Iran Escalates Naval Drills and Strait Closure as Trump Mulls Strike

Updated 2026-02-19 19:29:30+00:00 (6 articles)

Image: AP

Source Full size

U.S. carrier fleet massed while Iran conducts live‑fire drills By February 19 the United States had positioned the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, dozens of fighter jets, warships, guided destroyers, fuel tankers and missile‑defence systems in the Persian Gulf, with a second carrier scheduled to arrive in the Mediterranean the following week [1]. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out a joint live‑fire naval exercise with Russia near Bandar Abbas, simulating the rescue of a hijacked vessel [1]. Simultaneously, Tehran announced a temporary closure of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly 20 percent of global oil, heightening commercial risk [2].

Geneva talks produced limited progress and divergent agendas The February 17 meeting in Geneva, mediated by Oman, yielded “progress” and agreed “guiding principles” for future negotiations, according to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Aragchi [1]. U.S. Vice‑President J.D. Vance warned that “gaps remain” between the parties, reflecting Washington’s insistence on addressing Iran’s missile programme and regional proxies in addition to its nuclear activities [1]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that the United States seeks a complete end to uranium enrichment, a demand Tehran rejects as outside the scope of talks [1].

Supreme Leader’s rhetoric signals readiness for retaliation On February 19 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted a Quranic verse urging citizens to “assail” any aggressor, a direct reference to potential U.S. action [1]. In a separate broadcast, Khamenei warned that even the world’s strongest army could receive a crippling “slap” if it attacks Iran [2]. Iranian atomic chief Mohammad Eslami defended the nation’s enrichment program as compliant with IAEA rules and emphasized domestic self‑sufficiency amid accusations of external sabotage [1].

Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatens oil markets and naval safety Iran’s temporary closure of sections of the strait prompted concerns that the disruption could affect the flow of roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil, echoing rare escalations seen only during the 1980s [2]. U.S. Central Command cautioned that unsafe behavior near U.S. forces could increase collision and escalation risks, though it remained silent on the specific drill [2]. The closure follows a February 4 incident in which a U.S. Navy fighter shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln and a subsequent harassment of a U.S.-flagged merchant vessel in the waterway [2].

Sources

Timeline

Dec 5, 2025 – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches the two‑day Shahid Mohammad Nazeri naval drill across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman, displaying missiles, drones and electronic‑warfare systems; Iranian units caution U.S. warships to stay clear and threaten decisive action if interfered, underscoring Tehran’s intent to showcase naval readiness after the June U.S. F‑35 strikes on its nuclear sites and amid a GCC summit backing UAE claims to disputed islands[3].

June 2025 – The United States carries out F‑35 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the first direct U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear program and raising regional tensions; later that month Israel and Iran engage in a 12‑day war during which the U.S. bombs three Iranian nuclear sites, further inflaming security dynamics in the Gulf[3][5].

1980s (historical) – During the Iran‑Iraq war, Iran intermittently harasses shipping and mines the Strait of Hormuz but never enforces a full closure, establishing a precedent for limited maritime pressure that contrasts with the 2026 temporary shutdown[4].

Late Dec 2025 – Jan 2026 – Iranian security forces intensify a crackdown on protests that began Dec. 28, with the U.S.–based Human Rights Activists New Agency reporting over 5,800 deaths by late Jan 2026 and more than 49,500 detentions, fueling international condemnation and shaping U.S. threat calculations[1].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Air Forces Central Command begins multi‑day drills to sharpen rapid deployment, operate from dispersed sites and sustain combat sorties, while President Trump posts “Time is running out” on Truth Social, threatens an “armada” against Iran and demands a “fair and equitable” nuclear deal; the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrives in the region, though no final decision on action is made[1].

Jan 28, 2026 – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warns that Iran’s armed forces stand ready to respond “immediately and powerfully” to any aggression, and Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi urges the United States to stop making threats, reflecting Tehran’s dual message of readiness and openness to negotiation[1].

Jan 28, 2026 – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and EU officials move to curb escalation, with France, Italy and Israel backing a possible EU designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, indicating a coordinated diplomatic push against Tehran’s paramilitary forces[1].

Jan 31, 2026 – CENTCOM issues an explicit warning that any unsafe behavior by Iran’s IRGC near U.S. forces in the Strait of Hormuz—such as low‑altitude armed flights or weapons aimed at U.S. assets—could trigger escalation, underscoring the U.S. demand for professional conduct[2].

Jan 31, 2026 – Iran announces a two‑day live‑fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz for the upcoming Sunday and Monday, a corridor handling about one‑fifth of global oil trade, raising concerns about commercial‑traffic safety[2].

Jan 31, 2026 – Iran’s army chief Amir Hatami affirms high defensive readiness, while Foreign Minister Araghchi posts on X that Tehran remains ready to negotiate and calls on the United States to “set aside their threats,” illustrating Iran’s “knife and handshake” strategy[2].

Jan 31, 2026 – Explosions in Ahvaz kill four people and a blast in Bandar Abbas kills one and injures 14, adding to regional tension; the IRGC‑linked Tasnim agency denies reports that IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri was killed, highlighting the fog of conflict[2].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a Tehran crowd that any U.S. military action would spark a regional war and that Iran will deliver a heavy blow, directly linking President Trump’s threats to potential large‑scale conflict[5].

Feb 1, 2026 – Iran conducts the scheduled live‑fire drill in the Strait of Hormuz as the USS Abraham Lincoln operates in the Arabian Sea, coinciding with the start of commemoration of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and reinforcing Tehran’s deterrent posture[5].

Feb 1, 2026 – The European Union designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization, prompting Iran’s parliament speaker to label all EU militaries terrorist and former Guard commander Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf to announce a reciprocal designation, escalating diplomatic tit‑for‑tat[5].

Feb 4, 2026 – A U.S. Navy fighter shoots down an Iranian drone that approaches the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier, and Iran later harasses a U.S.-flagged merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating the immediate risk of kinetic encounters amid the live‑fire drills[4].

Feb 17, 2026 – In Geneva, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi says the meeting yields “progress” and agrees on “guiding principles” for future talks, while U.S. Vice‑President J.D. Vance warns that “gaps remain,” reflecting mixed diplomatic signals amid rising military pressure[6].

Feb 18, 2026 – Iran temporarily closes portions of the Strait of Hormuz, halting traffic through a route that moves roughly 20 % of world oil, marking a rare escalation since the 1980s and signaling potential economic fallout if U.S. attacks proceed; Supreme Leader Khamenei warns the world’s strongest army could receive a crippling “slap” that prevents recovery[4].

Feb 18, 2026 – President Trump signals that a decision on ordering an Iran strike will be made over the weekend, while the United States positions an aircraft carrier, dozens of fighter jets, warships, guided destroyers, fuel tankers and missile‑defence systems in the region; a second carrier is slated to arrive in the Mediterranean the following week, indicating preparation for possible escalation[6].

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran and Russia conduct joint live‑fire naval drills near Bandar Abbas that simulate rescuing a hijacked vessel, the second such exercise since U.S.–Iran tensions surged, demonstrating Tehran’s willingness to cooperate with Moscow on maritime security[6].

Feb 19, 2026 – Khamenei posts a Quranic verse, “So should anyone aggress against you, assail him in the manner he assailed you,” urging citizens to repel external aggression and hinting at possible Iranian retaliation[6].

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran’s atomic chief Mohammad Eslami declares that Iran’s nuclear activities comply with IAEA rules, that no nation can deny Iran peaceful nuclear benefits, and that the country built its entire nuclear chain domestically because external supply routes are “tainted by Zionist infiltration and sabotage,” reinforcing Tehran’s self‑sufficiency narrative[6].