2025 – The United States carries out air‑strike raids on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the first direct U.S. attacks on Tehran’s nuclear program and setting a precedent that President Trump later cites when warning of a “far worse” strike. [1]

June 2025 – Israel launches a 12‑day war against Iran; the United States follows with F‑35 strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, prompting Tehran to condemn a violation of sovereignty and heighten nuclear‑program tensions. [7]

Dec 5, 2025 – The IRGC conducts the two‑day “Shahid Mohammad Nazeri” naval drill across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman, warning U.S. warships to stay away; the exercise coincides with a GCC summit on disputed islands and follows the June U.S. F‑35 strikes. [5]

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Air Forces Central Command launches multi‑day drills to sharpen rapid deployment, operate from dispersed bases and generate combat sorties; President Trump posts “Time is running out,” threatens an armada and demands a “fair and equitable” nuclear deal, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warns of an “immediate and powerful” response and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group arrives in the region. [1]

Jan 31, 2026 – CENTCOM issues a warning that any unsafe IRGC behavior in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger escalation; Iran schedules a two‑day live‑fire naval exercise in the strait, with IRGC chief Amir Hatami affirming high defensive readiness and the United States emphasizing its professionalism and lethal deterrence. [4]

Jan 2026 (planned) – European Union officials convene to consider designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, a move backed by France, Italy and Israel and prompting Tehran to threaten reciprocal terrorist designations of EU militaries. [1]

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a Tehran crowd that any U.S. attack will spark a regional war and promises a heavy blow; Iran conducts a live‑fire drill in the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. carrier USS Abraham Lincoln operates nearby; the EU formally labels the IRGC a terrorist group, and President Trump remains non‑committal on a strike while urging nuclear negotiations. [7]

Feb 4, 2026 – A U.S. Navy fighter shoots down an Iranian drone that approaches the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of direct confrontation. [6]

Feb 18, 2026 – Leaked briefings reveal the United States prepares a massive week‑long, all‑out operation, ordering the USS Gerald R. Ford to join the Abraham Lincoln carrier and destroyers; commercial satellite images show Iran adding roofs and concealment structures at Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites; Iran conducts live‑fire drills and temporarily closes parts of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting about 20 % of global oil flow. [3][6]

Feb 18, 2026 – Media report that President Trump will decide over the weekend whether to order an Iran strike, while a second U.S. carrier is slated to arrive in the Mediterranean the following week. [8]

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran and Russia carry out joint naval drills in the Persian Gulf, simulating a hijacked‑ship rescue with missile‑launching warships; earlier in the week Iran briefly shuts the Strait of Hormuz; the United States positions the Gerald R. Ford and Abraham Lincoln carriers plus dozens of warships; Geneva talks stall despite “progress” claims, and Khamenei posts a Quranic verse urging resistance, while the U.S. seeks talks on Iran’s missile program and Iran’s atomic chief defends its enrichment rights. [2][8]