Dec 28, 2025 – Protests erupt across Iran after the rial collapses, sparking nationwide demonstrations that later face a violent crackdown; the unrest marks the start of a crisis that later results in thousands of deaths and mass arrests [20][15][13].

June 2025 – The United States conducts a 37‑hour B‑2 stealth bomber mission, striking three Iranian nuclear facilities, and later carries out airstrikes on the Fordow site, intensifying Tehran’s perception of an existential threat [2][9].

Late Dec 2025 – early Jan 2026 – Iranian security forces suppress the protests, killing thousands; Human Rights Activists News Agency reports over 5,000 deaths while Iranian officials claim 3,117, highlighting a disputed death toll that fuels international condemnation [13][15][20].

Jan 15‑16, 2026 – Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Egypt press Washington and Tehran to restrain, and the UN Security Council convenes to urge diplomatic resolution, while the U.S. begins moving the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group toward the Gulf, a transit expected to take five to seven days [6][6].

Jan 21, 2026 – Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publishes a Wall Street Journal op‑ed warning Iran will respond with overwhelming force if attacked, and the USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Strait of Malacca into the Indian Ocean, accompanied by F‑15E fighters and a HIMARS system repositioned for regional coverage [15][15].

Jan 21, 2026 – In a NewsNation interview, President Donald Trump threatens to “wipe the Iranian regime off the face of the Earth” if Tehran attacks, while U.S. F‑15E jets land in Jordan and additional Patriot and THAAD batteries are slated for deployment in the region [16][16].

Jan 23, 2026 – Trump declares an “armada” is heading toward Iran, saying the fleet may not need to be used, as the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other warships approach the Middle East; U.S. officials confirm the deployment and discuss possible air‑defense augmentations [14][13].

Jan 24, 2026 – IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour warns the United States and Israel that the Revolutionary Guard is “more ready than ever, finger on the trigger,” urging avoidance of miscalculation as U.S. warships move into the Indian Ocean; European airlines suspend Dubai flights amid the heightened risk [20][21].

Jan 25, 2026 – Tehran unveils a giant anti‑U.S. billboard in Enghelab Square depicting a blood‑stained USS Abraham Lincoln and the biblical warning “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” directly targeting the carrier’s deployment [19][11].

Jan 26, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group reaches the Indian Ocean, positioning thousands of U.S. service members near Iran for the first carrier presence in the area since the Gerald R. Ford’s October 2025 redeployment, while Iran cancels a planned two‑day live‑fire drill in the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating rhetoric [5][18][1].

Jan 27, 2026 – Tehran posts billboards in Revolution Square showing a damaged U.S. carrier and citizens voice fear that both U.S. threats and the Iranian regime endanger them; the U.S. confirms the carrier group is operating “just in case” and announces a multi‑day combat‑air‑power exercise across CENTCOM’s area of responsibility [11][12][3][4].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that a “massive Armada” led by the Abraham Lincoln is moving quickly, warning Iran of “far worse” attacks; the U.S. Air Forces Central announces undisclosed readiness drills, while Iran’s Assembly of Experts member Abbas Kaabi cautions of “unimaginable consequences” for any strike on Supreme Leader Khamenei [10][10].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran announces the fielding of 1,000 strategic drones across its armed forces, pledging “unprecedented” retaliation against U.S. assets such as Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base; the United States conducts a multi‑day combat‑air‑power exercise in the CENTCOM region to demonstrate readiness [9][9].

Jan 30, 2026 – U.S. Central Command confirms the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group operates in the Arabian Sea, joined by three guided‑missile destroyers, THAAD and Patriot batteries at Al Udeid, and additional assets including F‑35s, F‑15Es, and RC‑135 reconnaissance aircraft; a multiday combat‑power exercise begins, echoing the June 2025 B‑2 mission’s strategic intent [2][2][8].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns that any U.S. attack will trigger a regional war, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says trust in the United States has eroded but “fruitful” negotiations continue; the IRGC navy cancels its Strait of Hormuz live‑fire drill, and human‑rights groups caution the protest death toll could exceed 25,000, underscoring the volatile mix of military posturing and domestic unrest [1][7][1].