June 2025 – The United States conducts B‑2 stealth bomber strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, marking the first major U.S. kinetic action against Iran’s enrichment program and setting a precedent for future escalation [4].

Dec 28 2025 – Nationwide protests erupt in Iran after the rial collapses, quickly spreading to major cities and prompting a harsh security crackdown [22].

Jan 21 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister warns it will use “everything it has” if attacked again, while the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group transits the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean and U.S. F‑15E fighters and HIMARS are repositioned in the region [22].

Jan 23 2026 – President Trump declares an “armada” of ships, including the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, is heading toward Iran “just in case,” and the death toll from the crackdown is reported between 3,100 (official) and over 4,500 (activists) [21].

Jan 24 2026 – IRGC commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour warns the U.S. and Israel that Iran’s forces have “finger on the trigger,” while European airlines suspend Dubai flights amid rising tensions [28].

Jan 24 2026 – A senior Iranian official tells Newsweek that a regional collapse would benefit Israel, urging diplomacy over war [19].

Jan 25 2026 – Iran unveils a giant anti‑U.S. mural in Tehran’s Enghelab Square depicting a blood‑stained USS Abraham Lincoln, while the U.S. Central Command confirms the carrier strike group has entered the Indian Ocean [27].

Jan 26 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln and three destroyers arrive in the Middle East, operating in the Indian Ocean and adding roughly 5,700 U.S. service members to the theater [26].

Jan 27 2026 – Tehran posts threatening billboards in Revolution Square showing a blood‑splattered carrier deck, and President Trump reiterates that the “armada” is positioned “just in case” [17].

Jan 28 2026 – CENTCOM announces a multi‑day air exercise to prove U.S. airmen can disperse and generate combat sorties, while the carrier group is already on station and Trump repeats the “armada” warning [16].

Jan 29 2026 – Iran announces deployment of 1,000 strategic drones across its armed forces, and the U.S. adds the nuclear‑powered carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to join USS Abraham Lincoln in the region as a contingency [14][7].

Jan 29 2026 – The EU moves to list the IRGC as a terrorist organization in response to the protest crackdown, aligning with U.S. and Canadian designations [15].

Jan 30 2026 – The U.S. expands its Middle‑East buildup: THAAD and Patriot batteries arrive at Al Udeid Air Base, additional F‑15E Strike Eagles and an E‑11A communications relay jet land in Qatar, and a multiday combat‑power exercise begins [4].

Jan 31 2026 – CENTCOM issues a direct warning that any “unsafe behavior” by Iran’s IRGC near U.S. forces in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger escalation, as Iran schedules a two‑day live‑fire naval drill in the waterway [12].

Feb 1 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns that a U.S. attack would spark a regional war, while the USS Abraham Lincoln operates in the Arabian Sea and Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says trust in the U.S. has eroded but “fruitful” negotiations continue [2][11].

Feb 3 2026 – An F‑35C from USS Abraham Lincoln shoots down an Iranian Shahed‑139 drone that aggressively approaches the carrier 500 mi off Iran; IRGC gunboats and a Mohajer drone then harass the U.S.–flagged tanker Stena Imperative, prompting USS McFaul to escort it safely [1][3][9][10].

Feb 3 2026 – Diplomatic talks slated for later in the week are disrupted after Tehran asks to move negotiations to Oman, exclude regional participants, and focus solely on the nuclear issue [3][1].

Feb 4 2026 – President Trump reiterates that the U.S. keeps “a range of options” on the table, including a major strike, while Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian orders “fair and equitable” talks with the United States [8][1].

Feb 4 2026 – Iran temporarily closes parts of the Strait of Hormuz and conducts live‑fire exercises, a rare escalation that threatens 20 % of global oil flow [6].

Feb 16 2026 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says “radical Shia clerics” make real deals “very difficult,” as Iran offers to dilute its 60 % enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and the U.S. sends the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to join the Lincoln group [7].

Feb 18 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader warns the United States that even the world’s strongest army could receive a “slap” that prevents it from recovering, underscoring Tehran’s readiness to target U.S. interests after the Strait of Hormuz closure [6].

Feb 18 2026 – Planned U.S.–Iran talks remain on the agenda, with White House envoy Steve Witkoff expected to meet Iranian officials in Turkey or Oman later in the month [1][8].