Jan 21, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi publishes a Wall Street Journal op‑ed warning that Tehran will “use everything it has” if the United States attacks, contrasting the restraint shown in June 2025 and warning of a prolonged, destabilising conflict; the U.S. carrier group USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Strait of Malacca westward, while F‑15E fighters and a HIMARS system reposition in the region, and Iran claims a drone‑missile strike on a Kurdish base near Irbil [23].

Jan 23, 2026 – President Donald Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One that “we have an armada…maybe we won’t have to use it,” as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group moves toward the Gulf; the United Nations Security Council convenes to urge restraint, while Iran’s top prosecutor rejects Trump’s claim that Tehran halted 837 executions [22][21][26].

Jan 24, 2026 – IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour warns the United States and Israel that the Revolutionary Guard is “more ready than ever, finger on the trigger,” as Trump announces a “massive fleet” including the Abraham Lincoln heading into the Indian Ocean; European airlines cancel or delay Dubai flights amid the heightened tension [29].

Jan 25, 2026 – Tehran unveils a giant billboard in Enghelab Square depicting a blood‑stained USS Abraham Lincoln with the caption “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind,” while the carrier group sails toward the Middle East and the IRGC reiterates its “finger on the trigger” posture; death‑toll figures from the December protests diverge sharply, with HRANA reporting over 5,800 deaths [28].

Jan 26, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group reaches the Indian Ocean, operating outside the Arabian Sea but adding thousands of service members to the theater; Trump says the ships are sent “just in case” and stresses that a strike would dwarf the June 2025 attacks on Iranian nuclear sites [27].

Jan 27, 2026 – Trump repeats on Axios that “we have a big armada next to Iran, bigger than Venezuela,” as the Abraham Lincoln carrier group arrives in the CENTCOM area; Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posts an AI‑generated image of the carrier at the ocean floor, warning that U.S. weapons are “more dangerous” [19][18].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that a “massive Armada” headed by the Abraham Lincoln is “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” while U.S. CENTCOM announces undisclosed multi‑day air drills; Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi rejects U.S. overtures, and Tehran vows “unprecedented” retaliation against U.S. bases such as Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base [15][16][14].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran announces the deployment of 1,000 strategic drones across its armed forces, pledging “unprecedented” retaliation against U.S. assets, as the United States moves an “armada” of warships—including the Abraham Lincoln—toward the region and conducts readiness drills across CENTCOM [14].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump warns Tehran that “time is running out” and threatens a “far worse” strike than the summer 2025 attacks; the USS Abraham Lincoln moves within striking distance of Iran, Iran signals its forces have “fingers on the trigger,” and analysts caution that even a limited U.S. strike could trigger an all‑out regional war [13][12][11].

Jan 31, 2026 – Trump’s options narrow to a precise strike on IRGC leaders or a broader bombardment of nuclear sites, as the U.S. naval presence shifts to a single carrier group after a June 2025 operation weakened Iran’s missile stockpiles; political constraints and the lack of a large ground force limit a prolonged conflict [11].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns, “if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war,” emphasizing Tehran’s resolve despite U.S. naval moves; the USS Abraham Lincoln operates in the Arabian Sea, while Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says trust in the U.S. is eroded but “fruitful” negotiations continue via regional intermediaries [9][10].

Feb 16, 2026 – The U.S. Navy confirms the USS Gerald R Ford’s AIS signal heading toward the Mediterranean and the USS Abraham Lincoln positioned 700 km off Oman, expanding the regional fleet to 12 warships and enabling an estimated 800 daily sorties to counter Iranian responses [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Leaked briefings predict a “massive, week‑long campaign” rather than a precision strike, noting the deployment of the Gerald R Ford and Abraham Lincoln carrier groups, Iran’s fortification of Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, live‑fire drills that closed the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the 1980s, and prediction‑market odds of a U.S. or Israeli strike by June 30 at roughly 71 % [8].

Feb 19, 2026 – The United States deploys two carrier strike groups to the Gulf, with the Abraham Lincoln near Iranian waters and the Gerald R Ford transiting the Strait of Gibraltar; Washington demands Tehran halt uranium enrichment, limit missile ranges, cease support for armed groups, and improve citizen treatment, while Iran frames these demands as existential threats and Supreme Leader Khamenei weighs a limited war over surrender [3].

Feb 19, 2026 – White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt urges Iran to “be very wise” and strike a deal with Trump, as the Abraham Lincoln carrier moves closer and the Gerald R Ford is slated to arrive within three weeks; Geneva talks produce limited progress on “guiding principles,” and Khamenei shares an AI image of the carrier sinking, calling U.S. weapons “more dangerous” [4].

Feb 19, 2026 – The Pentagon announces a large‑scale pullout of roughly 1,000 U.S. troops from Syria over the coming months, while the Abraham Lincoln carrier group operates near Iran and the Gerald R Ford is expected in the Middle East within three weeks; Trump signals a possible strike as early as Saturday, though no final decision is made [5].

Feb 19, 2026 – The United States amasses additional hardware near Iran, moving the Gerald R Ford carrier strike group into the Mediterranean and the Abraham Lincoln into the Arabian Sea, landing 18 F‑35s and several E/A‑18 Growlers in Jordan, and stationing E‑3 Sentries and refuelers at Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base; satellite images show Iran reinforcing nuclear facilities with concrete and soil piles [6].

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran and Russia conduct joint naval drills off southern Iran, simulating a hijacked‑ship rescue and briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. carriers are positioned nearby, diplomatic talks in Geneva stall, and Khamenei warns that any U.S. force could be “crippled” while Russian officials caution that escalation “plays with fire” [7].

Feb 20, 2026 – President Trump tells reporters he is “considering a limited military strike on Iran” and says the world will know “within the next, probably, 10 days” whether a deal or action occurs; Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran prepares a draft agreement for U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, while the U.S. deploys the world’s largest carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, alongside the Abraham Lincoln, amid rising domestic political pressure on Trump [1].