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Kremlin Revives UN Administration Proposal as Zelensky Secures Long‑Term U.S. Guarantees Amid Stalled Frontlines

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Kremlin pushes UN governance while tightening passport rules Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin reiterated Moscow’s 2025 plan for a temporary UN external administration in Ukraine, claiming it would enable “democratic” elections and a peace treaty Russia could recognize [1]. He warned Kyiv would try to block “Ukrainian citizens” in Russia from voting, linking the proposal to ongoing forced passportisation of occupied residents [1]. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added that any post‑war Ukrainian government must be “friendly” to Russia, underscoring Moscow’s demand for political control after the conflict [1].

Zelensky seeks multi‑decade security guarantees before peace talks In meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials, President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for a 15‑year guarantee, preferably extended to 20 years, insisting such assurances must precede any settlement [1]. He framed the guarantees as essential to Ukraine’s long‑term sovereignty and deterrence against future aggression [1]. The request signals Kyiv’s effort to lock in Western support despite stalled negotiations [1].

Frontline sees limited Russian gains and Ukrainian tactical pushes General Gerasimov announced capture of 12 settlements covering about 200 sq km in early February, a figure ISW estimates at roughly 203 sq km, though the areas are minor villages rather than strategic strongholds [1]. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported counter‑attacks that pushed Russian lines back 9‑9.5 km in two sectors, retaking villages along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers [1]. Parallel reports note mixed activity: Ukraine advanced near Hulyaipole while Russia made modest gains in Sumy, Borova and Slovyansk [2].

Western diplomatic and financial moves intensify amid Russian uncertainty President Zelensky confirmed Ukraine will attend a U.S.–hosted trilateral summit on Feb 17‑18, hoping to discuss a “free economic zone” in Donbas, while Russia has not confirmed participation and may favor an Abu Dhabi venue [2]. NATO ambassador Matt Whitaker announced $4.5 billion pledged by 21 NATO members, Australia and New Zealand to the PURL weapons‑funding program, with further pledges expected at the Feb 12 NATO ministers’ meeting [2]. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are sharply cutting Russian oil purchases, likely ending deliveries by April, straining Russia’s war‑funding [3].

Russia tests high‑altitude communications platform as satellite alternative The Kremlin‑linked Foundation for Advanced Research Projects launched the unmanned Barrage‑1 aerostat, capable of carrying up to 100 kg of 5G NTN equipment at 20 km altitude, on its maiden flight [1]. Milbloggers noted the platform cannot replace low‑orbit satellite constellations like Starlink but may supplement communications in contested zones [1]. The test reflects Moscow’s effort to mitigate reliance on Western satellite services amid ongoing sanctions [1].

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Timeline

2021‑2022 – Russia’s war aims include halting NATO expansion, forcing Ukraine to repeal its language law and UOC‑MP statutes, and demanding a “non‑negotiable” security framework that limits Ukraine’s military, as repeatedly voiced by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in early‑2026 interviews[3].

2022 – Moscow cites the Istanbul draft, a framework that would keep Ukraine’s armed forces constrained and give Russia veto power over Kyiv’s security decisions, reinforcing its refusal to accept Western guarantees[4].

June 2024 – President Vladimir Putin reiterates demands that Ukraine abandon NATO aspirations and accept Russian security guarantees, a stance echoed in Lavrov’s February 2026 statements[4].

August 2025 – The Alaska summit in Anchorage produces a Kremlin‑claimed “Anchorage formula” that allegedly obliges Ukraine to cede all of Donbas and freeze frontlines, a premise Russian negotiators use to blame Kyiv for stalled peace talks[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – The United States and the European Union finalize a comprehensive security and economic guarantee package for Ukraine; President Volodymyr Zelensky announces the document is “100 percent ready” and awaits parliamentary ratification[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Kremlin officials spin the Alaska summit narrative, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kirill Dmitriev and spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accusing Zelensky of delaying peace by refusing territorial concessions[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Security Council Chair Dmitry Medvedev links renewal of the New START treaty to U.S. concessions on Ukraine, warning that failure could prompt other states to pursue nuclear weapons[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Russian engineers deploy Starlink‑linked BM‑35 drones, striking Dnipro 86 km from the front and demonstrating a 500 km operational reach that heightens Ukraine’s demand for point‑defence systems[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Russia raises VAT to 22 % and sees inflation in essential goods climb, with occupied Crimea experiencing a 106.9 % price surge, underscoring the war’s economic strain on civilians[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Russian forces make modest territorial gains in northern Sumy and Kharkiv while Ukraine hits a Russian oil refinery with drones, illustrating a fluid front line[5].

Jan 27‑28, 2026 – Belarus‑origin balloons breach Lithuanian and Polish airspace, with 42 balloons entering Lithuania and similar incursions over Poland, a move Moscow frames as part of its “Phase Zero” information‑war strategy[4].

Jan 29 – Feb 3, 2026 – Former President Donald Trump claims he secures a week‑long pause on Russian energy strikes on Kyiv, a moratorium that Ukrainian officials say briefly eases civilian suffering[4].

Feb 1, 2026 – U.S. Senator Marco Rubio announces that U.S.–Ukrainian security guarantees are finalized, including a consensus on a small EU troop contingent backed by the United States, and notes a U.S. representative may attend the Abu Dhabi talks the same day[4].

Feb 2, 2026 – Russia’s Ministry of Defence launches a university recruitment drive for the Unmanned Systems Forces, offering one‑year contracts with salaries of 5.2‑5.5 million rubles to attract technical students[4].

Feb 2, 2026 – The Russian Foundation for Advanced Research Projects conducts the maiden flight of the Barrage‑1 stratospheric aerostat, a 20‑km‑high platform capable of carrying 100 kg of 5G NTN equipment, marking a test of a potential Starlink alternative[1].

Feb 8‑9, 2026 – U.S. forces board and seize the Russian‑linked tanker Aquila II in the Indo‑Pacific after it violates a U.S. quarantine, highlighting ongoing maritime enforcement against sanctioned vessels[3].

Feb 8‑9, 2026 – Belarusian balloons enter Polish airspace overnight, adding to a series of incursions detected since Jan 27 and reinforcing Russia’s low‑level aerial pressure campaign[3].

Feb 9, 2026 – In a TV BRICS interview, Lavrov blames the United States for breaking “peace proposals” from the August 2025 Alaska summit by imposing sanctions and secondary tariffs, while reiterating Russian demands for control over Ukraine’s post‑war government, military size, and demilitarisation[3].

Feb 9, 2026 – State Duma deputy Svetlana Zhurova states that a peace draft could be ready by March 2025 only if the West accepts every Russian demand made in 2021‑2022, underscoring Moscow’s all‑or‑nothing stance[3].

Feb 9, 2026 – Russian milbloggers claim a Ukrainian “counter‑offensive” near the Dnipropetrovsk‑Zaporizhia border, but Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn counters that Ukrainian troops are only conducting reconnaissance and the front remains 10‑15 km from Ternuvate[3].

Feb 9, 2026 – Indian refiners, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Reliance, sharply cut Russian crude purchases and are set to cease deliveries by April, threatening a key source of revenue for Russia’s war effort[3].

Feb 11, 2026 – Lavrov appears on a youth‑focused podcast, demanding NATO halt expansion, urging Ukraine to repeal its language‑law and UOC‑MP statutes, and declaring “security is non‑negotiable,” signaling no willingness to compromise[2].

Feb 12, 2026 – U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker reports that 21 NATO members plus Australia and New Zealand have pledged $4.5 billion to the PURL weapons‑funding program since summer 2025, with additional pledges expected at the NATO ministers’ meeting the same day[2].

Feb 12, 2026 – Frontline activity shows mixed results: Ukrainian forces clear villages northwest of Hulyaipole and strike the Volgograd oil refinery, while Russian units advance modestly in Sumy, Borova and Slovyansk, leaving many sectors unchanged[2].

Feb 12, 2026 – Russian milbloggers criticize recent Telegram throttling, accusing officials of downplaying the platform’s role in frontline command, while spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov claim troops barely use Telegram[2].

Feb 16, 2026 – Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin reiterates the Kremlin’s 2025 proposal for a temporary UN external administration in Ukraine, labels President Zelensky “illegitimate,” and warns Kyiv will try to block Russian‑passport‑holding residents from voting, reinforcing Russia’s passportisation policy[1].

Feb 16, 2026 – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declares that any post‑war Ukrainian government must be “friendly” to Russia, underscoring Moscow’s demand for political control after the conflict[1].

Feb 16, 2026 – President Zelensky meets U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials, pressing for a 15‑year (preferably 20‑year) security guarantee that must precede any peace settlement, highlighting Kyiv’s reliance on long‑term Western protection[1].

Feb 16, 2026 – General Valery Gerasimov inflates Russian gains, announcing capture of 12 settlements covering about 200 sq km in early February, though analysts note these are minor villages rather than strategic strongholds[1].

Feb 16, 2026 – Ukrainian tactical counter‑attacks push Russian lines back 9‑9.5 km in two sectors along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers, slowing Russian momentum and recapturing villages in Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions[1].

Feb 17‑18, 2026 (planned) – Ukraine prepares to attend a U.S.–hosted trilateral summit, hoping to discuss a “free economic zone” in Donbas, while Russia’s participation remains uncertain, indicating a potential diplomatic opening amid ongoing hostilities[2].

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