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India‑U.S. Trade Deal Triggers Farmer Protest Threats as Parliament Debates 18% Tariff Cuts

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  • According to Trump, India has agreed to purchase over $500bn worth of US goods.
    Image: BBC
    According to Trump, India has agreed to purchase over $500bn worth of US goods. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House on February 13 in Washington, D.C.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House on February 13 in Washington, D.C. Source Full size
  • None
    Image: AP
    Source Full size
  • President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House on February 13 in Washington, D.C.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference in the East Room at the White House on February 13 in Washington, D.C. Source Full size
  • None
    Image: AP
    Source Full size

Deal announcement and core tariff changes President Donald Trump announced on Feb 2 2026 that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on Indian exports from 25‑50 % to 18 % and remove the 25 % penalty linked to Russian‑oil purchases, while India pledged to cease buying Russian crude and to purchase over $500 billion of U.S. goods across energy, technology and agriculture [4][7][13][16][17]. The announcement came via Trump’s Truth Social post and was echoed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on X, who highlighted the “Made‑in‑India” benefit for 1.4 billion citizens [10][15][17].

Government’s sectoral impact narrative Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told Parliament that the pact safeguards India’s farm and dairy sectors, lowers duties on labour‑intensive products to 18 % to boost MSME exports, and aligns with “Make in India” and “Design in India” initiatives [2][9][11][14]. He posted his full remarks on X after a parliamentary ruckus, emphasizing that agriculture and dairy will remain protected while textiles, gems, leather and engineering goods stand to gain [2][11].

Opposition and farmer concerns over agricultural liberalisation Congress leader K. Kharge warned that the deal could spark massive farmer protests similar to the 2021 farm‑law backlash, arguing that zero‑tariff U.S. imports and an 18 % Indian export duty will pit Indian farmers against subsidised American crops [1][6][8][12]. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha and All India Kisan Sabha demanded the full text of the agreement, a parliamentary review, and warned of a “betrayal” that could endanger the 48 % of the workforce dependent on agriculture [6][8][12].

Parliamentary proceedings and communication channels Opposition MPs disrupted Goyal’s statement, barred some speakers, and criticised the use of social media rather than formal parliamentary notice to disclose the deal [2][7][8]. Leader of the House J.P. Nadda defended the government’s national‑security achievements and economic reforms, while Rajya Sabha Chairman C.P. Radhakrishnan cited decorum rules to limit debate [1][2].

Discrepancies and remaining uncertainties While Trump asserted that India will stop Russian oil purchases, Indian officials have not officially confirmed this shift, and Goyal omitted any oil‑related commitments [7][13][15]. The scope of the agreement remains ambiguous: some sources describe it as a “mini‑deal” or first tranche of a broader FTA, and details on non‑tariff barriers and agricultural concessions are still pending [7][9][13].

Sources

Timeline

Feb 13, 2025 – India and the United States hold their first White House meeting, launching a series of bilateral trade negotiations that later involve eight phone calls between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump, according to the Ministry of External Affairs [22].

Jul 30, 2025 – President Trump imposes a 25 % tariff on Indian imports, marking the first major U.S. trade penalty on India and signalling a shift toward a tougher stance tied to geopolitical concerns [30].

Aug 27, 2025 – The U.S. expands the tariff on Indian goods to 50 %, adding a 25 % surcharge specifically for India’s purchases of Russian oil, thereby intensifying pressure on Delhi to alter its energy sourcing [30].

Nov 2025 – Despite the 50 % tariff, India’s exports to the United States rise 22 % year‑on‑year, showing that trade activity continues even as negotiations stall [3].

Jan 5, 2026 – President Trump claims that U.S. tariff receipts will exceed $600 billion, framing the levies as a source of national strength and security [27].

Jan 5, 2026 – Trump asserts that India “reduced it very substantially” by cutting Russian oil imports to please the United States, linking the tariff policy directly to Delhi’s energy decisions [28].

Jan 6, 2026 – At a GOP retreat, Trump says Prime Minister Modi is “not that happy with me” over the tariffs tied to Russian oil purchases, while also noting Modi’s personal request for a private meeting [26].

Jan 8, 2026 – Trump backs a bill that would allow up to 500 % tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and announces the United States’ withdrawal from the International Solar Alliance, heightening diplomatic pressure on India [24].

Jan 9, 2026 – U.S. ambassador‑designate Sergio Gor lands in New Delhi, stating he is “great to be back” and emphasizing the “opportunities ahead” for the bilateral relationship [20].

Jan 9, 2026 – The Ministry of External Affairs rebuts Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s claim, confirming that Modi and Trump spoke eight times in 2025 and reaffirming India’s commitment to a balanced trade pact [22].

Jan 10, 2026 – India’s Parliament schedules the Budget Session to begin on Jan 28, setting the legislative calendar that will include debate over the pending trade agreements [21].

Jan 12, 2026 – Ambassador Gor tells reporters that trade talks remain active and that the next call to discuss the deal is slated for Tuesday, underscoring ongoing diplomatic engagement despite accusations of delay [2].

Feb 2, 2026 – President Trump announces a surprise U.S.–India trade deal that cuts the U.S. tariff on Indian goods to 18 % and removes the 25 % penalty for Russian oil purchases, while claiming India will cease buying Russian crude and commit $500 billion to U.S. imports; Modi hails the move on X as a win for “Made‑in‑India” products [4][5][19].

Feb 2, 2026 – External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar arrives in Washington for a three‑day visit that includes the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, signaling a broader strategic agenda beyond tariffs [19].

Feb 3, 2026 – The United States formally reduces its tariff on Indian imports from 25 % to 18 %, and the 25 % penalty linked to Russian oil purchases is eliminated, creating immediate market relief [18].

Feb 3, 2026 – Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says detailed implementation steps for the tariff reduction will be released “soon,” indicating that technical work on the agreement is underway [11].

Feb 3, 2026 – Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha press the government for clarification on the deal’s impact on farmers, the $500 billion purchase claim, and the shift of oil sourcing to the United States and Venezuela [9].

Feb 3, 2026 – The Seafood Exporters Association of India celebrates the tariff cut, projecting a rebound in export volumes that had fallen 6.3 % in value and 15 % in volume during April‑Nov 2025 [14].

Feb 3, 2026 – Indian equity markets rally, with the Nifty 50 up 4.86 % and the Sensex up 4.48 %, while gems, textiles and leather stocks jump 15‑20 % on news of the tariff reduction [16].

Feb 4, 2026 – Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal tells Parliament that the agreement fully protects India’s farm and dairy sectors while cutting tariffs on labour‑intensive goods to 18 %, linking the pact to “Make in India” and MSME growth [6].

Feb 4, 2026 – Congress leader G. Kharge warns that the deal could trigger farmer protests comparable to the 2021 farm‑law backlash, arguing it would “destroy” Indian agriculture if passed [7].

Feb 4, 2026 – NCP chief Sharad Pawar says a detailed picture of the trade agreement will emerge within 48 hours, after which he will assess its implications for Indian farmers [8].

Feb 4, 2026 – The United States schedules the opening remarks for the Critical Minerals Ministerial, to be delivered by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aiming to formalise joint exploration and processing efforts [12].

Feb 4, 2026 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent notes that India’s Russian‑oil purchases have “collapsed,” and the removal of the oil‑linked penalty creates a pathway to cut Russia’s war‑funding [4].

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