Ken Paxton Leads Texas GOP Senate Primary Race Ahead of March Vote
Updated (3 articles)
Paxton Tops Early Primary Polls With 38% Support A University of Houston Hobby School poll shows Paxton at 38% of likely Republican voters, ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 31% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%[1]. The Texas Republican primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026[1]. State law mandates a May 26 runoff if no candidate reaches a 50% majority[1].
Impeachment, Investigation, and Divorce Scandals Shadow Campaign The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023, but the Senate declined to remove him later that year[1]. State authorities opened a securities‑fraud investigation in 2024[1]. In 2025 his wife, a state senator, filed for divorce on “biblical grounds”[1].
Fundraising Gap Widens Between Paxton and Cornyn Allies Advertisers have reserved $92.8 million in TV spots for the primary, with Cornyn‑aligned groups buying $58.9 million and Paxton’s supporters purchasing only $2.3 million[1]. National Republicans warn that a Paxton nomination could require hundreds of millions in additional spending[1]. They argue the cost could help Democrats, who need to flip four Senate seats to gain control[1].
Endorsement Landscape Shifts As Traditional Backers Hold Back Oil‑and‑gas magnate Tim Dunn, a longtime Paxton supporter, has not contributed to his campaign this cycle[1]. Conservative nonprofit Turning Point Action endorsed Paxton this month[1]. Other traditional backers are hesitating to publicly back him amid the controversies[1].
National GOP Concerns Over Senate Seat Flip Potential Party leaders fear that investing heavily in Paxton could drain resources from other competitive races[1]. They warn that a costly Texas race might boost Democratic chances in the Senate, where four pickups are needed for a majority[1]. The debate underscores tension between ideological loyalty and strategic calculations within the GOP[1].
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Timeline
2023 – Texas House impeaches Attorney General Ken Paxton on multiple charges, but the Texas Senate later votes not to remove him, allowing him to remain in office despite the impeachment [1].
2024 – State authorities open a securities‑fraud investigation into Paxton’s financial dealings, adding a federal‑level legal cloud to his political profile [1].
July 2025 – Angela Paxton announces on social media that “recent discoveries” have prompted her to file for divorce, citing adultery and “biblical grounds” as the basis for the filing [2].
2025 – Angela Paxton formally files for divorce from Ken Paxton on adultery grounds, referencing “biblical grounds” in public statements, while Paxton files a response denying the allegations [2].
Oct 2025 – An October poll by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University shows Paxton leading with 34% over Cornyn’s 33% and Hunt’s 22%, indicating a narrow edge in the GOP Senate race [3].
Dec 4, 2025 – A co/efficient poll released on December 4 finds Cornyn narrowly ahead of Paxton, 28% to 27%, with Hunt at 19% and 26% of voters undecided, highlighting volatility ahead of the March primary [3].
Dec 19, 2025 – A Texas judge unseals the Paxton divorce filings, releasing the adultery complaint and confirming that future filings will be made public under a media agreement, intensifying scrutiny of Paxton’s personal life during the campaign [2].
Dec 26, 2025 – The Polymarket prediction market places Paxton at roughly 62% probability of winning the Republican nomination, far ahead of Cornyn at 28% and Hunt at 8.8%, with total market volume exceeding $735,000, reflecting high public interest and betting stakes [3].
Feb 21, 2026 – A University of Houston Hobby School poll shows Paxton leading GOP primary voters at 38%, ahead of Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%; however, Paxton trails Cornyn in fundraising, with Cornyn‑aligned groups spending $58.9 million of $92.8 million in reserved ads while Paxton’s supporters purchase only $2.3 million, and Turning Point Action endorses Paxton this month [1].
Mar 3, 2026 – Texas holds its Republican Senate primary, where Paxton seeks to unseat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn; if no candidate reaches a 50% majority, the top two will advance to a runoff per state law [1].
May 26, 2026 – Should the March primary produce no majority winner, Texas schedules a runoff election on May 26 to determine the GOP nominee, extending the contest and potentially reshaping campaign dynamics [1].
2026 election cycle (future) – National Republican leaders warn that a Paxton nomination could require “hundreds of millions” in additional spending and risk aiding Democrats, who need to flip four Senate seats for control, underscoring the broader national stakes of the Texas race [1].