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Iranian Student Protests Surge Nationwide as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies

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  • Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday
    Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday
    Image: BBC
    Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday (X/Mamlekate, BBC Verify) Source Full size
  • Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday
    Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday
    Image: BBC
    Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday (X/Mamlekate) Source Full size
  • Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan
    Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan
    Image: BBC
    Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan (X/eisabazyar1) Source Full size

Fresh wave of campus demonstrations erupts on Feb 23 Students at eight Tehran universities and additional sites in Mashhad and Isfahan began large‑scale rallies on Saturday, marking the first major mobilization since the December‑January crackdown on nationwide protests [1]. The unrest followed the suspension of in‑person classes on 4 January for severe cold, with the reopening prompting immediate protests across the capital and other major cities [1]. Demonstrators chanted “woman, life, freedom,” burned the Islamic Republic flag, and displayed the pre‑1979 “lion and sun” flag while praising exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi [1].

Basij forces confront protesters while pro‑government rallies flare Verified footage shows Basij militia clashing with students at Sharif, Amirkabir and Tehran universities, using batons and tear‑gas to disperse crowds [1]. Simultaneously, government‑aligned counter‑rallies burned U.S. and Israeli flags, and state television acknowledged the presence of limited anti‑government gatherings, noting that some participants have been banned from campuses [1]. The dual confrontations underscore the polarized environment on Iranian campuses.

Death toll estimates remain sharply divided The U.S.–based Human Rights Activists News Agency reports at least 7,000 deaths since the January crackdown, with 11,000 more under verification, while former President Donald Trump cited roughly 32,000 fatalities [1]. Iranian officials confirm a lower figure of 3,117 deaths [1]. These conflicting numbers highlight the difficulty of obtaining reliable casualty data amid ongoing repression.

U.S. strike probability rises as protests persist A senior Trump adviser told Axios that there is a 90 percent chance of a U.S. military strike on Iran within weeks, citing stalled nuclear talks and the recent deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the region [2]. Anti‑regime protests continued on Feb 18 in five provinces, with security forces using tear‑gas and detaining demonstrators at Tehran’s Behest‑e Zahra cemetery; the Iranian Teachers Union launched a nationwide strike [2]. Human‑rights groups estimate at least 7,000 killed and over 50,000 detained since the protests began, reinforcing the volatile domestic backdrop to potential external action [2].

Sources

Timeline

Dec 28, 2025 – Anti‑government demonstrations erupt in Tehran’s bazaar over a plunging rial and soaring inflation, quickly spreading to dozens of cities and marking the largest unrest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising[21][29].

Jan 2, 2026 – Rights groups report at least 10 people killed and scores detained since the protests began, while 133 arrests are documented by Hengaw, illustrating rapid escalation[24].

Jan 3, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows Iran “won’t yield to the enemy” and declares “rioters must be put in their place,” while President Donald Trump posts he is “locked and loaded” and ready to intervene[24][25].

Jan 4, 2026 – In a televised address Khamenei repeats that “rioters must be put in their place” and blames foreign powers for the unrest; the death toll rises to at least 15 as protests spread to over 170 locations in 25 provinces[29].

Jan 5, 2026 – Protests reach 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces; at least 19 demonstrators and one security member are killed, and Trump warns Tehran it will be “hit very hard” if more protesters die[22].

Jan 6, 2026 – British intelligence reports Khamenei and about 20 aides have a contingency plan to flee to Moscow if the crackdown spirals, while the Supreme Leader authorises force, saying “rioters must be put in their place”[21].

Jan 8, 2026 – State TV attributes protest‑related fires to “terrorist agents” from the U.S. and Israel; rights groups tally at least 39 deaths and over 2,260 detentions amid a nationwide internet blackout[20].

Jan 9, 2026 – Khamenei brands President Trump a “criminal” and accuses the U.S. of backing the protesters, citing a death toll of at least 3,308 according to activists[8].

Jan 10, 2026 – Nationwide protests leave at least 65 dead; Khamenei calls Trump “blood‑stained” and vows retaliation against any U.S. attack, while Parliament Speaker warns U.S. bases would be legitimate targets[19].

Jan 11, 2026 – HRANA reports 78 protesters killed and 2,638 arrested as demonstrations spread to 185 cities; internet outage reaches 48 hours, prompting reliance on contraband Starlink terminals[18].

Jan 11, 2026 – Death toll climbs to 116 with 2,600 detained; state TV only acknowledges security‑force casualties, while Trump pledges U.S. support and hints at military options[17].

Jan 11, 2026 – Activists confirm 544 deaths (496 protesters, 48 security personnel) and over 10,600 detentions; Parliament Speaker warns Iran will strike U.S. assets if attacked, and Trump vows a “very strong” response[13][14].

Jan 12, 2026 – Protests sweep all 31 provinces, reaching more than 180 cities; HRANA cites over 500 dead and about 10,700 arrests, while the regime imposes a broad communications shutdown[12].

Jan 13, 2026 – HRANA raises the death toll to at least 2,571 (2,403 protesters, 147 government‑affiliated victims) and reports 18,100 detentions; state TV acknowledges “martyrs” for the first time[11].

Jan 14, 2026 – HRANA estimates 2,400 deaths, including 12 children, as protests continue; graffiti calling for Khamenei’s death appears in Tehran, and Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting on Truth Social[4].

Jan 15, 2026 – At a UN Security Council emergency, U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz says “all options are on the table” to stop the killings; activists cite at least 2,677 dead and call for accountability[10].

Jan 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledges “thousands” killed, describing the deaths as “inhuman” and blaming the United States, while President Trump threatens “very strong” action if the crackdown continues[3][9].

Jan 18, 2026 – Khamenei again brands Trump a criminal, claims the U.S. backs the protesters, and cites a death toll of at least 3,308; Trump calls for regime change and praises Iran’s reported cancellation of executions[8].

Jan 19, 2026 – In a national address Khamenei repeats that “thousands” have been killed, blames Trump for inciting unrest, and cites HRANA’s figure of over 3,600 deaths; he labels rioters as U.S./Israel‑funded and “naïve youths”[7].

Jan 23, 2026 – Student protests spread to eight Tehran universities and sites in Mashhad and Isfahan after a January 4 class suspension; chants include “woman, life, freedom” and the pre‑1979 lion‑and‑sun flag, reflecting both anti‑regime and pro‑monarchy sentiment[1].

Feb 4, 2026 – Khamenei warns a U.S. strike would trigger regional war while allowing Iran back into nuclear talks; he authorizes harsh repression, noting “rioters must be put in their place” and logging over 6,700 deaths according to activists[6].

Feb 19, 2026 – A Trump adviser tells Axios there is a “90 %” chance of a U.S. strike within weeks as Iran’s nuclear sites are hardened and protests persist in five provinces, with activists reporting at least 7,000 killed and over 50,000 detained; the U.S. moves the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group into the region[30].

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