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Study Finds Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher as Ramadan Begins Under Fragile Cease‑Fire

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Independent Field Study Reveals Major Under‑Reporting The Lancet Global Health published a field assessment on 18 February estimating that Gaza’s health ministry recorded about 35 % fewer violent deaths than actually occurred, rising to roughly 40 % when indirect deaths from disease and malnutrition are included [1]. Researchers collected data on the ground, independent of Gaza authorities, marking the first such benchmark and echoing earlier scientific literature that questioned official figures [1].

Gaza Health Ministry Figures Remain Official Benchmark The ministry continues to report more than 72,000 Palestinian fatalities since the conflict began, a number cited by multiple outlets [2]. The new study argues the ministry omitted many casualties because chaotic conditions hampered body recovery, identification, and reporting for entire families wiped out [1]. This discrepancy highlights a persistent gap between official tallies and independent estimates.

Ramadan Observed Under Cease‑Fire That Still Allows Israeli Fire Ramadan started on 21 February while a U.S.–brokered cease‑fire, in place since 10 October, remains fragile; Israeli fire persists almost daily, killing over 600 Palestinians since the truce began, according to health officials [2]. Families displaced across Gaza, including those in tents at Muwasi, observe the holy month without normal celebrations, relying on limited humanitarian assistance [2].

Humanitarian Aid Strained by Rising Prices and Displacement Waleed al Zamli’s family of eleven lives in tents after his shop was destroyed, depending on a charity kitchen for their first iftar meal [2]. Food prices for meat and poultry have surged beyond pre‑war levels, and the loss of income leaves many items unaffordable, intensifying hardship during Ramadan [2]. The family also mourns the recent death of al Zamli’s son‑in‑law, killed shortly after his marriage.

Implications for Aid Allocation and Accountability Recognizing a higher death toll could reshape aid distribution, accountability mechanisms, and international scrutiny of the conflict’s human cost, though the study does not outline specific policy changes [1]. The findings may pressure donors and agencies to reassess resource needs and reporting standards in the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

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Timeline

Oct 7, 2023 – Hamas launches a coordinated assault on southern Israel, killing ~1,200 civilians and seizing more than 250 hostages, igniting the two‑year Gaza war [25].

Oct 10, 2025 – A U.S.‑brokered cease‑fire (Phase 1) takes effect, delivering a hostage‑prisoner exchange, a partial Israeli withdrawal and an aid surge, while pausing large‑scale combat [4][8].

Dec 4, 2025 – Yasser Abu Shabab, head of the Israel‑backed Popular Forces militia, is shot dead while mediating a family dispute in Rafah, raising doubts about Israel’s buffer‑zone strategy [22][23].

Dec 8, 2025 – A three‑year‑old girl, Ahed Tareq al‑Bayouk, is reportedly shot near her family’s tent in Rafah; the IDF says it is “not aware” of a strike and will review the incident [21].

Dec 11, 2025 – Storm Byron floods tent camps across Gaza, water seeping into mattresses; aid‑truck deliveries fall short of the 600‑per‑day ceiling stipulated by the cease‑fire [20].

Dec 13, 2025 – Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz order the assassination of senior Hamas weapons chief Raed Saad after an explosive device wounds Israeli soldiers; the strike kills Saad and four civilians in a vehicle on the Palestinian side of the Yellow Line [17][18].

Dec 14, 2025 – Hamas confirms Raed Saad’s death, labeling the strike a “genocide” and accusing Israel of cease‑fire violations [15].

Dec 17, 2025 – Heavy rains cause building collapses and flood‑related deaths; UN agencies deliver 250 k winter‑clothing kits, 600 k blankets and 7 k tents, yet still deem needs “vast” [14].

Dec 19, 2025 – Premature newborn Saeed Abdeen dies of hypothermia at Nasser Hospital after being born under‑weight and kept in a tent‑camp [13].

Dec 20, 2025 – Three‑month‑old Shaza Abu Jarad dies of hypothermia in a Gaza City tent; the International Committee of the Red Cross warns that the cold threatens survival for vulnerable civilians [10].

Dec 22, 2025 – Over 400 000 Gaza homes are destroyed, forcing residents to choose between exposed tents and structurally unsafe collapsed buildings; UN shelter needs rise to 1.3 million [12].

Dec 24, 2025 – Netanyahu declares Hamas has breached the cease‑fire after an explosive device wounds an Israeli officer in Rafah, warning of “retaliation” and linking compliance to the October agreement’s disarmament clause [28].

Jan 1, 2026 – Seven‑year‑old Ata Mai drowns in floodwaters that inundate a Gaza City tent camp, part of a growing toll of weather‑related child deaths during the winter crisis [27].

Jan 8, 2026 – UNICEF‑run tents at the ruined Lulwa school in Gaza City begin modest classes for ~1 100 pupils, marking the first regular schooling for many children since the war began [5].

Jan 8, 2026 – Israeli air strikes kill eight people, including four children, in southern Gaza; the truce that began Oct 10 2025 remains “fragile” as both sides accuse each other of violations [4].

Jan 13, 2026 – An Israeli drone strike near the Morag corridor kills three Palestinians alleged to be approaching troops with weapons, occurring as Gaza awaits the formal announcement of a technocratic Board of Peace [11].

Jan 21, 2026 – Israeli strikes in central Gaza kill three journalists working for the Egyptian Relief Committee; Israel says the target was a Hamas‑linked drone operator [3].

Jan 22, 2026 – Families in Khan Younis scavenge garbage for fuel as winter bites; Donald Trump unveils a “Board of Peace” at Davos to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction, while the Rafah crossing is slated to reopen in both directions next week [9].

Jan 24, 2026 – Father Yusuf Zawara kneels over his dead 15‑year‑old son in Shifa Hospital’s morgue, pleading “He’s sleeping… He’ll wake up now,” after an Israeli missile kills the boy and his cousin while they gather firewood [8].

Jan 29, 2026 – A senior Israeli security source tells journalists that the military now regards the Hamas‑run health ministry’s figure of over 70 000 Gaza deaths as “largely accurate,” marking a shift from earlier skepticism [2].

Jan 30, 2026 – Israeli officials publicly cite ~70 000 Palestinian deaths, aligning with the health ministry’s count and acknowledging the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe [7].

Jan 31, 2026 – Israeli air strikes kill at least 32 Palestinians, including children, as Israel says it targeted Hamas “truce violations”; U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announces the start of Phase 2, which will establish a technocratic Palestinian government, begin reconstruction and fully demilitarise Gaza [1].

Feb 4, 2026 – Israeli air strikes kill 23 Gazan civilians, including three children, while targeting Hamas commander Bilal Abu Assi; Israel partially reopens the Rafah crossing for patients and family reunifications, allowing 45 people to cross on Feb 3 and a bus of returnees on Feb 4 [26].

Feb 5, 2026 – Former senior Hamas official Ahmed Youssef, now living in a tent on Al‑Mawassi beach, declares the Oct 7 armed struggle a “fatal error” and says “the armed struggle has failed,” reflecting disillusionment within Hamas leadership [30].

Feb 6, 2026 – Gaza’s health ministry reports 556 Palestinian deaths since the October 2025 cease‑fire, while the Rafah crossing remains open but processes fewer than 50 people per day; Trump’s 20‑point plan is accepted, and the release of the final hostage’s body is cited as a precondition for moving to Phase 2 [6].

Feb 19, 2026 – An independent field study published in The Lancet Global Health estimates Gaza’s violent death toll is under‑counted by ~35 % (up to ~40 % when indirect deaths are included), suggesting the true mortality may exceed official figures [29].

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