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Geneva Talks End as Russia Prepares Rolling Reserve Call‑Ups Amid Rising Casualties

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  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025. Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025. Source Full size

Geneva summit concludes with delegation swap and stalled negotiations On Feb 18 2026, U.S., Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Geneva for a two‑hour session that ended without a breakthrough; Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky replaced GRU Admiral Igor Kostyukov as head of the Russian team, a move Kyiv warned could buy Moscow time for its war effort [1]. President Volodymyr Zelensky offered a limited ceasefire, elections and a reciprocal troop pull‑back in Donbas, but insisted Russia must match any Ukrainian concession and agree to a bilateral meeting with President Putin [1]. The United States urged both sides to avoid long‑range strikes, but Russia reiterated its pre‑war demand for a NATO “non‑expansion” clause in any future treaty [1].

Zelensky pushes a compromise tied to long‑term security guarantees Ahead of the Geneva talks, Zelensky publicly stated Ukraine would hold elections and accept a two‑month ceasefire if a durable security pact were secured, requesting a 15‑year guarantee that could be extended to 20 years before any peace settlement [3][4]. He emphasized that without such guarantees Kyiv would be forced to cede territory without protection against future Russian aggression [4]. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the demand for a long‑term guarantee while proposing a limited Ukrainian withdrawal to create a “free economic zone” in Donbas [2].

Russia readies limited rolling reserve mobilizations and tightens information control The State Duma passed the first reading of a bill criminalising “evading duty to defend the Fatherland,” paving the way for involuntary reserve call‑ups; Kremlin officials also throttled Telegram traffic and introduced new legal measures to normalise forced mobilisations [1]. Western officials reported that Russian battlefield casualties in Jan 2026 exceeded recruitment capacity by roughly 9,000 personnel, threatening the Kremlin’s ability to sustain offensive operations [1]. Concurrently, the Kremlin announced testing of the “Barrage‑1” stratospheric platform as a potential supplement to Starlink communications, though analysts note it cannot replace low‑orbit satellite coverage [3].

Frontline sees mixed advances as Ukraine regains ground while Russian gains remain marginal Ukrainian tactical counter‑attacks in early February pushed Russian lines back 9–9.5 km in the Yanchur and Haichur river sectors, recapturing villages and slowing Moscow’s momentum [3]. Russian General Gerasimov claimed capture of 12 settlements covering about 200 sq km, but independent estimates confirm these were minor villages rather than strategic strongholds [3]. The high casualty rate—estimated at 170 Ukrainian‑equivalent casualties per kilometre gained for Russia—combined with the loss of Starlink terminals on Feb 1, which could take six months to replace, is expected to curb Russia’s drone‑strike tempo [4].

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Timeline

2022 – The “Istanbul framework” drafted in 2022 limits Ukraine’s military capabilities while granting Russia a veto over Kyiv’s security decisions, a point Sergei Lavrov repeatedly cites to reject Western guarantees[7].

June 2024 – President Vladimir Putin’s public demands call for a “demilitarised” Ukraine and a halt to NATO expansion, positions that Lavrov reiterates in every 2026 interview, underscoring Moscow’s unchanged war aims[7].

Aug 2025 – The Alaska summit in Anchorage produces what Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dubs the “Anchorage formula,” a supposed U.S.–Russia understanding that would require Ukraine to cede all of Donbas and freeze the frontlines[9].

Dec 16, 2025 – President Volodymyr Zelensky tells reporters that draft peace proposals being negotiated with U.S. officials “could be finalized within days,” and that the Berlin plan is “very workable” though it leaves the status of occupied territories unresolved[2].

Dec 2025 – NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte reports roughly 35,000 Russian deaths in December, reflecting a casualty intensity that far exceeds Ukrainian territorial gains[5].

Jan 2026 – Russian death toll climbs to about 30,000 in January, with ISW estimating 76‑87 Russian casualties per square kilometre seized, while Zelensky warns that “without security guarantees Ukraine would have to surrender territory”[5].

Jan 27, 2026 – The United States and the European Union complete a “100 percent ready” security‑guarantee package for Ukraine, adding a “layer” of economic guarantees and a pathway to EU membership by 2027, pending parliamentary and congressional approval[9].

Jan 27‑28, 2026 – Belarus‑origin balloons breach Lithuanian and Polish airspace, prompting airport shutdowns and air‑space restrictions as part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” information‑war strategy[8].

Jan 30, 2026 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces that U.S.–Ukraine security guarantees are finalized, while Lavrov dismisses them as protecting an “illegitimate” government and former President Donald Trump claims he secured a week‑long pause to Russian energy strikes[8].

Feb 1, 2026 – A U.S. delegation prepares to attend Abu Dhabi talks, and Dmitry Peskov warns that the “Anchorage formula” will not yield results unless Ukraine accepts all Russian demands[8][9].

Feb 1, 2026 – Ukraine reports that Russia’s Rubikon drone‑strike network loses functionality after a Starlink blockade, estimating Moscow will need six months to replace the disabled terminals[5].

Feb 8‑9, 2026 – U.S. forces board and seize the Russian‑linked tanker Aquila II in the Indo‑Pacific, while Belarusian balloons again enter Polish airspace and Indian refiners announce they will stop taking Russian crude by April, tightening pressure on Moscow’s war‑funding[7].

Feb 9, 2026 – Lavrov blames the United States for “breaking peace proposals” from the August 2025 Alaska summit, reiterating that Russia seeks control over Ukraine’s post‑war government, a reduced military, and “demilitarisation” of the country[7].

Feb 11, 2026 – In a youth‑focused podcast, Lavrov again demands an end to NATO expansion and declares “security is non‑negotiable,” showing no willingness to compromise on core war aims[6].

Feb 12, 2026 – U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker reports that 21 NATO members, plus Australia and New Zealand, have pledged $4.5 billion to the PURL weapons‑funding program, with additional pledges expected at the NATO ministers’ meeting later that day[6].

Feb 13‑14, 2026 – Russia launches a massive barrage of 112 drones and an Iskander‑M missile, plus two Kh‑31 cruise missiles; Ukrainian air defenses shoot down 91 drones and intercept most missiles, though 18 drones strike 11 targets[5].

Feb 14, 2026 – Zelensky offers a compromise: a two‑month ceasefire, early elections, and a 15‑year (ideally 20‑year) security guarantee before any territorial concession, warning that without such guarantees “Ukraine would have to surrender territory”[5].

Feb 16, 2026 – The U.S.–brokered Geneva peace talks open with a Russian delegation led by chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky; Ukraine’s team, headed by Kyrylo Budanov, stresses protecting national interests, while the United States proposes a limited Ukrainian pull‑back and a 15‑year security guarantee[1].

Feb 16, 2026 – The Kremlin reiterates its 2025 proposal for a temporary UN external administration in Ukraine, with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin arguing it would enable “democratic” elections, while Russia conducts the maiden flight of the Barrage‑1 stratospheric communications platform[4].

Feb 17‑18, 2026 – Ukraine prepares to attend a U.S.–hosted trilateral summit on those dates, hoping to discuss a “free economic zone” in Donbas; Russia has not confirmed participation and may push for an Abu Dhabi venue instead[6].

Feb 18, 2026 – The Geneva talks conclude after a two‑hour session; Ukraine offers a troop withdrawal and elections if Russia reciprocates with an equivalent pull‑back, while Russia swaps its delegation leadership and reasserts a treaty clause that legally enshrines NATO non‑expansion[3].

Feb 19, 2026 – President Putin prepares limited rolling‑reserve call‑ups and tightens information control as Russian battlefield casualties outpace recruitment by about 9,000 in January, threatening the Kremlin’s ability to sustain offensive operations[3].

Future (post‑Feb 2026) – Russia plans to expand use of the Barrage‑1 aerostat to supplement communications, though analysts note it cannot replace Starlink; the U.S.–Ukrainian security‑guarantee document awaits signing by the Ukrainian parliament and U.S. Congress, and the EU pledges a pathway to membership by 2027[4][9].

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