Dec 21, 2025 – Arsenal sit atop the Premier League at Christmas with a two‑point lead, marking the third time in four seasons they lead at the halfway point; historically, Christmas‑leading sides win the title in roughly half of campaigns and Arsenal have never turned a Christmas lead into a trophy [14].

Dec 31, 2025 – Arsenal rout Aston Villa 4‑1 to go five points clear of Manchester City; Arteta says “it’s a remarkable 2025, but a long road to 2026” and highlights the new Gabriel‑Saliba centre‑back pairing, while a calendar‑year‑leader’s title‑win rate sits at about 50 % [13].

Dec 31, 2025 – Pep Guardiola questions the idea of a two‑horse title race after Arsenal’s 4‑1 win pushes them five points ahead, warning that the situation could still change [12].

Dec 31, 2025 – BBC Sport previews the 2026 season, noting “Arsenal aim for the Premier League title” as part of a year of renewed title battles across Europe [11].

Jan 1, 2026 – Manchester City draw 0‑0 with Sunderland despite 14 shots, allowing Arsenal’s four‑point lead to widen and keep them in control of the title race [10].

Jan 14, 2026 – Arsenal beat Chelsea 3‑2 away in the Carabao Cup semi‑final first leg; Viktor Gyokeres ends his goal drought and assists Zubimendi, while Ben White admits the second half “was not up to our standards” [9].

Jan 17, 2026 – Pep Guardiola prepares for the Manchester derby against interim United boss Michael Carrick, with City on a 13‑game unbeaten run and still targeting a league double while remaining in the title hunt [8].

Jan 18, 2026 – Arsenal draw 0‑0 with Nottingham Forest, extending their lead to seven points; Arteta and the back line stress that the league’s stingiest defence underpins the title bid [7].

Jan 25, 2026 – Arsenal keep a four‑point Premier League lead after a goalless draw at Forest and a 3‑2 loss to United; Opta rates their title chances at 84.44 % and flags a favorable run‑in with home vs Chelsea on 1 Mar and an away clash with City on 18 Apr [6].

Jan 27, 2026 – Arsenal lose 3‑2 to United at the Emirates, their first home defeat; Arteta holds a squad meeting, telling players to “bring the temperature down” and outlines a four‑month plan to win the league, cups and Champions League [5].

Jan 30, 2026 – Arsenal sit four points clear as fans boo after the United loss and the frontline remains in a goal drought; historical patterns note Arsenal have led at this stage three times before but only won the title in 2003‑04 [4].

Feb 1, 2026 – Arsenal beat Leeds 4‑0 to maintain a six‑point lead; Manchester City squander a 2‑0 halftime lead vs Tottenham—the first such collapse since April 2018—and Villa lose at home, while City also fall 3‑1 to Bodo Glimt in the Champions League, widening Arsenal’s cushion [3].

Feb 3, 2026 – Arsenal defeat Chelsea 4‑2 on aggregate to reach their first major final in six years; Arteta calls the Emirates atmosphere “magical” and declares the squad “deserves it” after ending four consecutive semi‑final defeats [2].

Feb 4, 2026 – Kai Havertz scores a stoppage‑time winner to give Arsenal a 1‑0 win (4‑2 aggregate) and book a League Cup final spot; Arsenal sit six points clear in the league and top their Champions League group [17].

Feb 19, 2026 – Arsenal draw 2‑2 with Wolves after leading 2‑0, becoming the first table‑topping side to avoid defeat after trailing by two; former forward Alan Smith warns “bottle will dominate discussion” and the title now hinges on City’s remaining fixtures [1].

Mar 22, 2026 – Arsenal will face the winner of Manchester City or Newcastle in the League Cup final at Wembley, a chance to end a 33‑year trophy drought [2][17].

Apr 18, 2026 – Arsenal travel to Manchester City, their only remaining top‑six opponent before the season’s final stretch, a decisive fixture that could seal the title [6].