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Ukraine Reclaims Hundreds of Square Kilometers as Russia Tightens Internet Controls and Faces Drone‑Missile Assaults

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  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
  • None
    None
    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE»
    Image: Le Monde
    Le général Oleksandr Syrsky, commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, dans un lieu non divulgué, en Ukraine, le 7 février 2026.VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE» (VIRGINIE NGUYEN HOANG/HL/HUMA POUR «LE MONDE») Source Full size

Territorial Gains Confirmed Across Multiple Sources Zelensky told AFP on Feb 20 that Ukrainian forces liberated roughly 300 sq km in southern Ukraine, a figure echoed by ISW’s open‑source analysis that documents at least 168.9 sq km reclaimed since Jan 1 2026, including villages east of Novopavlivka and north‑west of Verbove [1]. Newsweek reports a five‑day surge from Feb 11‑15 that added 201 sq km, the fastest advance in 2½ years, confirming a sustained offensive momentum [4]. All three outlets agree the recaptures occurred amid disrupted Russian Starlink usage and intensified Ukrainian counter‑offensives.

Russia Enacts Broad FSB Authority Over Internet Services On Feb 20 President Putin signed a decree obliging mobile operators to cut communications on FSB request, expanding the agency’s power to block nationwide services such as Telegram and removing the “emerging security threat” qualifier [1]. The FSB alleged Ukrainian intelligence harvests Telegram data for military purposes, while the Russian Ministry of Defence promoted a secret “military messenger” as a replacement [1]. Milbloggers expressed skepticism, interpreting the move as a prelude to a full Telegram shutdown.

Ukrainian FP‑5 Missiles Strike Key Russian Defense and Energy Sites The Ukrainian General Staff reported FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missiles hit the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant—producer of Yars ICBMs, Bulava SLBMs, Iskander‑M and Kinzhal missiles—and set fire to the Neftegorsk gas‑processing plant in Samara [1]. Satellite heat signatures and official acknowledgments confirmed the attacks, marking a rare deep‑strike on Russia’s strategic weapons industry [1]. These strikes coincide with Ukraine’s broader push to degrade Russian war‑fighting capabilities.

Russian Drone Operations Depend on Belarusian Cellular Infrastructure Pro‑Ukrainian hacker groups disclosed a six‑month operation that exploited hacked Russian accounts to access drone‑monitoring systems, revealing reliance on civilian cellular towers in Belarus for navigation [1]. The data showed drone routes that previously crossed Polish NATO airspace, underscoring Belarus’s de‑facto partnership in Russia’s war effort [1]. This exploitation highlights vulnerabilities in Russia’s unmanned‑aircraft logistics chain.

Russian Propaganda Overstates Gains While ISW Data Shows Limited Advances Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy claimed Russian forces seized about 900 sq km and 42 settlements since Jan 2026, presenting a narrative of imminent victory [3]. ISW satellite and open‑source analysis contradicts this, estimating only 572 sq km and 19 settlements captured, a shortfall of 23 settlements and 328 sq km [3]. The discrepancy illustrates a coordinated Kremlin information campaign ahead of the 2026 Duma elections.

Ukrainian General Syrsky Says Russian Casualties Outpace Recruitment In a Feb 22 interview, General Oleksandr Syrsky described the current phase as “extremely difficult” and asserted that Russian losses now exceed the number of new recruits Russia can field [2]. He credited the 2024 “Koursk” operation for bolstering Ukrainian resilience and warned that without recent offensives, the situation could have deteriorated further [2]. Syrsky refrained from political commentary, focusing solely on battlefield realities.

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Timeline

2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, opening a multi‑year war that reshapes the region’s security landscape[1].

2023 – Vitaly, a ceramics artist who volunteers for Ukraine’s 2022 defence, dies in Donbas; his first burial takes place in Slovyansk[1].

2024 – Ukrainian forces carry out the “Koursk” deep‑strike operation inside Russian territory, demonstrating Kyiv’s ability to hit strategic targets far behind the front[30].

Nov 26, 2025 – Russian advances in Donetsk stall, averaging only 0.12 km per day in Pokrovsk; the Kremlin equips Belgorod reservists with heavy artillery and thermobaric weapons, signalling a shift toward reserve‑unit deployment[29].

Nov 28, 2025 – President Putin claims “significant gains” including near‑encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but ISW analysis shows far smaller progress; simultaneously, Ukrainian presidential chief Andriy Yermak resigns, prompting a “reset” of the negotiating team[28].

Nov 29, 2025 – Russian drones breach Moldovan airspace for over an hour; Ukraine’s domestically built Sting interceptor down‑shoots a Geran‑3 drone, marking its first successful kill of that type[27].

Nov 30, 2025 – U.S. officials hold high‑level talks with Ukraine in Hallandale Beach, Florida, while the Kremlin signals likely rejection of the U.S. peace proposal and Russian troops continue limited fighting around Pokrovsk[27].

Dec 1, 2025 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Ukrainian security chief Rustem Umerov in Florida; the Netherlands pledges €250 million to Kyiv; Russia’s Pacific Fleet upgrades a naval infantry brigade to a division; Lithuania suspends Vilnius airport after detecting ~60 balloons, a suspected Belarusian incursion[26].

Dec 2, 2025 – President Putin meets Witkoff in Moscow and receives the U.S. 28‑point peace plan; Russian officials announce capture of Pokrovsk, a claim Kyiv disputes as fighting continues in the city’s north[26].

Dec 3, 2025 – Moscow releases video of a flag‑raising in Pokrovsk, reiterating the capture claim; AP‑obtained drone footage shows Myrnohrad nearly encircled; Russian media launch a cognitive‑warfare narrative about tiny border raids, though ISW finds no evidence of territorial change[7][13][19].

Dec 4, 2025 – In an India interview, Putin reiterates original war aims—protecting ethnic Russians, the Russian language and Orthodox Church, and blocking NATO expansion—while rejecting the U.S. peace proposal[24].

Dec 5, 2025 – The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy criticises NATO allies over “unrealistic expectations” for the Ukraine war; President Putin rejects several points of the U.S. 28‑point plan, labeling them unacceptable[10][12].

Dec 6, 2025 – Russia launches 704 missiles and drones in an overnight barrage, targeting rail and energy infrastructure; peace talks in Washington condition progress on Russian “good‑faith” actions; the Pokrovsk‑Myrnohrad logistics corridor remains under pressure[22].

Dec 23, 2025 – Ukraine withdraws from the embattled town of Siversk to preserve combat capability as Russian forces close in on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk; Russia’s control of Donbas reaches ~75 % of Donetsk and 99 % of Luhansk; civilian casualties rise after widespread drone and missile strikes on energy sites[2].

Dec 23, 2025 – Newsweek’s 2025 front‑line map shows the line moving little, with Russia holding or expanding in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian gains remain limited despite heavy losses[9].

Dec 28, 2025 – President Putin rejects the U.S. peace plan outright and demands Ukraine withdraw from all unoccupied Donbas territories as a precondition for any ceasefire[28].

Jan 1, 2026 – Russian brigades push southward across open countryside in Zaporizhzhia, intensifying fighting around Huliaipole; a Russian Su‑30SM2 flies near NATO airspace and is intercepted by Spanish EF‑18s during Baltic Air Policing[4][18].

Jan 28, 2026 – The Trump administration ties additional U.S. weapons and a NATO‑style Article 5 pledge to Ukraine’s willingness to cede the entire Donbas, a move ISW warns would be a strategic error[21].

Feb 4, 2026 – War widow Natalia exhumes her husband Vitaly’s remains from Slovyansk and reburies them in Kyiv with a Ukrainian flag and military honours, fearing Russian occupation of the original grave site[1].

Feb 5, 2026 – The United States and Russia restore a high‑level military hotline in Abu Dhabi after a four‑year hiatus; a prisoner swap returns 157 Russian and 150 Ukrainian servicemen; Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s power grid while the front remains active[11].

Feb 5‑6, 2026 – Kremlin officials, including Lavrov, reject Western security guarantees and cite the 2022 Istanbul protocol to justify dismissing meaningful guarantees; Russia prepares limited strategic reserves for a possible summer offensive as early as late April, but faces manpower shortfalls; SpaceX’s February 5 shutdown of unregistered Starlink terminals curtails Russian frontline assaults; an assassination attempt injures GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseyev[20].

Feb 8, 2026 – Russia launches a cognitive‑warfare campaign with tiny border raids, claiming capture of Sydorivka despite no evidence; Ukrainian Shahed drones carry rear‑facing R‑60 missiles for self‑defence; Kyiv opens ten export centres and joint drone production lines in Germany and the UK, signalling growing defence self‑sufficiency; Ukraine hits Russia’s Votkinsk missile plant and Neftegorsk gas‑processing facility with FP‑5 cruise missiles; Russian drones rely on Belarusian cellular towers for navigation, testing NATO‑airspace incursions[19][16].

Feb 9‑10, 2026 – Foreign Minister Lavrov blames the United States for “bad‑faith” negotiations and invokes the Istanbul talks to reject security guarantees; Roskomnadzor throttles Telegram traffic as a test ahead of a possible full block before the September Duma elections; milbloggers warn the slowdown will cripple Russian C2; Russia acquires 22 foreign machine tools to boost tank and artillery barrel production[18].

Feb 11‑15, 2026 – Ukraine’s counter‑offensive recaptures 201 sq km in five days—the fastest advance since mid‑2023—while ISW calculates Russian‑held territory falls below 18 % of Ukraine; Moscow fires roughly 400 drones and 29 missiles ahead of Geneva talks, targeting energy and military‑industrial sites[8].

Feb 17‑18, 2026 – U.S.‑brokered Geneva talks convene, with Russia demanding retention of large parts of Donetsk and Ukraine insisting any territorial concession would be illegal and unpopular[8].

Feb 20, 2026 – President Zelensky claims Ukrainian forces liberate about 300 sq km in the south; ISW confirms at least 168.9 sq km reclaimed along the Dnipropetrovsk‑Zaporizhia border; Putin signs a decree empowering the FSB to block Telegram nationwide; Ukraine strikes the Votkinsk missile‑production plant and the Neftegorsk gas‑processing facility; Russian drones continue using Belarusian cellular infrastructure for navigation[16].

Feb 21, 2026 – The Kremlin propagates a false victory narrative, claiming capture of 900 sq km and 42 settlements since January, while ISW estimates only 572 sq km and 19 settlements taken; authorities open a case against former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev for “discrediting” the army; Ukrainian‑Moldovan services detain ten suspects in a plot to assassinate Ukrainian journalists and officials; leaked Telegram chats reveal Russian commanders discussing routine POW torture[17].

Feb 22, 2026 – Ukraine pushes forward as Russia tightens internet controls, with the FSB decree to block Telegram taking effect; Ukrainian forces report recapturing at least 168.9 sq km since the start of the year, including key villages near Novopavlivka and Verbove; Russian drones continue exploiting Belarusian towers for navigation, underscoring Belarus’s de‑facto partnership in the war[16].

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