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Trump Issues Ten‑Day Ultimatum as US Carrier Fleet Moves Toward Iran Amid Draft Deal Talks

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  • Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war
    Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war
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    Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war (Credit: via ap) Source Full size
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  • Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026.
    Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026. Source Full size
  • MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images)
    MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images)
    Image: Newsweek
    MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult.
    Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult.
    Image: BBC
    Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent
    Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent (Credit: via ap) Source Full size
  • Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla.
    Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
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  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey.
    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey.
    Image: Newsweek
    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Source Full size
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  • Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult.
    Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult.
    Image: BBC
    Trump told the Board of Peace, Trump said that talks with Iran have been 'very good' but historically difficult. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla.
    Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    Left: Screengrab of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in an interview with MSNBC. Right: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026, en route to Washington from West Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
  • Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026.
    Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group sail in formation in the Arabian Sea while aircraft fly overhead, on February 6, 2026. Source Full size
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey.
    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey.
    Image: Newsweek
    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi gives a statement at the Ritz Hotel as he meets Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on January 30, 2026 in Istanbul, Turkey. Source Full size
  • MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images)
    MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images)
    Image: Newsweek
    MUNICH, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 14: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a key note speech at the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. The conference, which brings together government leaders, security experts and defence ministers, is taking place at a time when the traditional western political and military alliance is facing rupture due to the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. (Photo by Johannes Simon/Getty Images) Source Full size
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    Image: AP
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  • Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent
    Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    Trump warns he's considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent (Credit: via ap) Source Full size
  • Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war
    Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    Iran holds more drills and US carrier nears Mideast in latest preparations for possible war (Credit: via ap) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP
    L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP
    Image: Le Monde
    L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP (KHAMENEI.IR/AFP) Source Full size

Trump’s Ten‑Day Deal Deadline and Threat of Limited Strikes President Donald Trump warned Iran on Feb 19‑20 that it has “ten‑to‑fifteen days” to present a nuclear‑deal draft, threatening “bad things” and saying he is “considering” limited military action if talks stall [10][11][12][9][8]. He offered no concrete target list, emphasizing that a strike remains optional while diplomatic resolution is still preferred [10][15]. The rhetoric was delivered at the Board of Peace meeting and in separate press briefings, where Trump mixed diplomatic language with the prospect of an air campaign [7][14].

U.S. Military Buildup Reaches Largest Post‑2003 Scale The United States has moved the nuclear‑powered carrier USS Gerald R. Ford from the Caribbean through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean, joining the existing USS Abraham Lincoln group and adding roughly 50 combat aircraft, including F‑35s and F‑22s [4][5][8][13][9]. This deployment represents the biggest U.S. Middle‑East force presence since the 2003 Iraq war and is intended to support any potential strike and protect regional bases [2][6][10]. Additional warships, hundreds of jets, and a “conditions‑based” pull‑out of Syrian bases are part of the same buildup [8][11][13].

Iran Announces Draft Nuclear Agreement Within Days Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told “Morning Joe” that Tehran will finalize a draft nuclear agreement in the “next two‑to‑three days” and hopes “real, serious negotiations” can begin within a week [2][4][5][6]. He simultaneously warned Iran is “prepared for war and prepared for peace,” echoing the regime’s dual‑track posture [2][4][5]. The draft is expected to address uranium‑enrichment limits, though Iran rejects any U.S. demand for a zero‑enrichment commitment [2][6][3].

Domestic Unrest and Repression Intensify in Iran CTP‑ISW recorded at least 20 anti‑regime protests across eight provinces on Feb 20, including five rallies of over 1,000 participants, marking the largest single‑day protests since Jan 11 [3][8]. The regime has sentenced at least 26 demonstrators, including a minor, to death, underscoring a severe crackdown [3]. Protest activity follows a 40‑day mourning period for earlier demonstrators and coincides with the “twelve‑day war” of June 2025, which Iran cites as a lesson in combining diplomacy with force [1][6].

Analysts Argue Regime Survival Is Independent of Leader’s Fate Ross Harrison (Middle East Institute, cited by Le Monde) argues that even the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not topple Iran’s system, describing the regime as a “snake” that cannot be cut off by decapitation [1]. He characterizes the current U.S.–Iran standoff as an ultimatum rather than negotiations, noting that a rapid “flash” attack similar to Venezuela is unlikely to succeed [1]. The analysis also points to Tehran’s defensive posture shaped by the June 2025 Israeli‑U.S. strikes, which demonstrated that war can accompany talks [1].

Hezbollah’s Calculus Suggests Limited Symbolic Response The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Hezbollah may launch a limited symbolic rocket strike if it perceives a U.S./Israeli attempt to topple Tehran, while larger missile or drone attacks remain less probable [3][8]. The group’s willingness is constrained by recent weakening and its dependence on Iranian financial support [3].

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Timeline

2015 – The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is signed, limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, establishing the baseline for later negotiations and the 2018 U.S. withdrawal. [Historical]

2018 – The United States withdraws from the JCPOA and reinstates sanctions, heightening tensions and setting the stage for future confrontations over Iran’s nuclear program. [Historical]

June 2025 – The United States and Israel conduct a 12‑day campaign that destroys several Iranian nuclear facilities, halting enrichment and prompting Tehran to suspend uranium processing, a benchmark cited in later U.S. threats. [17]

Dec 12, 2025 – President Donald Trump tells reporters the U.S. will strike any new Iranian nuclear site if Tehran restarts its program, claiming Iran “could have avoided” the June attacks by accepting a deal earlier. [17]

Jan 28, 2026 – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran has not requested talks and urges Washington to stop threatening war, while Trump asserts Iran is “ready for a deal” and orders an “armada” of warships into the region. [16][4]

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump weighs a major new strike after stalled talks, posting on Truth Social a demand for a “fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” and warning the next strike would be “far worse” than the summer attacks. [11]

Jan 30, 2026 – At a White House briefing Trump claims Iran prefers a diplomatic deal over war and warns its “window to strike a nuclear deal is closing,” linking the U.S. naval buildup in the Gulf to Tehran’s choices. [4][8]

Feb 2, 2026 – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian orders the start of nuclear negotiations with the United States, while Trump expresses optimism a deal could prevent conflict and orders the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln toward West Asia. [23][21]

Feb 3, 2026 – Pezeshkian says talks must be “free from threats and unreasonable expectations,” and Trump threatens “tremendous force,” deploying the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and Tomahawk‑armed destroyers as leverage. [3][1]

Feb 5, 2026 – Trump tells NBC the Iranian Supreme Leader should be “very worried” as Muscat talks approach, while Iran showcases the long‑range Khorramshahr‑4 missile and vows swift retaliation to any U.S. strike. [9]

Feb 6, 2026 – With approval below 40%, Trump faces domestic pressure; U.S.–Iran talks are slated to begin Friday in Oman amid reports that Iran’s internal crises are the weakest in 45 years. [8]

Feb 11, 2026 – The United States and Iran consider a second round of nuclear talks after the June 2025 “12‑day war” and a nationwide protest crackdown, while Trump moves additional naval assets into the Persian Gulf and warns of a strike if protest killings continue. [20]

Feb 16, 2026 – Secretary of State Marco Rubio says “very difficult” to achieve “real deals” because “radical Shia clerics” dominate decision‑making, as the U.S. adds the nuclear‑powered carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to join USS Abraham Lincoln in the region. [15]

Feb 17, 2026 – Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces a “general agreement” reached with the United States in Geneva, laying groundwork for a draft nuclear text while keeping missile negotiations off the table. [14]

Feb 18, 2026 – U.S. forces stand ready for a weekend strike, but Trump remains undecided; the Situation Room briefs him on indirect Geneva talks that produced guiding principles but no resolution, and the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is slated to arrive in the Mediterranean. [6]

Feb 19, 2026 – Trump gives the world a “probably, 10‑day” deadline to see a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal or face military action, while the U.S. deploys a second carrier strike group, Congress plans a War Powers vote, and Britain blocks use of its bases for any strike. [2][5][13][27]

Feb 20, 2026 – At a Board of Peace meeting Trump issues a new ultimatum that mixes diplomatic language with the threat of a “tremendous force” air campaign, the U.S. completes its largest Middle‑East military buildup since 2003, and the White House warns Iran would be “very wise” to accept a deal. [1][12][18][22][24]

Feb 21, 2026 – Trump says he is “considering” limited strikes even as Araghchi promises a draft nuclear deal within two‑to‑three days, while the U.S. positions its largest West‑Asia force—including the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford—and analysts note Hezbollah’s potential response. [22][26][28]

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