2003 – The United States launches the Iraq invasion, establishing a precedent for large‑scale ground operations that later analysts cite as a benchmark for the logistical challenges of any prolonged U.S. campaign against Iran [11].

Jan 2020 – The U.S. kills IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike, prompting Iran to issue advance warnings before retaliating against U.S. bases, a pattern that resurfaces after the June 2025 strikes [11].

2024 – The Assad regime collapses, leading to earlier U.S. base closures in al‑Tanf and al‑Shaddadi and shaping the decision to pull back forces from Syria in 2026 [5].

June 2025 – U.S. bunker‑buster strikes hit three Iranian enrichment sites, setting the nuclear program back roughly two years but not fully destroying the facilities [8].

June 21‑22 2025 – A coordinated U.S. air campaign (including B‑2 bombers) strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities; Iran then fires missiles at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, most of which are intercepted [15][12].

Jan 21, 2026 – President Trump threatens to wipe the Iranian regime off the face of the Earth in a NewsNation interview, while U.S. F‑15E jets land in Jordan and the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln sails toward the Persian Gulf; Patriot and THAAD systems are slated for deployment to protect regional assets [24].

Jan 23, 2026 – Trump announces an “armada” heading toward Iran and says the fleet may not be needed; the USS Abraham Lincoln and other warships are en route, and death‑toll estimates from the protests range from 3,117 (official) to over 4,500 (activists) [23].

Jan 23, 2026 – Iran’s top prosecutor rejects Trump’s claim that Tehran halted 837 executions, confirming the crackdown continues; U.S. warships, including the Lincoln, move closer to Iran as Trump warns of strikes if protesters are killed [22].

Jan 24, 2026 – IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour warns the U.S. and Israel that Iran’s forces have “finger on the trigger” as the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln traverses the Indian Ocean; European airlines cancel Dubai flights amid the heightened risk [29].

Jan 25, 2026 – Tehran unveils a giant anti‑U.S. mural in Enghelab Square depicting a blood‑stained carrier, coinciding with the carrier group’s approach; the IRGC repeats its “more ready than ever” warning while the U.K. sends Typhoon fighters to Qatar [28].

Jan 26, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group reaches the Indian Ocean, positioning thousands of service members near Iran; Trump says the ships are “just in case” and notes the protest death toll exceeds 5,500 according to activists [21].

Jan 26, 2026 – The carrier and three destroyers arrive in the Middle East, operating in the Indian Ocean; Trump frames the deployment as deterrence, while Iran’s protest death‑toll estimates vary between 3,117 (official) and nearly 6,000 (activists) [27].

Jan 27, 2026 – Tehran posts a blood‑stained billboard of the USS Abraham Lincoln with the warning “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind”; Khamenei shares an AI‑generated image of the carrier sinking, and the EU prepares sanctions on senior IRGC officials [20].

Jan 27, 2026 – A U.S. carrier group arrives near Iran as the crackdown leaves thousands dead; billboards in Revolution Square display threatening imagery, and Iran’s rial hits a record low of 1,500,000 per dollar [19].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump warns “time is running out” for a nuclear deal, urging Tehran to negotiate while the U.S. surges with at least 15 fighter jets in Jordan and a naval armada; Iran’s foreign ministry says its forces stand ready to respond, and human‑rights groups report over 6,300 deaths [18].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran’s advisor Ali Shamkhani warns that any U.S. attack will trigger “unprecedented” retaliation against the U.S., Israel, and supporters; Trump revives the strike threat and orders the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln armada, while Secretary of State Rubio notes up to 40,000 U.S. troops sit within Iranian missile range [17].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran announces deployment of 1,000 strategic drones as Trump’s “armada” moves toward the region; Tehran vows unprecedented retaliation against U.S. bases, and U.S. forces conduct readiness drills across CENTCOM [16].

Jan 30, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln moves into the Indian Ocean; Iran’s crackdown reaches its most severe level since 1979, and analysts note the regime may abandon its usual delayed retaliation, raising escalation risk [15].

Jan 30, 2026 – Protests claim thousands of deaths; U.S. warships and fighter jets enter the Gulf, while Iranians fear deeper economic hardship; the IRGC prepares for an all‑out response and diplomatic talks stall over U.S. demands [14].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump warns Tehran of an imminent attack as the carrier group nears Iran; Iran says its forces have “fingers on the trigger,” and regional states urge restraint, warning a limited strike could spark a broader war [13].

Jan 30, 2026 – The U.S. conducts a multiday combat‑power exercise in CENTCOM, deploying THAAD and Patriot batteries to Al Udeid, F‑35s, F‑22s, and tanker flights; Trump signals a “far worse” strike than June 2025 if Iran does not negotiate [12].

Jan 31, 2026 – Trump indicates a possible strike within 19 days, noting the recent naval buildup now includes a single carrier group; Iran’s armed forces remain weakened after Israel’s 12‑day campaign, narrowing U.S. options to precise or broader bombardments [11].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns that a U.S. attack would spark a regional war; the USS Abraham Lincoln operates in the Arabian Sea, and Iran’s foreign minister says trust in the U.S. is eroded but negotiations continue via regional intermediaries [9].

Feb 1, 2026 – Khamenei repeats the regional‑war warning; Trump offers two conditions—halt nuclear enrichment and stop killing protesters—to avoid U.S. action, while Iran prepares live‑fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz and the EU designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization [10].

Feb 3, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister is ordered to open U.S. negotiations, reversing years of refusal; Trump posts a “massive Armada” message on Truth Social, threatening a larger attack if Tehran does not comply [8].

Feb 18, 2026 – Analysts identify six indicators of imminent conflict, noting the U.S. carrier fleet expansion, Iran’s fortification of nuclear sites, live‑fire drills, and prediction‑market odds of a strike above 70 % by June 30 [7].

Feb 19, 2026 – The White House urges Iran to strike a deal, while the Navy positions the USS Abraham Lincoln near Iranian waters and plans to send the USS Gerald R Ford within three weeks, aiming for full regional presence by mid‑March [4].

Feb 19, 2026 – The U.S. deploys two carrier strike groups (Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R Ford) to the Gulf, bringing the fleet to 12 warships; Iran’s IRGC conducts maritime drills in Hormuz, and Trump repeats that a decision on a deal or strike will come within 10 days [2].

Feb 19, 2026 – Washington demands Iran halt enrichment, limit missile ranges, and improve citizen treatment; Iran views these as existential threats, and Supreme Leader Khamenei weighs a limited war over surrender while domestic unrest and sanctions strain the economy [3].

Feb 20, 2026 – Trump says he is “considering a limited military strike on Iran” and promises the world will know within “the next, probably, 10 days” whether a deal or action occurs; Iran prepares a draft agreement for U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, and the U.S. deploys the world’s largest carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, alongside the Abraham Lincoln [1].

Feb 20, 2026 – The Pentagon confirms the largest U.S. Middle‑East force in decades, adding the Gerald R Ford carrier group to the Abraham Lincoln group for a total of 14 vessels and over 10,700 service members, while experts warn even surgical strikes could trigger a regional war [26].