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New START Treaty Lapses, Leaving Global Nuclear Arms Unchecked After February 5

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Treaty Expiration Removes Legal Caps on Strategic Warheads The New START treaty, signed in 2011, expired on 5 February 2026, ending the legally binding limit of 1,550 nuclear warheads per side and the associated verification, notification, and on‑site inspection regime for the United States and Russia [1]. Its lapse eliminates the last formal restraint on the two largest nuclear arsenals, which together hold roughly 90 % of the world’s warheads [1]. No automatic renewal mechanism existed, so the agreement simply terminated on the specified date [1].

No International Framework Governs Strategic Nuclear Forces Since 1972 For the first time since the 1972 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, there is no treaty that caps or regulates the development, deployment, or testing of intercontinental nuclear weapons on submarines, bombers, or land‑based missiles [1]. The absence of any binding instrument leaves the global deterrence architecture “unbounded,” according to the editorial [1]. This vacuum applies to all major nuclear powers, not just the United States and Russia [1].

China, United States, and Russia Poised to Expand Stockpiles The article notes that China, while currently lagging, is actively pursuing a larger arsenal to match the United States and Russia, which together control about 90 % of global warheads [1]. All three states appear set to “muscle” their stockpiles in the post‑START environment [1]. Analysts cited in the piece warn that this could accelerate a new arms buildup across the major powers [1].

U.S. Decision and Russian Reaction Heighten Tensions President Donald Trump declined to extend the treaty or guarantee the 1,550‑warhead ceiling, a move opposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had advocated an extension [1]. New York Times journalists David Sanger and William Broad warned that a “new generation of nuclear weapons” is emerging as “vengeance after New Start,” suggesting a renewed arms competition [1]. Their reporting underscores the heightened risk of a fresh nuclear race following the treaty’s lapse [1].

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Timeline

2010 – The United States and Russia sign the New START treaty, capping each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, and establishing a verification regime of on‑site inspections [4][13].

2020 – Presidents sign a five‑year extension of New START, pushing the expiry from 2021 to February 5 2026 [1][11].

2021 – The extension takes effect, keeping the last bilateral nuclear arms‑control limits in force [1][11].

2023 – Russia suspends its participation in New START verification, accusing the United States of “strategic defeat” and halting data exchanges, while the United States also withholds data [11][6].

2024 – Russia fields MIRV‑capable Oreshnik missiles in Ukraine, illustrating the erosion of the treaty’s psychological barrier between nuclear and conventional weapons [3].

Jan 2025 – Donald Trump returns to the White House and signals he will not extend New START, preferring a “better” deal and hinting at reviving Cold‑War‑era nuclear‑armed battleships [5][2].

Sep 22 2025 – President Vladimir Putin offers a voluntary one‑year extension of New START limits; the United States does not reply, prompting Russian officials to label the silence “erroneous and regrettable” [6][9].

Jan 15 2026 – The Kremlin reports that President Trump remains silent on Putin’s extension offer, while the White House says it will pursue a “better” agreement if the treaty lapses [9].

Jan 26 2026 – Dmitry Medvedev warns that the “nuclear club” will keep expanding as more states consider acquiring nuclear weapons, and notes the U.S. has not answered Russia’s extension request [8].

Feb 4 2026 – Russia’s Foreign Ministry warns of “decisive action” once New START expires, saying the lapse frees both sides from treaty obligations [6].

Feb 4 2026 – The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, citing the treaty’s end and rising nuclear danger [7].

Feb 5 2026 – New START officially expires, ending the last legally binding caps on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972 [1][11][12][13].

Feb 5 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that the U.S. will not extend New START, calling it “badly negotiated” and urging experts to draft a “new, improved, and modernized” treaty that includes China [1][4][5][10].

Feb 5 2026 – The Bulletin again updates the Doomsday Clock, this time to 85 seconds to midnight, emphasizing leadership failures and the loss of the last major nuclear guardrail [3].

Feb 5 2026 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio backs a China‑inclusive arms‑control approach, arguing true 21st‑century security must involve Beijing [1][4].

Feb 5 2026 – Russia states it can proceed without New START limits and signals a “balanced and responsible” response while discussing the lapse with Chinese President Xi [Jinping] [10][6].

Feb 5 2026 – China’s foreign ministry regrets the treaty’s expiration but rejects joining a trilateral nuclear pact, calling such a demand “neither fair nor reasonable” [7].

Feb 5 2026 – Former New START chief negotiator Rose Gottemoeller warns the lapse benefits Putin and harms the United States’ global image, calling it a diplomatic win for Russia [5].

Feb 5 2026 – Former President Barack Obama cautions that the end of New START could spark a new arms race, blaming congressional inaction for the failure to restart the treaty after Russia’s 2023 withdrawal [5][13].

Feb 5 2026 – A YouGov poll shows 91 % of Americans support negotiating a new agreement or maintaining current limits, and 85 % of Trump voters would back Putin’s extension proposal [5].

Feb 5 2026 – Senior U.S. and Russian officials resume military‑to‑military talks in Abu Dhabi, agreeing to re‑establish high‑level dialogue despite the treaty’s end [10].

Feb 5 2026 – Experts from the NTI, Arms Control Association, and Atlantic Council warn that abandoning the caps risks a rapid Russian buildup and could trigger an uncontrolled U.S.–Russia–China nuclear competition [1][7].

2026 onward – The United States signals intent to craft a new multilateral transparency regime combining basic U.S.–Russia data exchange, P5‑wide definition standards, and broader non‑proliferation tools such as hotlines and launch notifications [11].

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