Oct 30, 2025 – President Trump and President Xi meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, securing concessions that lower bilateral tensions and set the stage for later diplomatic overtures [7].

Dec 5, 2025 – The U.S. releases its 33‑page National Security Strategy, framing China chiefly as an economic rival, limiting China mentions to a single paragraph, and expanding focus on Taiwan’s semiconductor role [2].

Dec 2025 – Washington announces an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan—including rocket launchers, howitzers and missiles—prompting Beijing to condemn the sale as support for “Taiwan’s independence” [1].

Dec 8, 2025 – China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterates that Taiwan is a core red line, urging the United States to stop “conniving with” independence forces while offering “win‑win” cooperation on other issues [7].

Dec 10, 2025 – Germany’s Federal Foreign Office, during Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul’s Beijing visit, issues a statement warning against any escalation in the Taiwan Strait and linking Asian stability to European prosperity [6].

Dec 11, 2025 – The Trump administration’s NSS emphasizes “rebalancing” U.S.–China economic ties, drops all human‑rights language, and receives a positive reaction from Beijing’s spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who praises the “mutual respect” tone [2].

Dec 19, 2025 – A bipartisan group of U.S. House members files a resolution condemning China’s coercive actions toward Japan and reaffirming the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo‑Pacific and to its allies [12].

Dec 29, 2025 – Beijing issues a red‑line warning to the United States as Chinese war games circle Taiwan, marking a notable escalation in cross‑strait tensions [5].

Jan 2, 2026 – President Trump invites Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the United States for a spring visit, the first such trip since she took office, as Washington seeks to deepen the U.S.–Japan alliance amid strained Japan‑China ties [9].

Early Jan 2026 – China conducts two‑day military drills in the waters off Taiwan, a move linked to the U.S. announcement of a new $11 billion arms package for the island and heightening regional pressure [9].

Feb 4, 2026 – In a wide‑ranging phone call, President Xi warns President Trump to exercise “extreme caution” on any Taiwan weapons transfers, labeling Taiwan the “most important issue” in bilateral relations [3].

Feb 4, 2026 – The leaders also discuss Iran, with Trump announcing a 25 % import tax on countries doing business with Tehran and noting a forthcoming high‑level Iran‑U.S. dialogue in Oman scheduled for Friday [8].

Feb 4, 2026 – Trump unveils a $10 billion arms package for Taiwan that includes medium‑range missiles, howitzers and drones, prompting Beijing to reiterate that “Taiwan will never be allowed to separate from China” [8].

Feb 4, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that the call is “long and thorough,” praises the relationship with Xi as “extremely good,” and highlights trade topics such as U.S. oil and gas sales, a potential rise in Chinese soybean imports to 20 million tons, and additional aircraft deliveries [11].

Feb 4, 2026 – The New START nuclear arms‑control treaty is set to expire on Thursday (Feb 6), leading Trump to argue that any future agreement should involve China [3].

Feb 5, 2026 – Xi reiterates that Taiwan is China’s territory and urges the United States to handle all weapons supplies to the island “with prudence,” while Trump calls the conversation “excellent” and says he looks forward to his April trip to Beijing [1].

Feb 5, 2026 – Trump notes that Beijing is considering raising U.S. soybean purchases from 12 million to 20 million tons and affirms his intent to travel to China in April for a summit that could also open talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong‑un [1][11].

Feb 9, 2026 – The United States and Iran hold high‑level talks in Oman, shifted from Turkey at Iran’s request, as part of Trump’s broader strategy to isolate Tehran while managing regional fallout [8].

Spring 2026 (planned) – Prime Minister Takaichi and President Trump coordinate a U.S. visit for the Japanese leader, aiming to cement a “new chapter” in the alliance and align with the cherry‑blossom festival [9][10].

Apr 2026 (planned) – President Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a face‑to‑face summit with Xi, expected to address trade, Taiwan, and broader strategic issues and to potentially pave the way for a U.S.–North Korea dialogue [1][3][7][8].

2027 (planned) – Japan commits to raising its defense spending to 2 % of GDP by 2027 as part of a broader modernization effort and deeper security cooperation with the United States [4].

Ongoing (2025‑2026) – China expands its military reach with hypersonic and anti‑ship missiles, fortifies artificial islands in the South China Sea, and continues diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, shaping U.S. strategic calculations in the Indo‑Pacific [4].