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Ukraine Gains Hundreds of Square Kilometers as Russia Tightens Internet Crackdown and Faces Recruitment Shortfall

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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia (BBC) Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
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    Image: AP
    Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
  • Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Posters offering large sums of money for joining the army are everywhere in Russia (BBC) Source Full size
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    None
    Image: BBC
    Source Full size
  • Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia
    Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia
    Image: BBC
    Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shelters like these didn't exist in Russia Source Full size
  • "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects
    "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects
    Image: BBC
    "The special military operation is excellent. It's just that prices keep rising" - even Russians who support the invasion are feeling the economic effects Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev, from the remote village of Sedanka in Russia's Far East, died four months after signing up to fight in the Ukraine war (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract
    Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract
    Image: BBC
    Vladimir Akeev died in the war, four months after signing an army contract (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe
    One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe
    Image: BBC
    One in five houses in Sedanka, built during Soviet times, has been deemed by the state to be unsafe (Kamchatka government) Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
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    Image: AP
    Source Full size
  • Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Image: Le Monde
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE» (VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE») Source Full size

Four‑Year Conflict Exhausts Russian Manpower and Economy The full‑scale invasion began on 24 February 2022 and entered its 1,418‑day fourth year on 24 February 2026, matching the length of the Soviet‑German front in World II [2][1]. Open‑source estimates place total military deaths, injuries and missing at roughly two million on both sides, with about 1.2 million Russian casualties and 500‑600 thousand Ukrainian losses [2][6]. A recruitment billboard in Yelets offers a one‑off £15,000 payment to new soldiers, while the Finance Ministry raised VAT to 22 % to fund the war, deepening household cost pressures [1][7].

Ukrainian Forces Reclaim Over 300 sq km in February President Zelensky announced on 20 February that Ukrainian troops liberated roughly 300 sq km in the south, a claim echoed by ISW’s confirmation of at least 168.9 sq km retaken since 1 January 2026 and specific village advances along the Dnipropetrovsk‑Zaporizhia border [3][3]. Newsweek reported a five‑day surge from 11‑15 February that recovered 201 sq km, the fastest advance since mid‑2023, while ISW’s February 20 assessment found Russian gains limited to 572 sq km and 19 settlements, far below Kremlin‑promoted figures [8][5].

Russia Expands Online Repression and Propaganda Ahead of Duma Vote On 20 February President Putin signed a decree empowering the FSB to block Telegram and other services nationwide, removing “emerging security threat” language and citing Ukrainian intelligence exploitation [3][5]. The Kremlin simultaneously amplified a false victory narrative, claiming 900 sq km seized since January 2026, a claim contradicted by ISW’s satellite analysis showing much smaller advances [5][5]. United Russia was directed to flood media with pro‑government stories on social benefits before the September Duma election, while former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev faced a criminal case for “discrediting” the army [5][5].

Drones and Belarusian Networks Amplify Battlefield Dynamics Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” operation in June 2025 used truck‑mounted drones to strike Russian bomber bases, and a massive 400‑drone, 29‑missile barrage hit Russian energy and industrial sites ahead of the Geneva talks in February 2026 [2][8]. Russian drones now rely on civilian cellular towers in Belarus for navigation, enabling routes that cross former NATO airspace, according to pro‑Ukrainian hacker disclosures [3][3]. Ukrainian forces also employed FP‑5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles to hit the Votkinsk missile plant and the Neftegorsk gas‑processing facility, with satellite heat signatures confirming the strikes [3][3].

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Timeline

24 Feb 2022 – Kremlin launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, beginning a war that eventually outlasts the Soviet‑German front of the Great Patriotic War and sets a four‑year timeline for the conflict. [1]

2024 – Ukrainian forces carry out the “Koursk” deep‑strike operation inside Russian territory, a maneuver later credited by General Syrsky as a turning point that helps prevent a worse Russian advance. [28]

2025 – BBC analysis estimates 80 000 Russian military deaths in 2025 and a total of up to 413 500 casualties, indicating a death rate of 45‑65 % of actual losses. [2]

2025 – BBC‑confirmed battlefield deaths reach nearly 160 000 Russian soldiers, while NATO estimates total Russian dead and wounded at about 1.1 million, underscoring the war’s unprecedented human cost. [3]

2025 – Volunteers account for one‑third of Russian battlefield deaths, and 336 000 people sign up for the military, reflecting a shift toward paid recruitment amid a shrinking conscript pool. [3]

2025 – President Donald Trump claims Russia’s size will secure victory, while NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte warns Moscow loses about 1 000 troops a day, highlighting divergent Western assessments. [6]

1 Dec 2025 – Russia announces capture of the eastern city of Pokrovsk; Kyiv disputes the claim, reporting ongoing fighting in the city’s northern sector. [9]

2 Dec 2025 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets President Putin in Moscow, a high‑level diplomatic contact that follows U.S.–Ukrainian talks in Florida. [9][23]

4‑5 Dec 2025 – Ukrainian National Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and General Andriy Hnatov meet U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miami to discuss a U.S.‑drafted 28‑point peace plan. [23][24]

5 Dec 2025 – Putin rejects several elements of the U.S. peace proposal, labeling the 27‑point version unacceptable and continuing Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including the Kherson thermal power plant. [14]

Nov 2025 – Putin claims “significant gains” such as seizing Kupyansk and encircling Pokrovsk, but ISW satellite analysis shows actual advances are limited to 15‑64 % of those towns and only a few kilometres forward. [26][27]

Nov 2025 – Russian forces conduct a months‑long battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that degrades Ukrainian logistics and enables small‑unit infiltrations, contributing to modest territorial gains around Pokrovsk. [17]

Nov 2025 – Russian advance in Donetsk averages 0.12 km per day, with Pokrovsk only 66 % occupied after 118 days, illustrating a protracted and costly offensive. [27]

28 Jan 2026 – CSIS estimates 1.2 million Russian casualties (275‑325 k killed, the rest wounded or missing), a loss rate unseen since World II and far exceeding Russian recruitment capacity. [6]

5 Feb 2026 – Russia’s Finance Ministry raises VAT from 20 % to 22 % to fund defence, while residents of Yelets report crushing utility bills and small businesses raise prices. [1]

6 Feb 2026 – U.S. and Russia re‑establish a high‑level military hotline in Abu Dhabi, signaling a thaw after four years of direct tension. [13]

11‑15 Feb 2026 – Ukraine retakes 201 sq km in a five‑day surge, the fastest advance since mid‑2023, as Russian use of Starlink is curtailed and Moscow launches a massive drone‑missile strike ahead of Geneva talks. [10]

20‑21 Feb 2026 – Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet in Geneva for peace talks; Russia insists on retaining large parts of Donetsk and southern Ukraine, while Kyiv rejects any territorial concession as illegal. [10]

20 Feb 2026 – President Zelensky says Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 300 sq km in the south, complementing ISW‑verified gains of at least 168.9 sq km since Jan 2026. [18]

20 Feb 2026 – Putin signs a decree empowering the FSB to block Telegram and other services, expanding state control over internet communications. [18]

21 Feb 2026 – Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy claims Russian forces have seized 900 sq km and 42 settlements since Jan 2026, but ISW data shows only 572 sq km and 19 settlements captured, highlighting a propaganda‑driven victory narrative. [19]

22 Feb 2026 – U.S. administration conditions additional weapons and NATO‑style Article 5 guarantees on Ukraine ceding all of Donbas, a demand ISW warns would be strategically disastrous for Kyiv. [21]

22 Feb 2026 – Russian Ministry of Defence announces seizure of Sydorivka in Sumy Oblast, a “border‑village” claim lacking visual verification and part of a cognitive‑warfare narrative of tiny raids. [20]

22 Feb 2026 – Ukrainian troops express doubt that Russia will honor any peace pact, fearing a short‑term truce would let Moscow regroup for renewed invasion. [16]

22 Feb 2026 – General Oleksandr Syrsky states Russian casualties now exceed the number of new recruits, rendering Moscow’s war effort unsustainable. [28]

23 Feb 2026 – In Yelets, a recruitment billboard offers a one‑off £15 000 payment for signing up to fight in Ukraine, while a nine‑storey mural commemorates five local soldiers killed on the front. [1]

23 Feb 2026 – Ukrainian drone strikes prompt the installation of concrete emergency shelters at bus stops, parks and building basements across Russian regions such as Lipetsk, with sirens sounding almost nightly. [1]

20 Feb 2026 – Russian village Sedanka in the Far East reports that 39 of its 258 residents aged 18‑55 enlisted, 12 killed and seven missing, leaving almost every household with a family member at the front. [2]

Future (June 2026) – U.S.‑mediated peace negotiations set a June deadline for a ceasefire and settlement, reflecting ongoing diplomatic pressure despite stalled talks. [12]

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