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Iran Allows Campus Protests Within Red Lines as U.S. Carrier Group Arrives

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  • Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday
    Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday
    Image: BBC
    Students at Tehran's al-Zahra University set the flag of the Islamic Republic on fire at a gathering on Monday (X/Mamlekate, BBC Verify) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
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  • Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday
    Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday
    Image: BBC
    Students at the Isfahan University of Technology displayed the pre-1979 "lion and sun" flag of Iran on Monday (X/Mamlekate) Source Full size
  • Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan
    Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan
    Image: BBC
    Several people fought in the street as an activist was detained on Saturday in the city of Abdanan (X/eisabazyar1) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
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  • La porte-parole du gouvernement iranien, Fatemeh Mohajerani (à droite), en compagnie du premier vice-président de la République islamique, Mohammad Reza Aref, lors d’une cérémonie commémorative marquant le 40ᵉ jour de deuil des victimes du « terrorisme » tuées lors des précédentes manifestations contre le pouvoir, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026.ATTA KENARE / AFP
    La porte-parole du gouvernement iranien, Fatemeh Mohajerani (à droite), en compagnie du premier vice-président de la République islamique, Mohammad Reza Aref, lors d’une cérémonie commémorative marquant le 40ᵉ jour de deuil des victimes du « terrorisme » tuées lors des précédentes manifestations contre le pouvoir, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026.ATTA KENARE / AFP
    Image: Le Monde
    La porte-parole du gouvernement iranien, Fatemeh Mohajerani (à droite), en compagnie du premier vice-président de la République islamique, Mohammad Reza Aref, lors d’une cérémonie commémorative marquant le 40ᵉ jour de deuil des victimes du « terrorisme » tuées lors des précédentes manifestations contre le pouvoir, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026.ATTA KENARE / AFP (ATTA KENARE / AFP) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • Capture d’écran d’une vidéo sur les réseaux sociaux et vérifiées par les équipes de l’Agence France-Presse, à l’université technologique Amirkabir de Téhéran, le 21 février 2026.- / AFP
    Capture d’écran d’une vidéo sur les réseaux sociaux et vérifiées par les équipes de l’Agence France-Presse, à l’université technologique Amirkabir de Téhéran, le 21 février 2026.- / AFP
    Image: Le Monde
    Capture d’écran d’une vidéo sur les réseaux sociaux et vérifiées par les équipes de l’Agence France-Presse, à l’université technologique Amirkabir de Téhéran, le 21 février 2026.- / AFP (- / AFP) Source Full size

Student demonstrations resumed on Feb 21‑24 across Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and other universities. After a brief suspension of in‑person classes, crowds gathered at Sharif, Amirkabir, Shahid Beheshti, Amir Kabir, and several campuses in Mashhad and Isfahan, marking the first coordinated rallies since the January crackdown [5][4][2][1]. Video verification by BBC Persian and local media confirmed simultaneous marches at eight Tehran universities and additional sites in the east and west [2]. The protests spread further on Feb 22, with sit‑ins and chants honoring the thousands killed in January [4].

Protesters burned the Islamic Republic flag and chanted anti‑leader slogans, some invoking the pre‑1979 “lion and sun.” AFP‑verified footage showed flag‑burning at Sharif University, while participants shouted “mort au dictateur” and “death to the dictator” targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [5][1]. BBC footage captured “woman, life, freedom” chants alongside calls for a monarchy and praise for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi [2]. CNN reported clashes between pro‑government Basij units and students at Amirkabir, Sharif and Science & Industry universities, with both sides brandishing national symbols [3].

The government announced it would permit protests provided they respect “red lines” protecting sacred sites and the national flag. Spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told state media that demonstrations are a “natural right” but warned against targeting “les lieux sacrés et le drapeau” [1]. Authorities emphasized that any breach of these limits would trigger security action, while allowing limited gatherings to continue [1].

Death‑toll figures remain sharply contested between Tehran, international monitors and U.S. officials. Iranian officials cited 3,117 fatalities, mostly security personnel or bystanders, in official statements [2][4]. The U.S.–based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported at least 7,015 deaths, including 6,508 protesters and 226 children [2][4][6]. Former President Donald Trump later referenced a figure of roughly 32,000 deaths in public remarks [2].

U.S. naval pressure escalated with the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group and a second carrier, raising the regional warship count to 17. Le Monde noted the carrier’s transit through the Strait of Gibraltar on Feb 21, joining an existing carrier already operating in the Middle East [5]. CNN confirmed the carrier group’s movement toward the region as Trump weighed a limited strike [3]. An adviser to Trump told Axios there was a 90 % chance of a U.S.–Israeli strike within weeks, citing stalled nuclear talks [6].

Diplomatic talks continued, with Iran offering a limited highly enriched uranium (HEU) concession and a draft counter‑proposal expected soon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a draft counter‑proposal to be ready within days and scheduled indirect talks in Geneva for later this week and early March [3]. Tehran signaled willingness to export part of its HEU stockpile, dilute its purity, and join a regional enrichment consortium in exchange for recognition of its peaceful enrichment rights [3]. BBC reported parallel Swiss talks indicating progress on curbing Tehran’s nuclear activities, though Trump warned a decision would be known within ten days [4].

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Timeline

Dec 28, 2025 – Protests erupt in Tehran over worsening economics, quickly spreading nationwide and becoming one of the deadliest periods of unrest, with participants reporting over 6,000 deaths and fears the toll could exceed 25,000 [3].

Dec 31, 2025 – Demonstrations spread from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to cities such as Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz, fueled by a record‑low rial; Polymarket odds of regime change drop to 16 % as the UN reinstates nuclear‑related sanctions [25].

Jan 1, 2026 – President Masoud Pezeshkian warns that officials who ignore the economic crisis “may go to hell,” while pledging dialogue amid widening protests [24].

Jan 2, 2026 – At least seven people are killed as unrest reaches rural provinces, including three deaths in Azna and a Basij volunteer killed in Kouhdasht [23].

Jan 3‑4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares “rioters must be put in their place,” authorising harsh repression; death toll rises to at least 15, Iran announces it has stopped uranium enrichment, and Trump warns the U.S. “may intervene” if killings continue [27].

Jan 5, 2026 – Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei orders no leniency for rioters; the government announces a universal cash allowance and both Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu issue warnings over Iran’s response to the protests [22].

Jan 8‑9, 2026 – Protests surge in Tehran and Mashhad, with BBC‑verified footage showing peaceful night marches; the regime imposes a near‑total internet blackout, Khamenei accuses demonstrators of acting for Trump, European leaders condemn the violence, and the judiciary vows “decisive” punishments [21, 17, 18, 20].

Jan 10, 2026 – Thousands gather at Tehran’s Behesht‑e‑Zahra cemetery as families bury victims; hospitals report overwhelming numbers of casualties amid the blackout [8].

Jan 12, 2026 – Bazaar shopkeepers spark nationwide anti‑government protests across all 31 provinces, with HRANA estimating over 500 dead and 10,700 arrests; a futsal referee and a Kurdish student are among those killed [15, 16].

Jan 13, 2026 – HRANA reports the death toll tops 2,403; President Trump urges Iranians to keep demonstrating and warns of “strong action” if executions proceed, while exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi calls on the army to defect [14].

Jan 14, 2026 – HRANA counts about 2,400 deaths, including 12 children; Trump claims the killings have stopped and later vows “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters, while the UN rights chief urges an end to the violence and restoration of internet access [12, 11, 13, 14].

Jan 16, 2026 – Trump thanks Iran for canceling the hanging of over 800 prisoners and says he respects the decision, even as activists still tally a rising death toll of 2,797 [10].

Jan 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledges “thousands” killed in an “inhuman, savage” manner and blames the United States; Trump signals a limited strike and the United States builds military presence near Iran, while Swiss talks report nuclear‑program progress and Trump says a decision will be known within ten days [5, 2].

Jan 18‑19, 2026 – Khamenei repeats that “thousands” have died, citing HRANA’s figure of over 3,600, and accuses Donald Trump of inciting unrest; Trump urges regime change and threatens “very strong” U.S. action if executions continue [9, 13].

Jan 21‑23, 2026 – Fresh wave of university student protests spreads to eight Tehran campuses and cities such as Mashhad and Isfahan after classes resume; clashes with Basij forces occur, and death‑toll figures remain disputed (HRANA > 7,000, Trump cites ~32,000, officials 3,117) [1, 2].

Feb 4, 2026 – Khamenei warns a U.S. strike would trigger regional war while allowing Iran back into nuclear talks; he authorises “rioters must be put in their place,” noting over 6,700 deaths and the Revolutionary Guard’s dominant role [6].

Feb 9, 2026 – The regime shuts down internet and international calls after Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s call for demonstrations; protests continue in five provinces despite the blackout, with human‑rights groups estimating at least 7,000 killed and 50,000 detained [28, 26, 20].

Feb 18‑19, 2026 – Anti‑regime protests erupt in five provinces despite a harsh crackdown; a U.S. adviser estimates a 90 % chance of a U.S.–Israel strike within weeks, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group moves into the region, and the United States sets a Mar 1 deadline for Iraq over a prime‑minister nomination [28].

Feb 21, 2026 – Students march at Sharif University chanting “death to the dictator,” coinciding with the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford and three destroyers to the Mediterranean and joint Iran‑Russia naval drills; President Pezeshkian declares Iran will not yield to external pressure [30, 2].

Feb 22, 2026 – University students resume large‑scale anti‑government protests at Shahid Beheshti, Amir Kabir and other campuses, honoring the thousands killed in January; the U.S. continues to build forces near Iran as Trump weighs a limited strike, and Swiss talks report headway on curbing Tehran’s nuclear activities [2].

Feb 24, 2026 – Iran’s government states that students may protest “within red lines,” specifically protecting sacred sites and the Islamic Republic flag, while HRANA claims security forces have killed more than 7,000 people [29].

Future (as of Feb 2026) – Iran’s council of clerics will select Khamenei’s successor, a process that could spark internal conflict; the United States expects to announce within ten days whether a nuclear deal is reached or to proceed with military options, and a U.S. strike is deemed “90 % likely” in the coming weeks [6, 28].

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