June 2025 – The National Taxpayer Advocate reports that the IRS workforce drops from 102,113 to 75,702 employees, warning that the steep reduction could make the upcoming filing season “rocky” and strain service capacity [9].

July 2025 – President Donald Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a sweeping tax‑cut package that eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, expands senior deductions and adds new state‑and‑local tax limits, setting the stage for larger refunds in the 2026 filing season [5][6][7].

Sept 30 2025 – The IRS begins phasing out paper refund checks in most cases, following an executive order to modernize federal payments and urging taxpayers to use direct deposit, prepaid debit cards or digital wallets for refunds [1][8][14].

Dec 11‑12 2025 – White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announces that Americans will receive an extra $1,000 in their 2026 tax refunds, citing Piper Sandler analysis that refunds will be about one‑third larger than usual [7].

Dec 24 2025 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells the All‑In Podcast that retroactive provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill could generate $1,000‑$2,000 refunds per household and total $100‑$150 billion in the first quarter of 2026 [5].

Dec 25 2025 – IRS CEO Frank Bisignano appears on Fox Business and predicts the “largest refunds ever,” saying more than 94 % of middle‑class Americans will see a boost and that unchanged withholding will drive a “gigantic refund year” [6].

Dec 29 2025 – A Newsweek piece highlights the Trump administration’s public messaging that massive tax refunds are forthcoming for the next year, reinforcing the administration’s narrative on the One Big Beautiful Bill’s impact [4].

End 2025 – The IRS workforce shrinks to roughly 74,000 employees, a 27 % cut from the start of the year, prompting concerns from the National Taxpayer Advocate and the Treasury Inspector General about backlogs and reduced processing capacity for 2026 [2].

Jan 26 2026 – The IRS opens the 2026 filing season for 2025 returns, expects about 164 million individual filings (mostly e‑filed), and reiterates the April 15 deadline while confirming that its information systems are updated for the new One Big Beautiful Bill provisions and online tools are ready for taxpayers [1][13][15].

Jan 2026 – Treasury Secretary Bessent calls 2026 a “gigantic refund year,” projecting average refunds of $3,800‑$4,200 and total first‑quarter refunds of $100‑$150 billion as retroactive tax cuts flow through unchanged withholding [3].

Jan 2026 – The White House predicts the largest refunds in U.S. history, citing the Working Families Tax Cuts Act (part of the One Big Beautiful Bill) and estimating average refunds could rise by $1,000‑$1,200, reaching roughly $4,200 per filer [3].

Jan 2026 – IRS guidance notes that e‑filed returns with direct deposit typically receive refunds within 21 days, while paper returns may take four weeks or more; the agency also warns that credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit will be deposited by March 2 2026 [11][12][14].

Feb 17 2026 – The new “Math Act” takes effect, requiring the IRS to send detailed error notices that pinpoint exact line‑item mistakes and giving taxpayers a 60‑day window to contest the correction [10].

Mar 2 2026 – The IRS expects refunds for the Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit to be deposited into bank accounts or loaded onto debit cards by this date, provided filers choose direct deposit [8][12][14].

Future 2026‑2027 – The IRS plans to offer prepaid debit cards, digital wallets and limited exceptions as alternatives for taxpayers without bank accounts, continuing the shift away from paper checks as mandated by the executive order Modernizing Payments [1].