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425 Russian Drones and Missiles Hit Ukraine as Geneva Energy‑Strike Talks Commence

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Massive Overnight Strike Targets Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure 425 Russian drones and missiles assaulted Ukraine overnight, including 396 strike drones—about 250 Shaheds—and 29 missiles such as four Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and 20 Kh‑101 cruise missiles [1]. Ukrainian air defenses downed 367 drones and 25 missiles, yet debris struck eight locations, cutting power for at least 28,000 customers in Kharkiv and tens of thousands in Odesa [1]. The coordinated attack originated from multiple directions, underscoring Russia’s capacity to launch large, multi‑vector sorties [1].

Strike Tempo Increases Ahead of Geneva Negotiations Large strike packages of 400‑700 weapons have repeatedly preceded bilateral and trilateral talks since August 2025, and the current 425‑weapon sortie follows that pattern [1]. Geneva trilateral talks began on 17 Feb 2026 with delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia, focusing on a short‑term moratorium on energy strikes [1]. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that intelligence indicated another large strike was imminent, suggesting Moscow may be tempering attacks to avoid provoking U.S. President Donald Trump [1].

Ukraine’s Air Defences Struggle Against Ballistic Missiles In January 2026 Russia fired a record 96 ballistic missiles, a surge that Ukrainian forces could not intercept [1]. All cruise missiles launched on 16‑17 Feb 2026 were shot down, largely by F‑16 and Mirage jets supplied by Western allies [1]. The failure to intercept ballistic missiles highlights Ukraine’s reliance on scarce Western air‑defence systems and the growing challenge of countering high‑speed threats [1].

Kremlin Officials Reject Compromise, Emphasize Russian Demands Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov declared Ukraine could “win” only by joining the Russian Federation, while Deputy Chair Yuri Shvytkin praised a “favorable backdrop” for future settlements [1]. Both officials reiterated that negotiations should involve only the United States, invoking the alleged “spirit of Anchorage” from the 2025 Alaska summit [1]. Their statements reinforce a broader narrative of non‑compromise despite diplomatic overtures [1].

Patrushev Issues Threats Over Shadow‑Fleet Seizures and Finland Presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev, speaking to Argumenty i Fakty, demanded a “firm rebuff” to European actions against Russian shadow‑fleet tankers and warned the navy would break any blockade [1]. He also accused Finland of preparing offensive corvettes, framing the rhetoric as part of an escalatory strategy to pressure the United States and its allies [1].

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Timeline

23 Nov 2025 – Ukraine sends a delegation to the United States to advance the outcomes of the 23 Nov Geneva talks, aiming to shape a post‑war security framework and economic recovery plan [30].

28‑29 Nov 2025 – Russia launches a massive missile‑drone strike on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, firing 36 missiles (including Kinzhal, Iskander‑M and Kh‑101) and 596 drones, killing at least three civilians, injuring 52 and cutting power to over 500,000 Kyiv customers [30].

30 Nov 2025 – Belarus deploys more than 60 balloons into Lithuanian airspace, prompting airport closures and illustrating Russia’s “Phase Zero” pressure tactics [30].

2025 (throughout the year) – President Vladimir Putin raises Russia’s VAT to 22 % and adopts a 2026‑2028 budget that generates roughly 1 trillion rubles annually, while the war economy faces inflation and reduced consumer purchasing power [30].

6 Dec 2025 – Russia unleashes 653 drones and 51 missiles on Ukraine’s Armed Forces Day, striking power stations, causing a loss of off‑site power at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and prompting Ukrainian air‑defence to down 585 drones and 30 missiles; Kyiv also strikes Russian facilities in Ryazan and Fastiv [25].

13 Dec 2025 – More than 1 million Ukrainian households lose electricity after Russia fires over 450 drones and 30 missiles at the grid, heavily damaging substations in Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson; the United States and European partners schedule high‑level peace talks in Berlin [24][23].

14 Dec 2025 – Berlin hosts a series of high‑level peace meetings involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia, marking the first major European venue for trilateral negotiations since the war began [23].

23 Dec 2025 – Russia conducts its largest winter drone‑and‑missile barrage (650 drones, 30 missiles), killing a 4‑year‑old in Zhytomyr, injuring dozens, and prompting the United States to wrap up Miami peace talks that outline a 20‑point framework and near‑final security guarantees for Ukraine [22].

26 Dec 2025 – Ukraine strikes the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov region with British‑supplied Storm Shadow missiles, damaging a key energy export hub and demonstrating the expanding long‑range strike capability of Kyiv’s forces [21].

27 Dec 2025 – Russia hits Kyiv with a massive overnight attack just two days before President Zelensky’s scheduled meeting with President Trump in the United States, underscoring the link between intensified strikes and diplomatic milestones [20].

29 Dec 2025 – Moscow accuses Ukraine of a 91‑drone assault on President Putin’s state residence in the Novgorod region, claiming the strike justifies a tougher negotiating stance; Kyiv dismisses the allegation as a fabrication [19].

30 Dec 2025 – Former President Donald Trump warns Hamas and Iran at a Florida press conference, while Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov repeats the claim that Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence, saying Moscow will review its negotiating position [18].

31 Dec 2025 – EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas rejects Russia’s residence‑attack claim as a distraction, and President Zelensky declares the peace agreement is “90 % ready,” urging parties to stay on course despite Moscow’s provocations [17].

1 Jan 2026 – Ukrainian UAVs strike a café and hotel in Khorly, Kherson, killing 24 civilians and injuring more than 50 as New Year celebrations end; Russia reports intercepting 168 Ukrainian drones across its territory that night [16].

5 Jan 2026 – U.S. national‑security officials state that no Ukrainian drone attack hit Putin’s residence, and President Trump echoes the assessment, while Zelensky meets Trump in Florida to discuss a 20‑point peace plan [15].

9 Jan 2026 – Russia deploys the hypersonic, nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missile in a massive strike on Kyiv, killing four and injuring 22, and later uses a second Oreshnik near Lviv, targeting a NATO logistics hub without reported casualties; President Putin describes the weapon as Mach 10 capable of destroying deep underground bunkers [14][13].

9 Jan 2026 – President Zelensky urges President Trump to act after the Oreshnik attacks, stressing that U.S. signals are crucial to counter Russia’s escalation and demanding stronger coordination among allies [12].

13 Jan 2026 – The United States labels Russia’s launch of an Oreshnik ballistic missile near Poland as a dangerous escalation at a UN Security Council meeting, warning that the strike tests Western resolve and threatens regional stability [11].

18 Jan 2026 – Ukrainian drone strikes cripple power in Russian‑occupied southern Ukraine, leaving over 200,000 households without electricity; a Ukrainian delegation arrives in the United States to finalize post‑war security guarantees, with a possible signing in Davos the following week [10].

24 Jan 2026 – Russia carries out fresh strikes that kill one civilian and injure 35 in Kyiv and Kharkiv, damaging energy infrastructure for 6,000 buildings as temperatures fall to –12 °C; the attacks coincide with Abu Dhabi trilateral talks and prompt Ukraine’s foreign minister to call the assault “brutal” [5].

27 Jan 2026 – Over 50 upgraded Russian drones bombard Odesa, injuring 23 (including children) and striking the power grid and apartment blocks; President Zelensky uses Telegram to demand a faster U.S. diplomatic push ahead of talks slated for 1 Feb and to impose additional sanctions on Russia [8].

28 Jan 2026 – President Zelensky condemns a Russian drone strike that kills five passengers on a Kharkiv‑region train, labeling the attack “purely terrorism” with no military justification, while Odesa suffers a heavy drone barrage that kills three and damages an energy facility [4].

29 Jan 2026 – President Trump tells a White House cabinet meeting that he personally asked President Putin to halt attacks on Kyiv for a week during the extreme cold and that Putin agreed, though the Kremlin offers no confirmation [7].

30 Jan 2026 – President Trump repeats his claim that Putin consented to a week‑long Kyiv strike pause; President Zelensky calls the statement “important” and notes ongoing UAE talks on implementing a security pause, while the United States pushes for progress in the trilateral negotiations [3].

31 Jan 2026 – The Kremlin confirms it honored President Trump’s request for an energy‑strike pause, while Russian forces execute surrendered Ukrainian border guards, highlighting a surge in war‑crime allegations; limited Russian gains appear near Lyman and Kostyantynivka [29].

1 Feb 2026 – Russian drones hit a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia and a DTEK bus carrying miners in Ternivka, killing at least 12 miners and injuring six hospital patients; Moscow’s brief pause on civilian targets expires that night, and Ukraine cooperates with SpaceX to block Russian use of Starlink for drone guidance [2].

2‑3 Feb 2026 – Russia resumes large‑scale missile‑drone attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, launching 450 drones and 71 missiles (including Iskander‑M ballistic missiles) that hit energy sites in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia and Odesa, causing heat outages for over 1,170 high‑rise buildings in Kyiv and leaving hundreds of thousands without power [27].

3 Feb 2026 – Russia fires a record‑high barrage of more than 70 ballistic and cruise missiles and 450 drones at energy facilities across Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa, while Ukraine intercepts only 38 missiles, prompting NATO to urge rapid delivery of additional air‑defence munitions [1].

17 Feb 2026 – United States, Ukraine and Russia begin Geneva trilateral talks, discussing a short‑term moratorium on energy strikes and weighing a new energy‑strike halt; President Zelensky warns that intelligence indicates another large Russian strike is imminent [6].

18 Feb 2026 – Russia launches 425 drones and missiles (including 396 Shahed‑type drones and 29 missiles such as Iskander‑M and Kh‑101) that hit energy sites in Kharkiv and Odesa, cutting power for tens of thousands while Ukrainian air‑defences down most of the incoming weapons; the strike occurs as Geneva talks continue [6].

6‑7 Feb 2026 – Russia conducts a massive overnight strike on Ukraine’s energy grid, firing 408 drones and 39 missiles that damage high‑voltage substations and affect about 600,000 customers; the United States pushes Kyiv to hold a national peace‑referendum by May 2026 and schedules a U.S.‑sponsored meeting in Miami around 12 Feb 2026 [26].

Future (May 2026) – The United States plans to press Ukraine to hold a national referendum on a peace deal, aiming for a March 2026 agreement that would lock in security guarantees and a post‑war settlement [26].

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