2022 – Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan triggers China’s largest‑to‑date drills – Beijing launches massive live‑fire exercises around the island in retaliation for Nancy Pelosi’s historic trip, marking a sharp escalation that sets a precedent for later “Justice Mission 2025” drills[15].

2022 – PLA begins regular “grey‑zone” drills around Taiwan – The People’s Liberation Army starts a series of joint army‑navy‑air‑rocket exercises, establishing a pattern of pressure that intensifies after U.S. arms sales[3].

2024 – Lai Ching‑te assumes Taiwan’s presidency – Lai’s inauguration raises cross‑strait tensions, prompting Beijing to cite his term as a trigger for heightened military activity[3].

Dec 5 2025 – U.S. releases National Security Strategy emphasizing Taiwan – The strategy devotes several paragraphs to Taiwan’s semiconductor role and “status‑quo” deterrence, while mentioning China only once, signaling a shift toward economic framing[23].

Dec 8 2025 – China responds to U.S. NSS, reiterates Taiwan red line – Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun warns that “the Taiwan question is the first red line that cannot be crossed” in U.S.–China relations[25].

Dec 10 2025 – Germany warns China against Taiwan Strait escalation – German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul issues a statement that any change to the status‑quo must be non‑violent, underscoring European concern over the growing flashpoint[24].

Dec 18 2025 – U.S. announces $11 billion arms package for Taiwan – The Trump administration clears a deal that includes HIMARS launchers, self‑propelled howitzers and missiles, the largest sale since the Biden era[4].

Dec 26 2025 – China sanctions 20 U.S. defence firms over the arms sale – Beijing imposes symbolic counter‑measures targeting firms involved in the $11 billion package, warning the U.S. to halt “provocations” on Taiwan[27].

Dec 29 2025 – Beijing issues a red‑line warning to the United States – Chinese officials tell Washington that further U.S. support for Taiwan will cross a “red line,” heightening diplomatic tension[21].

Dec 29 2025 – China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills around Taiwan – Army, navy, air force and rocket units conduct live‑fire exercises simulating a blockade of key ports, with five no‑fly zones announced and 130 aircraft and 22 ships deployed in the first 24 hours[22][5].

Dec 30 2025 – President Trump says he is “not worried” about the drills – In a press briefing, Trump claims his “great relationship” with Xi means Beijing “won’t invade” and downplays the risk of the Chinese exercises[20].

Dec 30 2025 – Trump adds “nothing worries me” as China conducts naval drills – The president repeats his confidence, stating that the drills are routine and that he does not believe Xi plans an invasion[19].

Dec 31 2025 – Xi Jinping’s New Year’s Eve address reaffirms unification goal – Xi declares Taiwan’s reunification “unstoppable,” frames it as a “bond of blood and kinship,” and does not rule out the use of force[12].

Dec 31 2025 – PLA declares “Justice Mission 2025” completed – Beijing’s Eastern Theater Command says the two‑day operation fully tests joint‑operations capability, while Japan labels the drills “escalatory”[13].

Jan 1 2026 – U.S. State Department urges China to halt pressure on Taiwan – The department calls for restraint, opposes unilateral changes to the status‑quo and reaffirms support for peace across the strait[10].

Jan 1 2026 – Taiwan President Lai Ching‑te vows to defend sovereignty – In a New Year address, Lai pledges to “safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty,” boost defense spending and build resilience amid Beijing’s expansion[11].

Jan 1 2026 – Xi does not rule out force; PLA could act by 2027 – Xi warns that “force remains an option” for reunification, while U.S. officials assess the PLA will be capable of an operation by the end of 2027[10].

Jan 30 2026 – Taiwan forward‑deploys HIMARS launchers to Penghu and Dongyin – The island places U.S.‑made systems within 30 miles of China’s coast, capable of firing ATACMS missiles up to 186 miles, prompting Chinese defence ministry to call the move “provocative”[9].

Feb 4 2026 – Trump says his call with Xi covered Taiwan, Ukraine and Iran – On Truth Social, Trump describes the conversation as “long and thorough,” praising his “extremely good” relationship with Xi and noting upcoming trade talks[28].

Feb 5 2026 – Xi urges the United States to handle Taiwan arms sales prudently – In a phone call, Xi labels Taiwan “the most important issue” in bilateral relations and warns Washington to act with caution on weapons supplies[1].

Feb 5 2026 – Trump hails the call as “excellent” and looks forward to an April China visit – Trump posts that the discussion was “very much” thorough and says he “very much” anticipates his scheduled trip to Beijing in April[1].

Feb 17 2026 – Trump announces on Air Force One that he “talked to” Xi about future Taiwan arms sales – The president says a decision will be made “pretty soon,” marking a rare public admission of U.S.–China dialogue on the issue[7].

Feb 18 2026 – Trump claims he is “discussing” Taiwan arms sales with China, sparking Six‑Assurances concerns – Analysts warn the remarks could breach the U.S. “Six Assurances” that forbid consultation with Beijing on Taiwan weapons deals[6].

Feb 18 2026 – Taiwan’s opposition plans to review a $40 billion defense budget after parliament reconvenes on Feb 23 – Lawmakers intend to examine the special budget amid doubts about U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security[6].

Apr 2026 (planned) – President Trump’s first China visit of his term – The trip, announced in February, is expected to feature discussions on trade, technology and Taiwan, with the island likely to dominate the agenda[1][7].