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Putin’s Maximalist War Aims Endure as Geneva Talks Stall and Russia Faces Economic‑Casualty Strain

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  • The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    Image: BBC
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025. Source Full size
  • President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter near Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025. Source Full size

Stalled Geneva negotiations leave maximalist demands intact The third Geneva round on Feb 18‑19 ended without a breakthrough; Russia, represented by Vladimir Medinsky, reiterated pre‑war ultimatums including a NATO non‑expansion clause and full control of occupied territories, while President Zelensky demanded reciprocal troop pull‑backs and a bilateral meeting with Putin [2][5][6]. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff claimed “meaningful progress” on the first day, but both sides reported no substantive concessions and described the talks as tense [5]. Zelensky publicly rebuked President Donald Trump’s pressure for Ukrainian compromises, labeling it “not fair” and warning any cession of undisputed Donbas land would be rejected in a referendum [3][4].

Russia’s war aims persist despite mounting casualties and fiscal pressure Western officials estimate Russia suffered roughly 9,000 more battlefield casualties than it could replace in January 2026, with total deaths reaching 35,000 in Dec 2025 and 30,000 in Jan 2026, outpacing recruitment and threatening offensive tempo [2][8][9]. The Kremlin acknowledges a “very high” financial risk as oil‑gas revenues are projected to fall about 30 % in 2026 and oil‑well drilling slipped 3.4 % in 2025, yet Putin’s administration asserts it can absorb short‑term friction [1][9]. To sustain manpower, the State Duma advanced a bill targeting “evading duty to defend the Fatherland” and prepared limited rolling reserve call‑ups, while tightening Telegram throttling and legal measures to normalize involuntary mobilizations [2][7].

Ukraine’s defense industry nears self‑sufficiency amid expanded Western aid Advisor Hanna Gvozdiar reported the Ukrainian defense industrial base grew fiftyfold to an estimated $50 billion, now supplying over 50 % of military needs, bolstered by a 12.9 billion SEK Swedish package for air‑defence and long‑range drones [1]. Kyiv secured $38 billion of additional Western military aid for 2026, including loans for drones, air‑defence systems, Gripen fighters, and Patriot interceptors, while advancing near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole [9]. Zelensky continues to demand a 15‑year (or longer) security guarantee from the United States before any settlement, emphasizing that guarantees must precede territorial concessions [7][8].

Diplomatic leverage shifts to economic talks and UN proposals Moscow separates war negotiations from bilateral U.S.–Russia economic discussions, offering limited sanctions relief in exchange for economic carrots, a strategy tracked since early 2025 [1]. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin revived a 2025 Russian proposal for a temporary UN external administration in Ukraine, framing it as a pathway to “democratic” elections, while Lavrov insisted any post‑war Ukrainian government must be “friendly” to Russia [7]. The United States appears to condition security guarantees on Ukrainian territorial concessions, linking a future pact to Moscow’s demands, further complicating the diplomatic deadlock [9].

Innovations and setbacks in battlefield technology Russian forces repurposed Geran‑2 drones as “motherships” to launch FPV drones over Sumy after losing Starlink access, demonstrating adaptive tactics amid communications disruption [1]. Conversely, the Kremlin tested the “Barrage‑1” stratospheric platform as a potential 5G NTN supplement, though analysts note it cannot replace low‑orbit satellite constellations [7]. Ukraine’s Starlink block on Feb 1 forced the Rubikon Center to halt detailed strike reporting, likely curbing the tempo of Russian drone attacks for up to six months [8].

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Timeline

2021 – The United States and Russia suspend senior‑level military‑to‑military contacts, halting a dialogue that had previously helped manage crises before the invasion of Ukraine [2].

June 2024 – President Vladimir Putin reiterates the June 2024 framework demanding Ukraine withdraw from four occupied regions and abandon its NATO bid, linking any peace to these “historical lands” [20].

July 2025 – The last direct Kyiv‑Moscow talks occur in Istanbul, producing a prisoner‑swap but no substantive progress toward ending the war [18].

August 2025 – Leaders meet at the Alaska summit in Anchorage, where Russian officials claim a U.S.–Russia understanding on ending the conflict, later citing the “Anchorage formula” that would require Ukraine to cede all of Donbas [29].

Dec 2 2025 – President Vladimir Putin rejects a U.S.‑presented Ukraine peace proposal, ending the Moscow meeting without an agreement [30].

Dec 3 2025 – Deputy Security Council Chair Dmitry Medvedev says Russia will honor the New START treaty for another year only if the United States does the same, tying arms‑control renewal to progress on Ukraine [29].

Dec 10 2025 – President Donald Trump tells reporters that President Volodymyr Zelensky must be “realistic” about the war’s duration, noting that 82 % of Ukrainians want a settlement [24].

Dec 14 2025 – President Zelensky announces he will drop Ukraine’s NATO membership bid in exchange for legally binding, U.S.‑backed security guarantees comparable to Article 5, while rejecting a U.S. plan to withdraw from Donetsk [21][22][23].

Dec 17 2025 – President Putin warns that if Kyiv and its Western allies reject Moscow’s demands, Russia will expand its “buffer security zone” along the Ukrainian border [20].

Dec 19 2025 – In a televised Direct Line address, Putin vows no new Russian operations if the West respects Russia’s interests, reiterating the June 2024 demands on Ukraine and NATO [19].

Dec 21 2025 – The Kremlin denies that any three‑way talks among the United States, Ukraine and Russia are being prepared in Miami, despite U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s shuttle diplomacy [18].

Dec 26 2025 – Zelensky confirms a meeting with President Trump in Florida, says the 20‑point peace plan is about 90 % ready, and pledges a nationwide referendum if the plan requires border changes [16][17].

Dec 27 2025 – Ukraine‑U.S. security‑guarantee talks leave several issues unresolved, especially the scope of guarantees and the status of Russian‑occupied territories [15]; the same day, Russia launches a missile and drone strike on Kyiv ahead of the planned Florida talks [14].

Dec 28‑29 2025 – Trump and Zelensky meet in Florida, signal “progress” on a peace deal but set no deadline, while Russia conducts its longest‑year assault on Kyiv with drones and missiles [13].

Dec 30 2025 – Negotiators say talks are at a final stage but warn that Donbas territory and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant could still derail a settlement [12].

Jan 2 2026 – U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Witkoff meets President Putin in Moscow to discuss the peace process, as President Zelensky tours Berlin, Paris and Warsaw to rally support [25].

Jan 3 2026 – Zelensky calls for a U.S.‑led leaders’ summit in Washington by month‑end to finalize security guarantees, economic agreements and sequencing plans, while Kyiv hosts a security‑allies meeting with about 15 countries [10][11].

Jan 6 2026 – British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron sign a declaration to deploy troops on Ukrainian soil if a peace agreement is reached, framing the move as a long‑term deterrent [9].

Jan 8 2026 – Zelensky states that the bilateral U.S.–Ukraine security‑guarantees document is “essentially ready” for finalisation after intensive talks in Paris [8].

Jan 21 2026 – Trump announces he will meet Zelensky in Davos to discuss ending the war, while Kyiv endures a bitter winter with 4,000 buildings without heating and 60 % of the city without power [7].

Jan 22 2026 – Envoy Steve Witkoff tells reporters at Davos that the war’s end hinges on “one issue” that is solvable, praising Ukraine’s negotiating team; Zelensky pins the next trilateral talks to the United Arab Emirates after his Davos meeting with Trump [6][5].

Jan 23 2026 – Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators hold the first three‑way meeting in Abu Dhabi, with Trump pressuring both sides for a deal and Zelensky describing the talks as a step toward ending the war, though Donbas remains the main deadlock [3][4].

Jan 27 2026 – Zelensky announces that the U.S.–Ukrainian security‑guarantee document is “100 percent ready” and awaits signing by the Ukrainian parliament and U.S. Congress; Europe adds a “layer” of guarantees, including a Coalition of the Willing and a path to EU membership by 2027 [29].

Feb 2 2026 – Senator Marco Rubio says the United States and Ukraine have completed their security‑guarantee agreement, noting a consensus on a small EU troop contingent backed by the U.S., and signals a U.S. representative may attend the Abu Dhabi talks on Feb 1 [28].

Feb 4 2026 – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismisses Western security guarantees as an “ultimatum,” while the United States secures a new LNG supply route to Ukraine via the Vertical Gas Corridor, with the first cargo slated for March 2026 [27].

Feb 4‑5 2026 – Abu Dhabi trilateral talks continue, with Ukrainian officials calling the sessions “meaningful and productive” and the Kremlin rejecting any Western troop guarantees as “categorically unacceptable” [27][26].

Feb 5 2026 – Senior U.S. and Russian officers resume regular military‑to‑military dialogue on the margins of the Abu Dhabi meetings, discussing a six‑month bridge to extend the New START treaty that expires that day [2].

Feb 10 2026 – Abu Dhabi negotiations proceed constructively, with Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov praising the talks as “constructive” [26].

Feb 18 2026 – U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff declares “meaningful progress” after the first day of Geneva negotiations, praising President Trump’s role, while both sides report heavy drone activity and Ukraine continues to demand robust security guarantees [1].

Future (post‑Feb 2026) – Negotiators aim to formalise the New START extension beyond its Feb 5 expiry, while the UK‑France troop‑deployment declaration and the U.S.–Ukrainian security‑guarantee pact await parliamentary ratification before any peace settlement can be implemented.

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