2025 – The Trump administration imposes sweeping tariffs on ≥10 % of imports from almost every country, adds new duties on nations trading with Iran, and faces a looming Supreme Court challenge that could overturn many of the measures [1].

2025 (first 11 months) – China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion for the first time as exports rise 5.7 % YoY, driven by Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa, while shipments to the United States plunge 18‑29 % and a diversification strategy offsets tariff pressure [6][7][11].

Oct 2025 – The United States and China reach a year‑long truce in South Korea; the U.S. lowers tariffs on Chinese goods and China pledges to halt export controls on rare‑earth minerals, easing but not ending trade tensions [7][11].

2025 – China posts a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, its first above $1 trillion, as high‑tech, green‑tech and AI‑related exports surge 13‑27 % while imports barely grow; exports to the United States fall about 20 % and the property sector remains in deep slump [2][3][4][5][8][9].

Dec 9 2025 – Premier Li Qiang tells IMF, World Bank and WTO officials that U.S. tariffs deliver a “severe blow” to the world economy, cites the $1 trillion‑plus surplus and urges “collaborative innovation” and freer trade [10].

Jan 4 2026 – Beijing rolls out the 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑30), doubling down on technological self‑reliance, whole‑chain manufacturing breakthroughs and export‑led growth while domestic demand stays weak; the PLA advances its modernization and early‑warning strike doctrine [12].

Jan 14 2026 – China confirms a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, notes a 19.5 % drop in U.S. shipments, highlights a 13 % rise in high‑tech exports and a 27 % jump in EV‑related goods, and flags the October truce and possible new Iran‑related duties as future tariff dynamics [5][9].

Jan 15 2026 – Analysts stress that the surplus reflects China’s pivot to emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, while warning that heavy reliance on external demand could mask domestic weakness [4].

Jan 19 2026 – China’s 2025 economy expands 5 % in line with its target; fourth‑quarter growth slows to 4.5 %, the record $1.2 trillion surplus cushions the slowdown, and Deutsche Bank projects 4.5 % growth for 2026 [8][2].

Feb 19 2026 – The United States records a $1.2 trillion trade deficit for 2025, imports hit a record $3.4 trillion fueled by AI‑related equipment, China‑U.S. trade drops 30 % to a two‑decade low, and Trump’s 2025 tariffs now cover nearly every trading partner as the Supreme Court case looms [1].

2026 (future) – The pending Supreme Court ruling on the 2025 tariffs could reshape U.S. trade policy; the IMF urges China to rebalance toward domestic consumption; and policymakers prepare the Central Economic Work Conference’s 2026‑2030 plan to sustain manufacturing strength while boosting internal demand [10][8][9].