2024 – The United States completes its withdrawal from the al‑Tanf garrison and the al‑Shaddadi base after the collapse of the Assad regime and a weakened Islamic State, marking a shift in Syrian security dynamics and reducing U.S. ground presence in the region [5].

June 2025 – The United States launches a B‑2 stealth‑bomber raid that bombs three Iranian nuclear facilities, demonstrating a willingness to use strategic airpower to curb Tehran’s nuclear program [10].

June 2025 – Israel conducts a 12‑day war against Iran, during which the United States again strikes three Iranian nuclear sites, underscoring coordinated U.S.–Israeli pressure on Tehran’s nuclear capabilities [24].

Jan 21, 2026 – President Donald Trump tells NewsNation that any Iranian attack “will be met with a response that would wipe the Iranian regime off the face of the Earth,” while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns that a U.S. attack “will be a regional war” [22][16].

Jan 21, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi publishes a Wall Street Journal op‑ed stating Tehran “will use everything it has” if attacked, warning that a broader conflict would be prolonged and destabilising [21].

Jan 23, 2026 – The Pentagon moves the largest U.S. naval and air‑force contingent in decades to the Middle East, adding two carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford) and over 10,700 service members to pressure Iran over its nuclear program [23].

Jan 25, 2026 – Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile batteries arrive at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, bolstering regional air‑defence against possible Iranian missile retaliation [10].

Jan 26, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group enters the Indian Ocean, positioning U.S. naval power nearer to Iran and signalling readiness for potential strikes [12].

Jan 26, 2026 – The Abraham Lincoln carrier and three guided‑missile destroyers reach the Middle East, marking the first U.S. carrier presence there since the carrier Gerald R. Ford left for the Caribbean in October 2025 [25].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that a “massive Armada” led by the Abraham Lincoln is moving “quickly toward Iran” and warns of “far worse” attacks if Tehran does not negotiate [20].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Air Forces Central announces a multi‑day combat‑air‑power exercise across its area of responsibility, though details remain classified, highlighting heightened readiness [20].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran declares it has fielded 1,000 strategic drones across its armed forces, while Trump announces the deployment of the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and warns of imminent military action [18].

Jan 29, 2026 – Former security council secretary Ali Shamkhani warns on X that any U.S. attack would trigger “unprecedented” retaliation against the United States, Israel and their supporters, calling a limited strike “an illusion” [19].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump warns that if Iran does not accept a deal, “the next attack will be far worse” than the June 2025 strike, as the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrives in the Arabian Sea with destroyers, F‑35Cs and other assets [10][30].

Jan 31, 2026 – Analysts note that Trump’s 19‑day window for a possible Iran strike narrows options to precise hits or a broader bombardment, while U.S. naval presence shifts from two carrier groups to a single group plus additional tracked assets [9].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells Tasnim that “if the Americans start a war this time, it will be a regional war,” emphasizing Tehran’s resolve amid the U.S. carrier Abraham Lincoln operating in the Arabian Sea [16][24].

Feb 1, 2026 – The United States deploys the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Arabian Sea, confirming a heightened naval presence as Trump threatens intervention over Iran’s nuclear program [6].

Feb 18, 2026 – Leaked briefings predict a “massive, week‑long campaign” against Iran; the U.S. adds the Gerald R. Ford carrier to the fleet, while satellite images show Iran fortifying nuclear sites with concrete and soil [15].

Feb 19, 2026 – The White House urges Iran to strike a deal, while the Navy positions the Abraham Lincoln near Iranian waters and plans to send the Gerald R. Ford within three weeks, with all forces expected in the region by mid‑March [4].

Feb 19, 2026 – U.S. officials convene a Situation Room briefing on Iran; the military readies for a possible weekend strike, though Trump has not given final authorization [8].

Feb 19, 2026 – The United States announces a large‑scale pullout of roughly 1,000 troops from Syria over the coming months, linking the drawdown to a transition toward Syrian‑led counter‑terrorism after years of involvement since 2015 [5].

Feb 20, 2026 – Trump tells reporters he is “considering a limited military strike on Iran” and says the world will know “within the next, probably, 10 days” whether a deal or action occurs, echoing past deadline tactics [1][2].

Feb 20, 2026 – The U.S. boosts its naval presence: the Gerald R. Ford carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, destroyers, combat ships and fighter jets operate in the region, while Iran reinforces military facilities and Supreme Leader Khamenei posts AI‑generated images of the Gerald R. Ford sinking [1].

Feb 22, 2026 – The United States completes its largest Middle‑East buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion, with the Gerald R. Ford shooting down a Shahed drone and the deployment of a second carrier strike group, while Iran retains a robust missile force and warns of “unimaginable consequences” if struck [14].