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Iran’s Supreme Leader Warns U.S. of War While Protester Soltani Released on Bail

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Economic Collapse Ignites Nationwide Protests The rial fell to a record 1.42 million per dollar in late December, sparking anti‑government demonstrations that spread across Iran in early January, with activists estimating over 6,000 protesters killed and thousands more arrested[4][1].

Security Forces Deploy Deadliest Crackdown Since 1979 Revolutionary Guard and Basij units used tear gas, pellet guns, and paintball‑type projectiles; internet services were shut down for weeks, forcing activists to rely on Starlink satellite links, while hospitals reported mass casualties and seizure of wards[4][1].

Khamenei Issues Direct Threat to U.S. Military Action The 86‑year‑old Supreme Leader warned President Donald Trump that an American strike would trigger a regional war, even as Iran re‑entered nuclear negotiations under pressure from Turkey, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE[1][1].

Erfan Soltani’s Arrest, Death‑Sentence Rumors, and Bail Release The 26‑year‑old clothing‑shop owner was detained on 8 January in Fardis on charges of “assembly and collusion” and “propaganda”; initial reports claimed a rapid death sentence, which the judiciary later denied, and he was freed on bail of two billion tomans after international advocacy[3][2].

U.S. and Iranian Leaders Exchange Threats and Assurances President Trump said he had “good authority” that Tehran would not execute Soltani and warned of “very strong action” if executions continued, while Khamenei accused the United States of encouraging the protests and promised retaliation against any attack[2][3].

Sources

Timeline

Dec 31, 2025 – Protests ignite in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over a plunging rial and spread to Karaj, Hamedan, Qeshm, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz and Yazd, marking the largest unrest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising; police deploy tear‑gas and slogans such as “death to the dictator” echo across cities, while the UN reinstates nuclear‑program sanctions and President Masoud Pezeshkian signals willingness to dialogue with demonstrators [25].

Jan 2, 2026 – At least seven people are killed as demonstrations move into rural provinces, including three deaths in Azna and a Basij volunteer slain in Kouhdasht; the rial trades near 1.4 million per USD, and the government declares a limited public holiday while hinting at talks with protesters [24].

Jan 4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares “rioters must be put in their place,” separating them from legitimate protesters and blaming foreign powers for the crisis; the death toll rises to 15 as clashes hit over 170 locations, and Iran announces it has stopped uranium enrichment to signal openness to nuclear negotiations [30].

Jan 5, 2026 – Protests expand to 26 provinces, with HRANA confirming 19 dead and 51 injured; President Donald Trump warns Iran will be “hit very hard” if killings continue, while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf urges the regime to heed grievances and warns against foreign interference [23]; simultaneously, HRANA reports 19 civilians killed and 1 security member dead in the second week, and Trump repeats his threat of strong action [22].

Jan 6, 2026 – Khamenei signals approval for a hard crackdown, stating “rioters must be put in their place,” and intelligence reports reveal a contingency plan to evacuate him and ~20 aides to Moscow if unrest spirals; Trump warns Iran it will be “hit very hard” and cites the regime’s “very strong options,” while severe economic hardship and a water crisis fuel the protests [21].

Jan 8, 2026 – Violence spreads to 111 cities and towns across all 31 provinces; HRANA counts 34 protesters and 4 security personnel killed, two police officers die in Lordegan, and the government announces a new monthly cash allowance to ease the cost of living, while analysts note the unrest is the broadest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests [20].

Jan 9, 2026 – Authorities impose a nationwide internet blackout affecting ~85 million people, cutting international calls and online access as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urges Iranians to demonstrate; protests erupt in over 100 cities, with markets closing and chants for the exiled prince heard nationwide; Khamenei later frames the demonstrations as “trying to please Donald Trump,” reinforcing the regime’s narrative of foreign‑backed agitation [18, 19, 28, 29].

Jan 10, 2026 – The anti‑government movement reaches its two‑week mark, with HRANA tallying 72 dead and 2,300 arrested; state television claims control while Khamenei signals a tougher stance and the attorney general warns that protesters face the death penalty as “enemies of God”; Trump publicly offers support for the demonstrators, and several airlines suspend flights to Iran amid security concerns [27].

Jan 11, 2026 – Activists report the death toll climbing to 544 (496 protesters, 48 security forces) and detentions exceeding 10,600; Parliament Speaker Qalibaf warns Iran will target U.S. bases if attacked, prompting Trump to vow an unprecedented strike in retaliation; Pope Leo XIV calls for dialogue and the UN Secretary‑General expresses shock, urging maximum restraint and restoration of communications [26]; meanwhile HRANA notes 78 deaths, 185 cities affected, and a 48‑hour internet outage, while U.S. leaders pledge continued backing for the protesters [16]; Iran’s parliament also warns U.S. and Israeli forces would be legitimate targets if struck [15].

Jan 12, 2026 – Security forces open fire with Kalashnikov‑style rifles in multiple southern cities, while protests swell after Reza Pahlavi’s call, drawing thousands of participants; Khamenei vows the regime “will not back down,” and authorities blame the United States and Israel for fomenting the unrest; hospitals are overwhelmed with gun and pellet‑gun injuries, and HRANA records nearly 500 protesters and 48 security personnel killed across 186 cities [13, 14].

Jan 13, 2026 – A currency collapse triggers nationwide protests that surpass 2,000 deaths; Trump threatens military strikes and imposes 25 % tariffs on countries trading with Iran, while exiled Crown Prince Pahlavi outlines a 100‑day interim plan for a transitional government following the 2025 Israeli strikes on Iranian targets [12, 17]; a Canadian woman posts a video burning Khamenei’s portrait, and author J.K. Rowling publicly supports the demonstrators, highlighting the movement’s cultural resonance [12].

Jan 14, 2026 – HRANA reports the death toll exceeds 2,500 (2,571 confirmed) with 2,403 protesters killed; state TV for the first time acknowledges “martyrs,” and graffiti calling for Khamenei’s death appears in Tehran; Trump claims killings are “stopping” and that there is no plan for executions, while Iran signals fast‑track trials and possible executions for detained protesters, prompting U.S. personnel evacuations from a Qatar base [10, 8]; BBC Persian notes uncertainty over the execution of protester Erfan Soltani, and HRANA’s tally reaches 2,571 deaths, underscoring divergent casualty figures [9].

Jan 15, 2026 – (No specific events reported in the source material.)

Jan 16, 2026 – Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urges the international community to back the Iranian protests, calls for a “surgical strike” on IRGC leadership, presses for economic pressure, expulsion of Iranian diplomats, release of political prisoners, and deployment of satellite internet to bypass the blackout; HRANA estimates over 2,600 killed and 19,000 arrested, while Pahlavi pledges to return and proposes a new constitution separating religion from state [5].

Jan 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledges that “thousands” have been killed in the protests, describing some deaths as “inhuman and savage” and blaming the United States; HRANA’s estimate rises to about 3,090 deaths with internet connectivity reduced to roughly 2 % of normal levels; Trump urges continued protests and threatens military action, while the U.S. withdraws some personnel from Qatar’s Al‑Udeid base as a precaution [4].

Jan 18, 2026 – Khamenei brands Trump a “criminal” and accuses the United States of backing the demonstrators, while the crackdown toll reaches 3,308 according to rights groups; Trump calls for regime change, labeling Khamenei a “sick man,” yet the day before he appears conciliatory about reported cancellations of mass hangings [7].

Jan 23, 2026 – Security forces tear‑gas, line up, and fire birdshot on crowds in Isfahan, leaving streets blood‑stained; Khamenei vows a relentless crackdown and the Revolutionary Guard texts citizens to avoid gatherings, labeling protesters “terrorist mercenaries”; protests continue at night in smaller groups, hospitals treat hundreds of eye‑injury patients, and HRANA logs thousands of deaths despite official under‑reporting [3].

Jan 27, 2026 – The case of 26‑year‑old protester Erfan Soltani draws international attention: he was arrested on 8 January and reportedly faced a death sentence within days, but the judiciary later denies capital charges, claiming only security‑related prison terms; Kurdish rights group Hengaw says the execution was postponed, not cancelled, and his family receives his belongings [1].

Jan 28, 2026 – Anti‑government protests that began on 28 December over worsening economics evolve into one of the deadliest crackdowns in Iran’s history; HRANA verifies 6,159 killings (including 5,804 protesters) and continues probing 17,000 reported deaths, while security forces use live fire on 8‑9 January and force families to pay ≈ 1 billion tomans for bodies or reclassify the dead as Basij martyrs; a near‑total internet and phone blackout hampers information flow [2].

Feb 1, 2026 – Erfan Soltani is released on bail after posting a 2 billion‑toman (≈ $12,600) bond; his lawyer confirms the return of his cellphone and belongings, while the judiciary maintains that he faces only prison terms, not a death sentence, and Hengaw reiterates that the execution was merely postponed [1].

Feb 4, 2026 – Khamenei warns that a U.S. strike would trigger a regional war while allowing Iran back into nuclear negotiations, reversing his earlier refusal; he reiterates that “rioters must be put in their place,” authorizing harsh repression that activists estimate has caused > 6,700 deaths (officials cite 3,117); the Revolutionary Guard remains his dominant power base, a council of Shiite clerics prepares to select his successor, and regional mediators arrange nuclear talks despite U.S. demands for a halt to enrichment [6].

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