July 30, 2025 – President Donald Trump announces a 25% tariff on Indian imports effective Aug 1, tying it to India’s purchases of Russian oil and framing it as a geopolitical penalty, the first major U.S. trade sanction on India in his second term [11].

Aug 27, 2025 – The Trump administration expands the tariff on Indian goods to 50% via an executive order, reinstating the penalty after a brief suspension and intensifying pressure on India amid stalled trade talks [11].

Nov 21, 2025 – India’s Union Government notifies all four Labour Codes, consolidating 13 central labour statutes into unified wage, bonus, safety and social‑security rules that will become fully operational on Apr 1, 2026, marking a major regulatory overhaul for employers and workers [11].

Dec 16, 2025 – Parliament passes a bill raising the foreign‑direct investment cap in the insurance sector from 74% to 100%; the finance minister says the change will attract capital, technology and better products, deepening foreign participation in a strategic industry [11].

Dec 24, 2025 – India’s 2025 business year sees GST reforms that cut slabs to 5% and 18%, record‑high GST revenue of ₹2.37 lakh crore, and four RBI rate cuts totalling 125 bps to 5.25%, while the Digital Personal Data Protection Act is partially notified, reflecting a broad policy drive to boost growth and data privacy [11].

Dec 25, 2025 – New Delhi enters 2025 with high diplomatic expectations, planning bilateral visits and multilateral engagements, but U.S. tariffs on Indian labour‑intensive goods and a 25% surcharge on Russian oil imports erode trust and complicate the anticipated reset of India‑U.S. ties [10].

Jan 5, 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that U.S. tariff receipts will exceed $600 billion, claiming the levies make America “financially stronger” and bolster national security ahead of a Supreme Court‑related tariff decision [9].

Jan 6, 2026 – Speaking at a GOP retreat, Trump says Prime Minister Modi is “not that happy with me” over the 50% tariffs tied to Russian oil purchases, recounts Modi’s request for a private meeting, and announces a change to the pending delivery of 68 Apache helicopters, highlighting personal rapport amid policy friction [8].

Feb 1, 2026 – India’s Union budget omits any allocation for the Chabahar port project, suggesting a pause in the Iran‑linked initiative as the United States threatens 25% tariffs on firms doing business with Iran, echoing earlier pressure that led India to curtail Iranian oil purchases in 2019 [5].

Feb 2, 2026 – President Trump uses Truth Social to announce a surprise India‑U.S. trade deal that cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% (or 50% combined) to 18% and removes the 25% penalty linked to Russian oil, contingent on India halting Russian crude imports and pledging $500 billion of U.S. purchases, framing the move as a win for American workers and a step toward ending the Ukraine war [2][1].

Feb 2, 2026 – Prime Minister Modi posts on X that he is “delighted” Indian products will face an 18% tariff and thanks President Trump on behalf of 1.4 billion Indians, while downplaying the Russian‑oil clause, positioning the deal as a boost for exporters [2][7].

Feb 2, 2026 – Newly appointed U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor teases the announcement with a “STAY TUNED…” post, indicating direct high‑level coordination behind the tariff cut [2].

Feb 2, 2026 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent notes that India’s purchases of Russian oil have “collapsed,” linking the tariff relief to a strategy of choking Kremlin revenue and supporting Ukraine [2].

Feb 2, 2026 – The European Union and India sign a free‑trade pact a week earlier, expected to double EU exports to India by 2032, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling it “the mother of all deals,” a development that likely spurs Washington’s swift action [1].

Feb 2, 2026 – External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar arrives in Washington for a three‑day visit that includes a Critical Minerals Ministerial chaired by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, where a non‑binding document on supply‑chain resilience is expected to be signed, linking the trade deal to broader clean‑energy cooperation [7].

Feb 2, 2026 – Trump claims the tariff cut will help end the Ukraine war, stating “thousands are dying each week,” and ties the reduction to global peace, stability and prosperity in a Truth Social post [3].

Feb 3, 2026 – The United States formally lowers the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18% after the Feb 2 phone call, with the change effective immediately, while details of the broader agreement—including market‑access for soybeans and dairy—remain undisclosed, prompting industry uncertainty [5][4].

Feb 3, 2026 – Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar hails the deal as a “growth catalyst,” saying it will create jobs, spur innovation and strengthen “Make in India,” while Home Minister Amit Shah calls the day “historic” for bilateral relations, reflecting high‑level political endorsement [4].

Feb 3, 2026 – Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw emphasizes the democratic alliance, noting the United States and India can co‑create technologies and benefit citizens, framing the trade pact as a partnership of the world’s two largest democracies [4].

Feb 3, 2026 – The “We Pay the Tariffs” coalition of 800 U.S. small firms warns the new 18% rate is six times higher than the pre‑Trump average of 2.5%, labeling the deal a “tax hike” that could hurt small‑business competitiveness [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Diamond and jewellery industry leaders celebrate the tariff cut, with GJEPC Chairman Kirit Bhansali saying it provides “immense relief” and will give “zero duty imports” for loose diamonds and coloured gemstones, anticipating a sector‑wide boost [6].

Feb 3, 2026 – Indian equity markets rally, with the Nifty 50 opening at 26,308.05 (+4.86%) and the BSE Sensex at 85,323.20 (+4.48%); gems, textiles and leather stocks jump 15‑20%, reflecting investor optimism about the trade deal’s impact on exports [6].

Feb 3, 2026 – The rupee’s one‑month non‑deliverable forward rate tightens to the 90.15‑90.25 range versus the dollar, tighter than the prior 91.5125 close, as foreign inflows are expected to return following the tariff reduction [6].

Feb 3, 2026 – Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accuses Prime Minister Modi of “capitulating finally,” criticizing the deal as leveraging U.S. pressure over Russian oil and questioning its merit, highlighting domestic political backlash in India [4].

Future (expected) – The Critical Minerals Ministerial is slated to sign a non‑binding document on supply‑chain resilience and clean‑energy cooperation during Jaishankar’s Washington visit, setting the stage for deeper strategic collaboration beyond the tariff cut [7].