Current La Niña Keeps Southern Winter Dry The Climate Prediction Center still classifies the current ENSO state as La Niña, driving below‑average precipitation across the southern United States this winter [1][2][3]. Mid‑January observations show widespread drought and reduced soil moisture in Texas, Louisiana, and the Gulf Coast, hallmarks of a La Niña pattern [1][2]. NOAA notes that La Niña typically strengthens trade winds, pushing winter warmth northward and limiting rainfall in the South while favoring wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest [3].

Forecast Projects Gradual Transition to Weak El Niño by Late Summer The CPC’s June‑July ENSO outlook projects a slow decline of La Niña and a shift to a weak El Niño by the end of the 2026 summer [1][2]. The model ensemble shows the transition will be uneven, with some regions experiencing neutral conditions before the full El Niño signal consolidates [1]. Forecasters caution that no two El Niño events are identical, so regional impacts may vary despite the overall classification [1][2].

El Niño Likely Boosts Southern Rainfall While Northwest Stays Dry weak El Niño normally strengthens the subtropical jet, channeling more moisture into the Southwest and Gulf Coast during winter months [1][2]. Historical analogs, such as the 2014‑2015 event, showed measurable rainfall gains in southern cities when a weak El Niño emerged [1][2]. Conversely, the Northwest, Plains and Midwest are projected to remain drier and warmer as the jet shifts, delaying any drought relief in those areas [1][2]. The timing and intensity of these patterns could vary locally, leaving some southern locales still vulnerable to drought [2].

ENSO‑Neutral Expected Through Spring; Atmospheric River Threatens Pacific Northwest CPC data give a 75 % probability that the current La Niña will fade to ENSO‑neutral conditions between January and March, persisting through late spring [3]. With no strong ENSO signal, the jet stream will remain more variable, limiting any nationwide weather coherence [3]. Forecasters also warn of an atmospheric river set to deliver one to three inches of rain, strong winds, and snow to Washington, southeastern Alaska and British Columbia early next week [3].