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India‑U.S. Trade Talks Postponed as Trump Raises Global Tariff to 15%

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Supreme Court blocks Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, prompting a global tariff shift On 20 February 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, nullifying the reciprocal tariffs he had imposed on several countries, including India [2][4]. The decision left existing sector‑specific duties, such as the 50 % steel and aluminium tariffs, untouched [5]. The Court’s rebuke forced the administration to redesign its trade‑penalty strategy ahead of the scheduled India‑U.S. negotiations [6].

Trump escalates worldwide import levy from 10 % to 15 % Following the Court’s ruling, Trump issued an executive order on 20 February imposing a 10 % ad valorem surcharge on all imports for 150 days, effective 24 February [3][4]. On 21 February he announced a rapid increase to 15 % and labeled the Court’s opinion “ridiculous” and “extraordinarily anti‑American” [2][3]. He framed the hike as a response to the “poorly written” decision and indicated the tariff would be enforced via Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act [6].

India‑U.S. chief negotiators meeting delayed despite interim pact progress The Indian delegation had been slated to begin talks in Washington on 23 February 2026, but on 22 February both sides agreed to postpone the three‑day session to a “mutually convenient date” while they assess the new tariff environment [1][9]. The interim agreement, announced on 2 February, reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25 % to 18 % and leaves India as the sole tariff‑paying party [7][9]. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal still expects the pact to be signed in March and to enter force in April [9].

Indian ministries monitor fallout and highlight strategic gains The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said it is studying the Supreme Court ruling and Trump’s tariff announcements for their impact on India’s trade [4]. Goyal defended the deal, citing a $500 billion import commitment for energy, aircraft, precious metals, technology and coking coal, and noting sectoral benefits for apparel, leather and marine exports [9]. He also announced India’s participation in the U.S.–led Pax Silica coalition to secure critical‑mineral supply chains [9].

Domestic opposition accuses Modi of conceding to U.S. pressure Congress leader Rahul Gandhi called the interim agreement an “ordeal” and accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of compromising India’s sovereignty, while party strategist Jairam Ramesh argued that an 18‑day delay could have spared farmers from tariff‑related distress [7]. Both politicians linked their criticism to the Supreme Court’s decision, suggesting the government rushed the pact before fully evaluating the new U.S. tariff regime [7].

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Timeline

July 30 2025 – The United States imposes a 25 % tariff on Indian imports, framing it as a penalty linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil and marking the first major trade shock in the bilateral relationship [30].

August 27 2025 – The U.S. expands the tariff to 50 % on a broad range of Indian goods, intensifying pressure on Indian exporters and heightening diplomatic tensions [30].

November 2025 – Indian exports to the United States rise 22 % year‑on‑year despite the 50 % tariff, indicating resilient trade flows amid the dispute [3].

December 2 2025 – India’s ambassador Vinay Kwatra hosts a U.S. Senate delegation, discussing sanctions on Russia and the trade impasse, while senior senators weigh a bill that could impose up to 500 % duties on countries buying Russian oil [28].

December 11 2025 – Prime Minister Modi tells President Trump that “progress has been made” in their bilateral relationship during a phone call, underscoring ongoing high‑level engagement [24].

January 5 2026 – President Trump posts that U.S. tariff receipts will top $600 billion, claiming the levies “strengthen our security and finances” and linking the figure to an upcoming Supreme Court decision [27].

January 5 2026 – Trump asserts that India cut Russian oil imports “to please me,” tying Delhi’s energy choices directly to U.S. tariff policy [28].

January 6 2026 – Trump tells a GOP retreat that Prime Minister Modi is “not that happy with me” because of U.S. tariffs tied to Russian oil purchases, while noting their personal rapport [26].

January 7 2026 – Trump repeats that Modi is unhappy, adds that India has waited five years for 68 Apache helicopters and that the delivery will be changed, linking defense issues to the trade dispute [26].

January 9 2026 – Analyst Lutnick claims Modi did not call Trump, suggesting the silence stalled the deal; India’s MEA rebuts, citing eight Modi‑Trump calls in 2025 and emphasizing that negotiations have continued since February 2025 [25][24].

January 12 2026 – U.S. ambassador Sergio Gor confirms that trade talks remain active, announces a scheduled follow‑up call, and stresses the friendship between Trump and Modi despite tariff disagreements [2].

January 27 2026 – The European Union and India sign a “landmark” free‑trade agreement, expected to double EU exports to India by 2032 and prompting Washington to act before being outflanked [1][20].

February 2 2026 – President Trump announces a surprise U.S.–India trade deal that cuts tariffs on Indian goods to 18 % and removes the 25 % penalty on Russian oil, after Modi agrees to halt Russian crude purchases; Modi thanks Trump on behalf of 1.4 billion Indians [4][23].

February 3 2026 – The United States reduces the tariff on Indian products to 18 % via executive order; exporters celebrate the relief while farmer groups protest, fearing subsidised U.S. agricultural imports, and the full scope of the broader agreement remains undisclosed [21][19][22].

February 4 2026 – In Parliament, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal asserts that the deal protects Indian agriculture and dairy, while opposition MPs disrupt the session and farmer leaders warn of a flood of U.S. farm products; Sharad Pawar highlights a new U.S. clause allowing agricultural exports into India [16][17].

February 4 2026 – External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar meets U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, formalising critical‑minerals cooperation ahead of a ministerial meeting and reaffirming Quad commitments [18].

February 5 2026 – Trump declares a historic India‑U.S. trade framework, pledging $500 billion of Indian purchases of U.S. goods and touting job‑creating benefits; Congress leader G. Kharge warns that the pact could trigger farmer protests similar to the 2021 backlash [13][15].

February 20 2026 – The U.S. Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs as exceeding emergency‑powers authority; Trump responds that the February 2 India‑U.S. deal remains unchanged, announces a 10 % global tariff under Section 122, and praises Modi while denouncing the Court as “ridiculous” [11][9].

February 20 2026 – Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says the interim India‑U.S. trade pact will be signed in March and become operational in April, with chief negotiators slated to meet Feb 23‑25 and USTR Jamieson Greer expected in March; India also joins the Pax Silica coalition for critical‑minerals supply‑chain resilience [12].

February 21 2026 – Trump raises the worldwide import tax to 15 % after the Court’s rebuke, defends the move as a necessary response, and signals that the administration will pursue “other alternatives” such as indirect tariff routes under Section 122 [8][9].

February 22 2026 – India and the United States postpone the three‑day chief‑negotiators meeting originally set for Feb 23, citing the need to assess recent policy shifts; the same day, Trump announces the global tariff rise to 15 % and lambasts the Supreme Court decision as “extraordinarily anti‑American” [6][7].

March 2026 (planned) – U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer travels to India to sign the interim trade agreement, completing the legal text that will enable India to lower its MFN tariffs on U.S. goods [12].

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