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India Eyes Venezuelan Crude While Cuba Seeks Russian Fuel Amid U.S. Sanctions

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U.S. Actions Trigger Regional Oil Supply Shock The United States captured President Nicolás Maduro and intensified its embargo on Venezuela, halting crude shipments to Cuba and prompting Mexico to stop its oil exports in January 2026 [1][2][3]. The move cut off “hundreds of millions of dollars‑worth of fuel” that powered Cuban power plants and refineries, while also limiting Indian access to Venezuelan oil that had briefly returned in 2023‑24 [1][3]. Both India and Cuba now confront supply gaps that the United States’ geopolitical pressure created.

Indian Refineries Confront Heavy, Acidic Venezuelan Crude Experts at Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum describe Venezuelan Merey crude as bottom‑heavy, highly viscous, with elevated acid numbers, metal, and nitrogen content [1]. Processing it requires 10‑15 % blending with lighter grades, specialized catalysts, and recalibrated equipment to avoid pressure spikes and corrosion in pipes and vessels [1]. Refinery managers warn that such adjustments cannot be completed “overnight,” and storage capacity for the heavier blend remains limited [1].

Reliance Industries Moves First Large Venezuelan Cargo Reliance’s Jamnagar complex received a Very Large Crude Carrier carrying roughly two million barrels of Venezuelan oil, marking the first sizable shipment to India since the 2019‑20 pause [1]. The Jamnagar refinery is uniquely equipped to handle extra‑heavy crude, positioning it to test the feasibility of larger future imports [1]. Analysts estimate a potential $3 billion reduction in India’s fuel bill if a $10‑12‑per‑barrel discount is secured, despite shipping costs that are five times higher than Middle‑East routes [1].

Cuba Seeks Russian Fuel Aid Amid Blackouts Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez met with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, urging Moscow to counter U.S. blockade plans and secure fuel deliveries for Cuba’s power plants [2]. Putin pledged continued Russian support for Cuban sovereignty, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that any humanitarian fuel aid is unrelated to recent U.S.–Russia détente [2]. The cessation of Venezuelan and Mexican oil shipments in January 2026 deepened Cuba’s shortages, prompting Russian tourism firms to suspend Cuba tours due to fuel limits [2].

Tourism Collapse Deepens Cuban Humanitarian Crisis The fuel shortage forced school closures, hotel shutdowns, and airline cancellations, while food imports stalled, driving prices up two‑to‑threefold and threatening hunger [3]. Classic‑car driver Mandy Pruna, who once ferried tourists in a 1957 Chevrolet, suspended his license and is considering emigrating to Spain as the tourism sector withers [3]. U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have used the crisis to demand economic reforms in Cuba, linking oil scarcity to broader political pressure [3].

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Timeline

1970s – Venezuela pumped up to 3.5 million barrels per day, supplying over 7 % of global crude and marking the peak of its oil boom, a level later eroded by mismanagement and sanctions. [1]

2007 – Hugo Chávez’s government nationalized the oil sector, ending foreign majority ownership and establishing PDVSA’s dominance, a policy later reversed by 2026 reforms. [13]

Dec 12, 2025 – The United States seized a tanker for alleged sanctions violations; President Maduro accused Washington of targeting Venezuela’s oil reserves, while analysts noted the country’s 303 billion‑barrel reserves but only ≈860 k bpd output and highlighted Chevron as the sole U.S. producer operating under waivers. [25]

Dec 17, 2025 – President Trump demanded Venezuela repay seized U.S. oil assets, declared a “blockade” on sanctioned tankers, and cited past arbitration over Exxon’s $1.6 bn claim, while the UN called for restraint amid heightened tensions. [24]

Jan 4, 2026 – Trump publicly urged U.S. oil majors to invest billions to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry after a U.S. raid captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting analysts to warn that reviving output would require massive capital and favorable prices. [23]

Jan 4, 2026 – A U.S. plan to seize Venezuela’s oil faced hurdles: despite 303 billion barrels of reserves, production lingered near 1.1 million bpd, infrastructure was decayed, and investors demanded stability, clear contracts, and an end to sanctions. [26]

Jan 4, 2026 – Analysts projected a decade‑long, $100 bn effort to lift production from under 1 million bpd to historic levels, noting legal disputes over oil ownership and Chevron’s status as the only major U.S. operator. [30]

Jan 5, 2026 – U.S. energy stocks surged after the Maduro seizure; Trump pledged to “run” Venezuela until a safe transition and to tap its oil, while analysts warned that restoring output would cost billions and take years. [21]

Jan 5, 2026 – Trump pushed a plan to tap Venezuela’s oil, but experts warned of huge costs, long timelines, and sanctions that limited investment, noting production remained at ≈860 k bpd. [22]

Jan 6, 2026 – Trump declared U.S. oil firms “headed back” to Venezuela, but emphasized that “substantial risk” must be cut, security guarantees are required, sanctions and fiscal rules must change, and asset‑seizure claims need resolution before any $10 bn‑plus annual investment. [20]

Jan 7, 2026 – The White House announced it will control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely, preparing an initial 30‑50 million‑barrel tranche with proceeds deposited in U.S.–controlled accounts, framing the move as leverage to drive political change. [5]

Jan 7, 2026 – Trump said Venezuela would deliver 30‑50 million barrels to the United States, scheduled a meeting with Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, and linked the transfer—worth up to $2.8 bn—to the predawn raid that captured Maduro and killed dozens, including 32 Cubans. [29]

Jan 9, 2026 – Environmental experts warned that expanding Venezuela’s heavy‑oil production would exacerbate methane emissions (six‑times world average) and flaring, requiring billions of dollars and years of investment to mitigate ecological damage. [18]

Jan 9, 2026 – Venezuela’s economy spiraled: IMF‑estimated inflation hit 682 %, wages stagnated, and the Maduro capture deepened uncertainty, with analysts cautioning that a single oil sale would not quickly alleviate hardship. [19]

Jan 9, 2026 – Trump urged rapid $100 bn private investment in Venezuela’s oil, announced U.S. seizure of tankers and control of tens of millions of barrels, while Exxon’s Darren Woods called the current framework “uninvestable” and Trump pledged “total safety” for investors. [28]

Jan 10, 2026 – At a White House meeting, Trump pressed oil executives to fund a $100 bn private‑money plan to revive Venezuela’s oil, projected 8‑12 years to reach 3 million bpd, and signaled talks to reopen the U.S. embassy in Caracas. [17]

Jan 10, 2026 – Trump told executives he would personally decide which U.S. firms could enter Venezuela; Woods reiterated the “uninvestable” label, nine political prisoners were released, and Maduro’s son faced U.S. indictment, while Acting President Delcy Rodríguez condemned the raid as criminal aggression. [16]

Jan 10, 2026 – Trump pushed a $100 bn Venezuela oil investment, but Exxon’s CEO warned the country was “uninvestable”; Chevron pledged growth, Trump said the U.S. would pick operators, and sanctions were rolled back selectively under U.S. control. [4]

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump warned Cuba to strike a deal or lose Venezuelan oil, after the U.S. seized a fifth sanctioned tanker; Cuba’s foreign minister asserted its right to import fuel, while the Maduro raid reportedly killed 32 Cuban personnel. [3]

Jan 12, 2026 – Cuban President Díaz‑Canel rejected Trump’s demand for a deal, posting “No one dictates what we do,” while Cuba reported 32 citizens killed in the Maduro operation and denounced U.S. pressure as piracy. [15]

Jan 16, 2026 – Acting President Delcy Rodríguez used a state‑of‑the‑union address to push foreign oil investment, citing the U.S. pledge to control oil revenues, directing proceeds into two sovereign funds, and meeting opposition leader María Corina Machado, who handed Trump her Nobel medal. [14]

Jan 22, 2026 – Venezuela’s National Assembly advanced a bill allowing private operators to manage fields, market output, and use arbitration, cutting royalties to 15‑30 % and framing the reform as a “historic qualitative leap” to boost production. [13]

Jan 23, 2026 – The Assembly backed a hydrocarbons reform letting foreign firms run fields at their own risk; Rodríguez argued oil is useless without output, noted $300 m of a $500 m crude‑sale deal already received, and highlighted ongoing political‑prisoner concerns. [12]

Jan 26, 2026 – Analysts drew Iraq‑era lessons, warning that U.S. “go‑in‑get‑oil” ideas ignore the decade‑long, costly reconstruction there; they noted Venezuela’s armed groups and the U.S. plan to hire private contractors could repeat Iraq’s security‑vacuum pitfalls. [11]

Jan 30, 2026 – Venezuela’s parliament approved a new contract model for foreign firms after U.S. sanctions were lifted; Trump proposed a $100 bn investment, production had collapsed to ≈860 k bpd, locals expressed hope yet feared exploitation, and Exxon’s CEO called the country “uninvestable.” [1]

Jan 30, 2026 – The National Assembly passed a hydrocarbons reform permitting private firms, removing PDVSA’s majority‑control requirement; the U.S. Treasury issued a general licence easing oil‑related sanctions, tied oil‑sale proceeds to humanitarian funding, and American Airlines announced flights to Venezuela after Trump’s intervention. [2]

Jan 30, 2026 – Venezuela’s legislature approved an oil‑privatization bill capping royalties at 30 %, allowing arbitration, and awaiting Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s signature; the move followed the Maduro capture and included a sanctions‑relief licence that excludes China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Cuba. [9]

Feb 1, 2026 – On Air Force One, Trump announced the United States was “starting to talk to Cuba,” after weeks of halting Cuban oil supplies and threatening tariffs on nations exporting oil to Havana; Mexico became a focal point, and Trump predicted the Cuban regime’s imminent collapse. [7]

Feb 5, 2026 – Cuba signaled openness to dialogue but rejected U.S. regime‑change demands; Secretary of State Rubio pushed for regime change while the administration threatened oil‑tariff measures, and Cuba blamed U.S. sanctions for its energy crisis, calling the pressure “equivalent to war.” [6]

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