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Trump Raises Global Tariff to 15% After Supreme Court Blocks Emergency‑Power Duties

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Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariff Authority In a 6‑3 ruling the Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president power to levy import taxes, affirming that only Congress may impose tariffs [1][2][9][18]. The decision nullified the sweeping 2025 “day of liberation” duties and the emergency‑powers tariffs imposed last year [19][20]. Justices emphasized the constitutional taxing power of Congress, citing historic precedents from Chief Justice Marshall [18].

Trump Announces 15% Global Tariff via Section 122 Hours after the decision, Trump posted on Truth Social that the worldwide tariff will rise from the 10% rate announced earlier to a maximum 15% under the unused Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act [1][4][5][7][11][15]. A presidential decree sets the 15% rate to begin on 24 February 2026 for a 150‑day period, exempting pharmaceuticals and goods covered by the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement [1][4][15]. The administration has not confirmed whether the increase will take effect immediately or later in the “short number of months” mentioned by Trump [2][4].

Economic Fallout and Refund Uncertainty Analysts estimate that customs duties collected under the invalidated tariffs exceeded $130 billion in 2025, prompting calls for refunds that could take years to resolve [1][5][14][15]. The Tax Foundation projects that a 15% duty would raise the overall tariff burden on imports to about 6% of value [4]. Retailers such as Walmart and Amazon may benefit from higher foreign prices, while consumer price relief is unlikely [4][5][6]. Businesses ranging from toy importers to steel‑fabrication firms are preparing lawsuits to recover previously paid duties, and industry groups urge a smooth refund mechanism [6][7][14][15].

Global Reactions and Upcoming Diplomacy France’s trade minister and Germany’s chancellor said the EU will consider coordinated counter‑measures, citing tools like the anti‑coercion instrument [1][13]. Japan’s prime minister is monitoring the impact ahead of a Washington visit, and China’s President Xi is expected to downplay the ruling while seeking to preserve the fragile trade truce before Trump’s planned March‑April Beijing trip [3][12]. The United Kingdom, Australia, and other partners now face the 15% rate despite prior 10% agreements, prompting diplomatic discussions on privileged trading positions [5][12].

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Timeline

Apr 2, 2025 – Trump unveils “day of liberation” reciprocal tariffs of up to 25 % on Mexico, Canada and other partners, later reduced to 15 % after Seoul pledges a $350 billion U.S. investment, using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as legal basis [20][14].

Nov 5, 2025 – The Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the case challenging Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs, a fast‑tracked review after lower‑court rulings found the tariffs exceeded statutory authority [21].

Jan 12, 2026 – Trump warns on social media that a court loss would create a “complete mess” and make refunding the $130‑$133 billion already collected “almost impossible,” signaling the stakes of the pending decision [25].

Jan 15, 2026 – South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han‑koo says Seoul will monitor the U.S. ruling and prepare an “optimal response,” noting the possibility of a 25 % AI‑chip tariff and that Korea may face other U.S. authorities such as Section 301 if IEEPA tariffs fall [23][24].

Jan 16, 2026 – Administration officials outline a backup plan that could deploy Section 301 or the 150‑day window of the Trade Act if the Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, with USTR Jamieson Greer heavily involved [22].

Jan 20, 2026 – The Supreme Court signals it will issue a ruling soon on whether the president can impose sweeping tariffs under IEEPA, a decision expected to reshape executive trade power [21].

Feb 20, 2026 – In a 6‑3 decision, the Supreme Court holds that the president lacks inherent tariff authority under IEEPA, nullifying the 2025 global tariff regime and opening the door to refunds potentially exceeding $175 billion [20][18][30].

Feb 20, 2026 – Trump announces a 10 % worldwide tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, effective Feb 24, citing the ruling as “certainty” and pledging the measure will last 150 days unless Congress extends it [5][17][28][8][9].

Feb 20, 2026 – Trump denounces the six justices as “disgraceful” and “unpatriotic,” attacks three liberal and three conservative justices, and vows to use other statutes (Sections 232, 301, 338) to continue his trade agenda [2][4][18][19][26].

Feb 20, 2026 – State leaders demand refunds, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom calling the tariffs an “illegal cash grab” and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker invoicing the administration for nearly $9 billion in alleged overcharges [5].

Feb 20, 2026 – Wall Street steadies; the S&P 500 rises 0.7 % and the Nasdaq 0.9 % as investors anticipate the new 10 % levy and the market absorbs the Supreme Court’s check on executive power [16][3].

Feb 21, 2026 – Trump raises the global tariff to the statutory maximum of 15 % via a Truth Social post, arguing the increase follows a “thorough review” of the Court’s “ridiculous” decision [1][6].

Feb 21, 2026 – Business leaders react: small‑business owners hail the Court’s ruling as a “major victory,” while trade groups urge swift, orderly refunds and warn the administration may pursue additional levies under other authorities [3][4][15].

Feb 21, 2026 – The United States, Canada and Mexico prepare for USMCA renegotiations slated for summer 2026, with the new 10‑15 % global tariff framed as a bargaining tool in the talks [2][4].

Feb 21, 2026 – The Treasury reports total tariff collections of over $133 billion to date, and the Congressional Budget Office projects a $3 trillion economic impact over the next decade, underscoring the fiscal significance of the policy shift [8][9].

Feb 22, 2026 – Analysts note that the 150‑day window on the Section 122 tariff will expire in late July 2026, after which Congress must act to extend or terminate the levy, making the upcoming congressional session a critical juncture for trade policy [1][6].

Summer 2026 (planned) – USMCA negotiations proceed amid the new global tariff regime, with stakeholders watching how the 10‑15 % duties affect automotive, agricultural and technology sectors [2][4].

July 2026 (expected) – The Section 122 tariff period ends; Congress faces pressure to either renew the 10‑15 % levy, replace it with alternative statutes, or dismantle the tariff altogether [1][6].

Late 2026 (anticipated) – The New York International Trade Court will hear refund claims stemming from the invalidated IEEPA tariffs, determining whether importers can recover portions of the $175 billion‑plus collected [29].

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