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India Weighs Venezuelan Heavy Crude While Cuba Endures Fuel Shortage After U.S. Cutoff

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Indian refiners doubt Venezuelan oil’s economic appeal Major Indian processors say the heavy, viscous, acidic Venezuelan crude would require costly 10‑15% blending with lighter grades, demanding specialized catalysts and pipe‑pressure upgrades that cannot be implemented overnight[1]. Hindustan Petroleum’s S. Bharathan and Bharat Petroleum’s Sanjay Khanna note high metal and nitrogen content that accelerates corrosion, raising operational risk and maintenance expense[1]. Despite a recent Reliance Industries shipment of roughly two million barrels to Jamnagar, the sector remains wary because the anticipated discount must offset five‑fold higher shipping costs from the Caribbean[1].

India’s policy stance remains tentative amid sanctions history The Ministry of External Affairs confirms India imported Venezuelan oil until 2019‑20, briefly resumed in 2023‑24, then halted purchases again after renewed U.S. sanctions, leaving Venezuela at only 1‑2% of India’s crude basket today[1]. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stresses openness to future deals if price and logistics improve, but past sanctions continue to constrain trade routes and financing[1]. Fitch data show Venezuela’s output fell to 0.88 million bpd in 2024, limiting supply reliability despite holding 17% of global reserves[1].

Cuba’s tourism boom collapsed following U.S. oil embargo After the 2015 U.S.–Cuba diplomatic thaw, visitor arrivals surged, fueling a classic‑car tour industry exemplified by driver Mandy Pruna’s 1957 Chevrolet, which even featured in the embassy flag‑raising ceremony[2]. The Trump administration’s cessation of Venezuelan‑sourced fuel shipments in early 2026 cut off “hundreds of millions of dollars‑worth of fuel,” crippling power generation and transport across the island[2]. The resulting fuel scarcity forced school closures, hotel shutdowns, and airline cancellations, prompting travel advisories from the UK and Canada[2].

Cuban authorities face mounting pressure to reform amid crisis President Donald Trump warned that without oil “there’s no money, there’s no anything,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Havana to open its centralized economy to external aid[2]. Food importers halted operations because power outages disabled refrigeration, driving consumer prices up two‑to‑threefold and threatening food security[2]. Driver Pruna, whose livelihood depended on tourism, has suspended his license and is considering emigrating to Spain with his family[2].

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Timeline

1922 – The Los Barrosos‑2 well is drilled, and by December 14 it erupts with a gusher that “could not be stopped for more than a week,” launching Venezuela’s modern oil era [20].

1976 – Venezuela creates the state oil company PDVSA, consolidating control of its hydrocarbon sector and cementing the country’s role as a major oil exporter [20].

2006 – President Hugo Chávez passes a new hydrocarbons law that “nationalized foreign oil assets and made PDVSA the principal stakeholder,” reshaping the industry into a state‑run model [7].

Dec 12, 2025 – President Nicolás Maduro blames the United States for “capturing Venezuela’s vast oil reserves,” while the U.S. seizes a tanker for sanctions violations; analysts note Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels of proven reserves but produced only ~860 k bpd in Nov 2025, and Chevron remains the sole U.S. producer under waivers [25].

Dec 17, 2025 – Donald Trump declares that Venezuela must “repay seized oil assets” and announces a “blockade” of sanctioned tankers, citing past arbitration where “ExxonMobil was awarded about $1.6 billion” and warning that U.S. forces have already seized a tanker off Venezuela’s coast [24].

Jan 3, 2026 – Chevron issues a statement emphasizing “safety, asset integrity and compliance with laws” after Trump announces the United States will “run Venezuela’s oil,” while the administration also indicts Maduro in New York on narco‑terrorism charges [23].

Jan 4, 2026 – Trump publicly urges U.S. oil majors to “invest billions to rebuild Venezuela’s damaged oil infrastructure,” framing the effort as essential for both countries [22]; analysts warn the plan “won’t move global oil prices in the near term” and note the sector’s “decades of decay” [26]; the White House also says the plan “could take a decade and about $100 billion” to restore output [30].

Jan 5, 2026 – Trump vows that the U.S. will place “Venezuela’s oil sector under U.S. oversight” and rebuild it, while RBC’s Helima Croft estimates the effort would cost “about $10 billion a year” and PDVSA says $58 billion is needed to upgrade pipelines [20][20].

Jan 6, 2026 – Major oil firms express “wariness” that “low oil prices make the massive investment needed to restore Venezuela’s oil sector unviable,” with analysts noting a $183 billion cost to return to pre‑decline levels [19].

Jan 7, 2026 – Trump posts that Venezuela will turn over “30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States” and that proceeds will “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” ordering Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute the transfer [17]; the White House also announces it will “control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely” as it prepares to sell an initial 30‑50 million‑barrel tranche [5]; a U.S. raid captures Maduro, killing dozens and prompting a crackdown in Caracas [18]; the administration schedules a Friday meeting with Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips to discuss the oil plan [29].

Jan 8, 2026 – senior Trump officials outline a “makeshift strategy” to seize and sell “millions of barrels” of Venezuelan oil while courting long‑term U.S. investment, noting that “legal, logistical and authority questions remain unresolved” with interim President Delcy Rodríguez [16].

Jan 9, 2026 – Trump calls for “rapid Venezuela oil investment” of roughly $100 billion, urging companies to fix infrastructure and tap the country’s reserves after the U.S. raid that ousted Maduro [28].

Jan 10, 2026 – At a White House meeting, Trump pushes oil executives to back a “$100 billion” investment in Venezuela’s oil sector, linking it to “lower energy prices for Americans,” while ExxonMobil’s Darren Woods warns the country is “uninvestable” under current conditions [4].

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump urges Cuba to strike a deal or “face consequences,” stating that “there will be no more oil or money flowing to Cuba” unless Havana complies, as the U.S. seizes a fifth sanctioned tanker [3]; former national‑security adviser John Bolton warns the oil push could “backfire” by scaring investors away [15].

Jan 12, 2026 – Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel says Cuba is “open to serious dialogue” on “sovereign equality, mutual respect and international law,” while Trump tells reporters he is “inclined to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela” after the CEO called the country “uninvestable” [14][27].

Jan 15, 2026 – The United States completes its first Venezuelan oil sale, netting $500 million, and holds the proceeds in a Qatar‑based account, with plans to auction the funds to Venezuelan banks for “food, medicine and small businesses” [13][12].

Jan 16, 2026 – The U.S. Department of Energy considers a swap that would place Venezuelan heavy crude at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port while using U.S. medium‑sour crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [11].

Jan 22, 2026 – Venezuela’s National Assembly advances a bill that would let private operators “manage oil fields under contracts with PDVSA,” cut royalties to as low as 15 % and allow disputes to go to international arbitration, marking the first major overhaul since the 2007 Chávez‑era nationalizations [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announces a “temporary halt” to Pemex oil shipments to Cuba, dropping deliveries from ~20,000 bpd to ~7,000 bpd, and says the pause is a “sovereign decision” unrelated to U.S. pressure [9].

Jan 30, 2026 – The Venezuelan legislature approves a new contract model allowing foreign firms to operate oilfields, and Acting President Delcy Rodríguez signs a law that “opens the oil sector to privatization,” caps royalties at 30 % and shifts dispute resolution to independent arbitration [1][7][8]; Trump reiterates his $100 billion investment proposal, while ExxonMobil’s CEO repeats that Venezuela is “uninvestable” without “substantial legal protections” [1][4].

Feb 19, 2026 – Indian refiners express “skepticism” about importing Venezuelan crude, noting its “heavy, viscous, acidic” profile requires 10‑15 % blending and specialized catalysts, even as Reliance Industries receives a 2‑million‑barrel cargo, while India’s ministry recalls that imports fell from 10‑13 % of its basket to 1‑2 % after sanctions [6].

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