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Russia Launches 425 Drone and Missile Strikes Ahead of Geneva Energy‑Moratorium Talks

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Massive Overnight Attack Targets Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure 425 drones and missiles struck Ukraine during the night of 17‑18 Feb 2026, hitting energy facilities in Kharkiv and Odesa and cutting power for at least 28,000 customers in Kharkiv and tens of thousands in Odesa; the sortie comprised 396 strike drones—including roughly 250 Shaheds—and 29 missiles such as four Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and 20 Kh‑101 cruise missiles, with Ukrainian defenses downing 367 drones and 25 missiles [1].

Strike Tempo Increases Prior to Geneva Negotiations The sortie follows a pattern of large‑scale strike packages of 400‑700 weapons that historically precede bilateral or trilateral talks, though it remains below the war’s record 823‑weapon barrage of September 2025, suggesting Moscow may be moderating attacks to avoid provoking U.S. President Donald Trump [1].

Geneva Trilateral Talks Commence Amid Threats of Further Strikes Delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia began talks on 17 Feb 2026, with discussions slated to consider a short‑term halt to energy strikes—a tactic Russia employed in early 2025 and again in Jan‑Feb 2026; President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that intelligence indicated another large strike was imminent [1].

Ukrainian Air Defences Intercept Most Weapons but Miss Ballistics Ukrainian forces shot down all cruise missiles on 16‑17 Feb 2026, largely using F‑16 and Mirage jets, yet failed to intercept any ballistic missiles, underscoring reliance on scarce Western air‑defence systems after Russia fired a record 96 ballistic missiles in January 2026 [1].

Kremlin Officials Emphasize Non‑Compromise Stance and Geopolitical Rhetoric Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov declared Ukraine could “win” only by joining Russia, Deputy Chair Yuri Shvytkin praised a “favorable backdrop” for settlements, and presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev threatened the West over shadow‑fleet seizures and warned Finland of preparing offensive corvettes, reflecting an escalatory narrative aimed at pressuring the United States and its allies [1].

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Timeline

Oct 2023 – Russia begins a systematic campaign of major strikes on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure; DTEK later counts nine major attacks on its plants since this month, highlighting a pattern of targeting power generation facilities[1][8].

Dec 5, 2025 – Russia launches 653 drones and 51 missiles overnight, hitting the Fastiv railway hub, causing blackouts in eight regions and a temporary loss of external power at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemns the strikes as “unacceptable attacks on civilians”[2].

Dec 6, 2025 – Russia conducts a massive overnight assault with over 650 drones and 50 missiles; Ukraine downs about 585 drones and 30 missiles but still sees power and water outages for thousands in Odesa, while Zaporizhzhia briefly loses off‑site power; President Zelensky discusses peace talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and plans a meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London[6].

Dec 23, 2025 – Russia fires 635 drones and 38 missiles in the ninth large‑scale energy strike of the year, killing three civilians including a 4‑year‑old and cutting power in 13 regions; DTEK labels it the seventh major strike since October, noting over 220 attacks on its facilities since the invasion began[8].

Jan 5, 2026 – A Russian Shahed drone hits a Kyiv hospital, killing at least one and injuring others; Zelensky reports that 165 drones were launched overnight, including 100 Iranian‑made Shaheds, underscoring the scale of the aerial campaign[5].

Jan 9, 2026 – Russia launches more than 30 missiles and 339 drones overnight, cutting electricity to over 300,000 Kyiv homes and depriving more than a million people of water, while also striking facilities in several other regions[3].

Jan 18, 2026 – Ukrainian drone strikes damage energy networks in Russian‑occupied southern Ukraine, leaving over 200,000 households without power; overnight Russian attacks kill at least two people; a Ukrainian delegation arrives in the United States to push a U.S.–led peace process, with officials hinting that post‑war security documents could be signed at Davos the following week[7].

Jan 24, 2026 – Energy worker Oleksandr Adamov monitors a power plant from a sandbag‑lined steel capsule as missiles approach; Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy reports 612 attacks on energy infrastructure in 2025, including hits on 11 hydro plants, 45 heat/power plants and 151 substations; more than 15,000 workers repair damage around the clock[3].

Feb 2‑3, 2026 – Russia resumes large‑scale missile‑drone attacks after a brief moratorium, launching 450 drones and 71 missiles with a high share of ballistic missiles (32 Iskander‑M/S‑300); strikes hit Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia and Odesa, causing heat outages for 1,170 high‑rise buildings in Kyiv and leaving over 200,000 consumers without power in Kharkiv; President Zelensky says the strike is “1.5 times larger than previous ones,” and DTEK calls it the most devastating of 2026[13].

Feb 3, 2026 – Russia launches a record missile barrage, firing over 70 ballistic and cruise missiles and 450 drones at energy facilities across Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as temperatures plunge to –20 °C; more than 1,000 tower blocks lose heating and a Kharkiv plant is damaged; NATO urges allies to “dig deep” in air‑defence stockpiles and Dutch PM Mark Rutte pledges “hard power” support[1].

Feb 3, 2026 – After a brief cease‑fire prompted by a request from former US President Donald Trump, Russia ends the pause and unleashes another 450 drones and 70 missiles, injuring civilians in five regions; Poland scrambles jets to protect its airspace; NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte meets President Zelensky in Kyiv and pledges unwavering alliance support as three‑way Abu Dhabi negotiations begin, with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner slated to attend[4].

Feb 4‑5, 2026 – The energy‑strike moratorium originally set after the Jan 23‑24 trilateral talks is postponed; Russia uses the pause to stockpile weapons, preparing for the massive Feb 6‑7 raid[13][12].

Feb 6‑7, 2026 – Russia fires 408 drones and 39 missiles, targeting 750 kV and 330 kV substations and cutting power for about 600,000 customers; Ukrainian defenses down 382 drones and 24 missiles, but 13 missiles and 21 drones strike 19 locations; the strike features modified Shahed drones equipped with mines and cluster munitions[12].

Feb 7, 2026 – The United States pushes Kyiv to hold a national peace‑referendum by May 2026 and to meet in the United States around Feb 12; Zelensky confirms Ukraine’s agreement to a US‑sponsored meeting in Miami, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denies any such plan; GRU deputy chief Vladimir Alekseyev survives an assassination attempt and is out of danger[12].

Feb 12, 2026 (planned) – Ukraine is slated to hold a US‑sponsored peace meeting in Miami, aiming to set a framework for a May 2026 referendum and a possible March 2026 agreement[12].

Feb 17, 2026 – Trilateral Geneva talks commence with delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia, discussing a short‑term moratorium on energy strikes; President Zelensky warns that intelligence indicates another large strike is imminent[11].

Feb 18, 2026 – Russia launches 425 drones and missiles, hitting energy sites in Kharkiv and Odesa and cutting power for at least 28,000 customers in Kharkiv and tens of thousands in Odesa; Ukrainian forces down 367 drones and 25 missiles; the strike tempo spikes ahead of the Geneva talks, echoing previous 400‑700‑weapon packages that precede negotiations[11].

May 2026 (planned) – The United States seeks to hold a national referendum on a peace deal in Ukraine, targeting May 2026 to enable a March 2026 agreement and solidify a post‑war security framework[12].

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