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Russia Keeps Delegation Unchanged for Geneva Talks While Expanding Drone Programs and Sabotage Efforts

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Delegation Composition and War Demands Remain Stable Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Vladimir Medinsky will head the Russian team at the Geneva talks, accompanied by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, GRU First Deputy Lt. Gen. Vladimir Kostyukov, and RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev in a separate economic working group, indicating no alteration to Russia’s original war demands [1]. The unchanged delegation signals Moscow’s intent to present a consistent negotiating position despite mounting international pressure [1].

Energy‑Strike Moratorium Proposed as Propaganda Tool Ukrainian Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov plans to introduce a temporary cease‑fire on energy strikes at the Geneva conference, echoing previous moratoriums that allowed Russia to stockpile drones and missiles while Ukraine’s grid remained heavily damaged [1]. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that all Ukrainian power plants have been hit, casting doubt on the humanitarian credibility of the proposal [1].

BARS‑Sarmat Center Expands to Accelerate Drone Capabilities Former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin announced the Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center will add “Dnepr”, “Stalingrad” and “Bagration” detachments, a new “soldier technologist” specialty, and a Ustinov Scientific Detachment to integrate reconnaissance, strike, electronic warfare, production, and training functions [1]. The expansion aims to speed the diffusion of Russian‑Ukrainian drone technology across six new USF brigades, enhancing battlefield autonomy [1].

GRU Recruits Former Wagner Personnel for Sabotage in Europe Western intelligence briefed the Financial Times that the GRU is employing ex‑Wagner recruiters to enlist economically vulnerable Europeans for arson attacks and fake‑Nazi propaganda operations, reviving a sabotage campaign that had waned in 2025 after arrests and a resource shift back to Ukraine [1]. This renewed effort reflects Moscow’s strategy to destabilize European societies through covert actions [1].

Ukrainian Missile Strike Misses Kapustin Yar Facility Satellite imagery released by a Ukrainian OSINT outlet showed a six‑metre crater near a preparation‑area fence at Kapustin Yar, contradicting Ukrainian General Staff claims that a January 2025 strike damaged the missile‑service facility [1]. A Russian milblogger reported that four FP‑5 Flamingo missiles were launched, suggesting the weapons either missed or were intercepted [1].

Ukrainian Strikes Damage Russian Energy Sites Amid Limited Front‑line Gains Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko posted fire images of the Belgorod CHP, later confirmed by Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, while a burning substation in Bryansk was acknowledged by Governor Alexander Bogomaz [1]. Russian offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk on Feb 15‑16 produced no confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalemate on the ground despite intensified strikes [1].

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Timeline

Jan 2023 – Valery Gerasimov assumes leadership of five‑to‑seven “groups of forces,” a structure later formalized as General Staff Directorates, turning armies into static headquarters and limiting Russian mobility on the front [5].

Late 2024 – Russia unveils the Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile system, derived from the RS‑26 Rubezh, claiming Mach 10 speeds and a range of up to 5,500 km, and hints at its first combat use in Ukraine [2].

Jan 2025 – Ukraine launches an FP‑5 Flamingo missile at the Russian Kapustin Yar missile‑service facility; satellite imagery shows only a six‑metre crater, contradicting Russian claims of damage [6].

Feb 2025 – The “groups of forces” are officially reorganized into General Staff Directorates, cementing a static, positional‑war posture across Russia’s armed forces [5].

Mar 2025 – The Union State treaty between Russia and Belarus enters force, including a clause that any jointly‑deployed nuclear or conventional weapons may be used only as a last‑resort measure [3].

Sep 2025 – Russia and Belarus conduct the “Zapad 2025” joint exercises with ~30,000 troops; Poland responds with “Iron Defender” drills and NATO invokes Article 4 consultations, heightening East‑European tensions [3].

Oct 2025 – Analysts note that Russian forces have reoriented to a positional‑war model, abandoning flexible Battalion Tactical Groups for slower, high‑casualty offensives, while planning a hybrid reconstitution that blends pre‑2022 maneuver with new precision‑strike capabilities [5].

Nov 14 2025 – A detailed assessment highlights cultural constraints within the Russian military—punishment for failure and suppression of bad news—that risk undermining the planned hybrid force reconstitution [5].

Dec 9 2025 – President Alexander Lukashenko announces talks with Moscow on redeploying nuclear weapons to Belarus and says the Oreshnik system will become combat‑ready in Belarus this month, capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads [3].

Dec 18 2025 – Belarus receives its first Oreshnik units and places them on combat‑alert duty; President Lukashenko cites prepared positions, while Putin pledges mass production of the system within the same month [2].

Dec 30 2025 – Russia publicly displays Oreshnik missiles on mobile launchers in Belarus, emphasizing their nuclear‑capable, Mach 10 speed and a 5,500 km reach that could strike Europe or the U.S. from Belarusian territory [1].

Dec 30 2025 – The Oreshnik system enters active service in Belarus, with up to ten launchers slated for deployment; Putin reiterates that the missiles will be on combat duty before year‑end, and a Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting in Florida underscores parallel diplomatic pushes for a Ukraine peace settlement [4].

Feb 15‑16 2026 – Ukrainian forces strike Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Bryansk, while front‑line offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kupyansk and Pokrovsk make limited advances without confirmed territorial gains [6].

Feb 17 2026 – The Kremlin confirms that Foreign Minister Vladimir Medinsky will lead Russia’s delegation at upcoming Geneva talks, with no changes to its war demands; Ukraine proposes a temporary cease‑fire on energy strikes, and Russia expands the BARS‑Sarmat Center to accelerate drone integration across six new brigades [6].

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