June 2025 – The United States conducts a 37‑hour B‑2 stealth‑bomber mission from Missouri to Iran, dropping bombs on three nuclear facilities and demonstrating a willingness to use strategic airpower against Tehran’s nuclear program [3].

Oct 2025 – The nuclear‑powered carrier USS Gerald R Ford redeploys to the Caribbean to support a pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, marking the last U.S. carrier presence in the Middle East before the 2026 buildup [3].

Dec 28, 2025 – Nationwide protests erupt in Iran after the rial collapses; the crackdown begins a two‑week internet blackout and sets the stage for thousands of deaths and mass arrests [18][14].

Jan 21, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warns in a Wall Street Journal op‑ed that Tehran will use “everything it has” if attacked, while the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group transits the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean and F‑15E Strike Eagles and a HIMARS system arrive in the region [14].

Jan 23, 2026 – A senior White House official announces that the United States will withdraw roughly 1,000 troops from Syria in the coming months, deeming the Syrian government capable of leading counter‑terrorism after years of U.S. involvement since 2015 [2]; simultaneously, the Pentagon moves an additional 5,700 service members and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group toward the Middle East, with President Trump stating the fleet is “just in case” and that any strike would make last year’s attacks “look like peanuts” [15][16].

Jan 23, 2026 – President Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One that “we have an armada…maybe we won’t have to use it,” signaling a direct warning of military action as Iran’s death toll from protests climbs to at least 5,000 according to activists, while official figures remain at 3,117 [13][11].

Jan 24, 2026 – IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour declares the Revolutionary Guard “more ready than ever, finger on the trigger,” urging the U.S. and Israel to avoid miscalculation as U.S. warships, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, move through the Indian Ocean; European airlines cancel or delay Dubai flights amid the heightened risk [18][19].

Jan 25, 2026 – Tehran unveils a giant anti‑U.S. mural in Enghelab Square depicting a blood‑stained USS Abraham Lincoln and the slogan “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” coinciding with Trump’s claim that the carrier group is positioned “just in case” and his assertion that Iran halted 800 executions, a claim Iran’s top prosecutor calls “completely false” [17][11].

Jan 26, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier and three destroyers reach the Indian Ocean, marking the first U.S. carrier presence in the area since the Gerald R Ford left for the Caribbean, while Trump repeats that the ships are a precautionary “massive fleet” and warns that any strike would dwarf the June 2025 attacks [6][16].

Jan 27, 2026 – Tehran posts a blood‑stained billboard in Revolution Square showing a destroyed U.S. carrier and a biblical warning “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” while President Trump declares the U.S. navy has a “big armada” near Iran, larger than the force sent to Venezuela, and says the deployment is “just in case” [10][11].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that a “massive Armada” headed by the USS Abraham Lincoln is moving quickly toward Iran and promises “far worse” attacks if Tehran does not accept a deal; CENTCOM announces a multi‑day combat‑air‑power exercise across its area of responsibility to demonstrate readiness [8][5][9].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran’s state‑linked Tasnim news agency announces the deployment of 1,000 strategic drones across all army branches, emphasizing rapid combat readiness as the U.S. armada sails toward the region and Tehran vows “unprecedented” retaliation against U.S. assets such as Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base [7].

Jan 30, 2026 – U.S. forces surge in the Middle East: the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrives in the northern Arabian Sea with F/A‑18E, F‑35C, and EA‑18G aircraft; THAAD and Patriot batteries deploy to Al Udeid Air Base; and a multiday CENTCOM exercise begins to prove the ability to “deploy, disperse, and sustain combat power” across the theater [3].

Feb 19, 2026 – The United States positions two aircraft carriers, USS Gerald R Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln, in the Mediterranean and off Oman respectively, expanding the regional fleet to 12 warships; analyst Justin Crump notes the build‑up enables an 800‑sortie daily strike capacity, and President Trump warns a decision on Iran will come within ten days [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – A senior White House official confirms the United States will pull the remaining ~1,000 troops from Syria over the next months, linking the drawdown to on‑the‑ground conditions and noting that the Syrian government will now lead counter‑terrorism, even as naval power near Iran continues to expand with the Abraham Lincoln and the forthcoming arrival of Gerald R Ford [2].