian deaths include 763 children, and 5.3 million Ukrainians seek refuge in Europe. [5]

Feb 24, 2026 – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy states drones deliver 80 % of Ukrainian strikes; Ukraine’s defence industry now exceeds $55 billion and plans a network of ten weapons‑export centres across Europe by year‑end. [4]

Future 2026 (by year‑end) – Ukraine aims to operate ten weapons‑export centres in Europe to fund its defence industry and sustain domestic drone production. [4]

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