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Ukraine Gains Ground While Kremlin Prepares Reserve Callups and Expands Space‑Intel

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  • A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    Image: Newsweek
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months. Source Full size
  • Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia (BBC) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
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  • Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine.
    Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine.
    Image: Newsweek
    Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine. Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia (BBC) Source Full size
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    Image: BBC
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  • Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia
    Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia Source Full size
  • "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects
    "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects
    Image: BBC
    "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract
    Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe
    One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe
    Image: BBC
    One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months.
    Image: Newsweek
    A Ukrainian soldier with the nickname Dragon shows the fatigue of months of fighting without a break, as the rest of the tank crew make adjustments to a captured Russian T-72B tank, as they drive it toward the northeastern Kharkiv region frontline on a road to Izyum, Ukraine, on September 28, 2022. The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have captured more Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and other military systems than they lost while launching a counter-offensive that in September recaptured more than 3,000 square miles of territory occupied by Russian troops for more than six months. Source Full size
  • Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine.
    Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine.
    Image: Newsweek
    Servicemen of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade are firing the 2S22 “Bogdana” at Russian military positions on August 20, 2025 in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine. Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
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  • Des grandes tentes reliées à des systèmes autonomes d’électricité et de chauffage installées en janvier par les services d’urgence de l’État ukrainien pour les habitants de la cité-dortoir de Troïechtchyna (Ukraine), le 12 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Des grandes tentes reliées à des systèmes autonomes d’électricité et de chauffage installées en janvier par les services d’urgence de l’État ukrainien pour les habitants de la cité-dortoir de Troïechtchyna (Ukraine), le 12 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Image: Le Monde
    Des grandes tentes reliées à des systèmes autonomes d’électricité et de chauffage installées en janvier par les services d’urgence de l’État ukrainien pour les habitants de la cité-dortoir de Troïechtchyna (Ukraine), le 12 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE» (VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE») Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Image: Le Monde
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE» (VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE») Source Full size

Ukrainian Forces Reclaim Over 400 km² and Eight Settlements Since late January 2026 Ukrainian troops have retaken roughly 400 km² of territory along the southern front, including eight villages such as Ternuvate and settlements near Verbove, as confirmed by commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s Telegram post and ISW’s open‑source mapping [1][6][10]. The Institute for the Study of War records Russia’s net gain in 2026 at only 572 km² and 19 settlements, underscoring a contested front [6]. Ukrainian strikes also hit deep Russian targets, destroying an ammunition depot in Maksimovka (Belgorod) and a refinery warehouse in Krasnodar [3].

Kremlin Frames Defender of the Fatherland Day as Mobilization Call President Vladimir Putin’s Feb 23 speech linked soldiers’ “enormous responsibility” to the nation and signaled preparation for limited, rolling involuntary reserve call‑ups, a narrative reinforced by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev appearing in uniform and promising care for mobilized families [1][3]. Putin’s meeting with widows of fallen servicemembers emphasized continued assistance while hinting at possible benefit curtailments to fund future drafts [1]. The Kremlin’s domestic propaganda machine has amplified this sacrifice theme ahead of the 2026 Duma elections [3].

Drones Dominate Combat, Delivering Majority of Ukrainian Strikes President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters that drones now account for about 80 % of Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions, most produced domestically to sustain the war effort [2]. Russia responded with a massive Shahed‑type drone barrage on Feb 19‑20, launching 128 drones (≈80 % Shahed) that struck civilian infrastructure across five oblasts [3]. Ukrainian forces also employed FP‑5 cruise missiles to hit the Votkinsk missile plant and Neftegorsk gas facility deep inside Russia [10]. Analysts note that drone‑enabled strike ranges now extend up to 50 km from the front, reshaping infantry tactics [9].

Russia Boosts Space‑Based Intelligence and Tightens Internet Controls The Financial Times reported that Luch‑1 and Luch‑2 satellites have begun intercepting communications of at least a dozen European military satellites, expanding Russia’s ability to gather and potentially jam NATO data links [1]. On Feb 20 the Kremlin signed a decree authorising the FSB to block Telegram and other messaging services nationwide, removing “emerging security threat” language and broadening censorship powers [10]. Pro‑Ukrainian hackers revealed that Russian drones rely on Belarusian cellular towers for navigation, enabling routes that previously crossed Polish NATO airspace [10].

Civilian Toll Remains High Amid Resilient Humanitarian Response The UN has verified over 15,000 civilian deaths, with 40,600 injuries and a 31 % rise in civilian fatalities in 2025 alone; actual numbers are likely higher due to limited access in occupied areas [7][9]. Le Monde estimates direct war damage at $195 billion and a reconstruction need of $588 billion through 2035, while The Hindu notes the World Bank’s similar $588 billion projection for 2026‑2036 [4][5]. Despite massive infrastructure strikes, the winter of 2025‑2026 passed without water, electricity or heating‑related fatalities, reflecting effective civilian governance and international aid [5].

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Timeline

Feb 24 2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the start of Europe’s deadliest war since World II and setting a conflict that will last over four years [5][13][16].

June 2024 – Ukraine conducts the “Spiderweb” operation, using truck‑mounted drones to strike Russian bomber bases deep inside occupied territory, demonstrating a new capability for long‑range attacks [14].

2024 – The daring “Koursk” raid hits Russian missile‑production facilities, boosting Ukrainian morale and proving the feasibility of deep strikes on Russian soil [22].

2025 – CSIS estimates roughly 1.2 million Russian casualties (including 275‑325 k deaths), a loss rate unseen for a major power since World II [6].

2025 – The UN records 2,514 civilian deaths in Ukraine, a 31 % rise over 2024, with the deadliest single strike in Ternopil on Nov 19 killing 38 civilians, including eight children [3][7].

2025 – BBC‑verified battlefield deaths in Russia reach nearly 160,000, likely undercounting a total of 243‑352 k fatalities [4].

Dec 2025 – Kyiv claims 35,000 Russian troops were killed in December alone, underscoring the intensity of fighting on the eastern front [5].

June 11 2025 – Anti‑Putin activist Murat Mukashev dies fighting in the Kharkiv region after joining the army, citing promises of release tied to U.S. peace talks [4].

2025 – Volunteers account for about one‑third of Russian battlefield deaths, reflecting a shift away from conscript‑only recruitment [4].

Dec 2025 – The United States unveils a 28‑point peace proposal, prompting a surge in Russian obituaries and heightened diplomatic activity [4].

Dec 2025 – Former President Donald Trump declares that Russia “has the upper hand” and that “size will win,” while U.S. officials warn there is no major battlefield shift [8][6].

Jan 13 2026 – The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission confirms 2,514 civilian deaths in 2025, confirming it as the deadliest year since the war began [3].

Jan 28 2026 – CSIS updates its estimate to 1.2 million Russian casualties, reinforcing the war’s staggering human cost [6].

Jan 28 2026 – The Financial Times reports the U.S. ties additional weapons to Ukraine’s cession of all Donetsk, a demand ISW warns would delay Russian advances [20].

Feb 17 2026 – Ukrainian forces recapture 201 sq km in five days, the fastest advance in 2½ years, just before the scheduled Geneva peace talks [11].

Feb 20 2026 – President Vladimir Putin signs a decree allowing the FSB to block Telegram and other services, tightening internet control amid the war [18].

Feb 20 2026 – President Volodymyr Zelensky announces Ukraine has liberated roughly 300 sq km in the south, citing recent disruptions to Russian Starlink use [18].

Feb 21 2026 – General Oleksandr Syrsky states Russian casualties now exceed new recruits, describing the phase as “extremely difficult” for Ukraine [22].

Feb 22 2026 – Russia expands space‑based intelligence, with Luch‑1/2 satellites jamming European military links, while Ukrainian FP‑5 missiles strike the Votkinsk ICBM plant and Neftegorsk gas facility [18].

Feb 23 2026 – In Yelets, a recruitment billboard offers a £15,000 bounty for new soldiers, VAT rises to 22 %, and concrete shelters are installed as Ukrainian drones strike Russian regions [1].

Feb 24 2026 – President Zelensky notes drones now deliver 80 % of Ukrainian strikes, while Russia controls just under 20 % of Ukraine after four years of attritional fighting [9].

Feb 24 2026 – Ukrainian airborne units recapture eight settlements and 400 sq km since late January, marking a rare front‑line gain [10].

Feb 24 2026 – Kremlin spokesperson Col‑Gen Rudskoy claims Russia seized 900 km² in 2026, but ISW verifies only 19 settlements and 572 km², exposing a propaganda gap [19].

Feb 24 2026 – Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, in uniform, tells troops “the price of victory matters” and promises care for soldiers, signaling preparation for rolling reserve call‑ups [17].

Feb 24 2026 – Russia launches a massive strike of 126 drones and an Iskander‑M missile on Feb 22‑23, hitting civilian infrastructure across five oblasts [17].

Feb 24 2026 – Humanitarian agencies report the situation remains under control despite $195 billion war damage, with no winter‑related civilian deaths recorded [21].

Feb 24 2026 – U.S.‑brokered Geneva talks begin, with Russia demanding retention of large parts of Donetsk and Ukraine refusing any territorial concession [11].

Feb 24 2026 – The United States pushes for Donetsk concessions as part of security guarantees, a stance ISW warns will undermine Ukraine’s defense [20].

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