IMF lifts 2026 projection by a tenth of a point The World Economic Outlook now expects South Korea’s economy to grow 1.9% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, a change confirmed by the finance ministry and reflecting a modest acceleration in outlook for Asia’s fourth‑largest economy[1].

Upgrades have continued since July The IMF has incrementally raised Korea’s forecast each quarter since July, positioning the 1.9% estimate just above the 1.8% average growth rate for advanced economies and signaling confidence in the country’s momentum[1].

Domestic forecasts vary around the IMF figure Seoul’s own projection stands at 2.0%, the Bank of Korea expects 1.8%, and the OECD projects 2.1% growth for 2026, showing a range of expectations that nonetheless cluster near the IMF’s outlook[1].

Recovery attributed to policy support and consumer sentiment The IMF notes that Korea entered a recovery phase in the second half of last year, driven by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies and improved consumer confidence, and it anticipates further strengthening of growth this year[1].

Downside risks highlighted by the IMF Potential threats include heavy investment concentration in AI and advanced‑technology firms, persistent trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and elevated debt levels in major economies, all of which could dampen the projected growth trajectory[1].